Week 1: It’s Here, and It’s Spectacular - 14 comments

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Football — the real football, not that Trent Edwards/Brady Quinn stuff that’s been served up on a platter for the past month — is back for 2012. Changes you’ll be seeing in Week 1 include replacement referees, longer games laced with more automatic reviews, later afternoon start times and some new QB in Denver. A change you’ll see right now involves our weekly start/sit column.

In the past, we’ve used a formula to give you each player’s start-ability on a 100-1 scale. This season, we’ll be offering up average rankings from our list-makers, meaning that for the first time in years in this space, lower numbers reign supreme.

Thanks to truninerfan for ranking all six fantasy positions with me, to murphysxm for hitting QB/RB/WR/TE and to unc_rules1540 for ranking QBs and WRs. I’ve combined their rankings with my own, which are published at Fantasy Pros along with those from analysts across the fantasy landscape, to give you the Cafe’s first Start/Sit of the season.

Start: Robert Griffin III. We’re clearly buying into the RG3 hype in Week 1, ranking him ahead of proven options like Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning. You may have heard something about the Saints defense this offseason, and a rash of injuries could make for a highlight-package debut for the Heisman winner.

Sit: Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning may be the biggest “name” commodity in the history of fantasy football, but if you can get past that Hall-of-Fame resume, you have a quarterback who still has trouble making all the throws necessary to succeed playing in an offense with a poor route-runner as a No. 1 option and a subpar line. If I owned him in any league (which didn’t happen in any of my drafts due to risk aversion), I’d sell high after one great performance. We don’t think that’s coming this week.

Start: Rashad Jennings. Maurice Jones-Drew is back, but he’s relegated to carrying Jennings’s equipment this week, as the Jaguars have committed to starting the guy that’s been in camp all offseason. Against the Vikings, I think the Jags offense will consist of Jennings run on first, Jennings run on second, pass to Justin Blackmon on third. Count on 25 touches for the borderline RB1.

Sit: Isaac Redman. Redman has been drafted like a starter all throughout the preseason, but it turns out that he’s not only stymied by the impending return of Rashard Mendenhall (who could be back by Week 6) but also the emergence of Jonathan Dwyer, who seems likely to draw the start in Week 1 and could have a slight edge in touches by the end of the game. Sadly, Redman’s peak value came and went before any real football was played.

Start: Justin Blackmon. Let’s double up on Jaguars this week — did I just say that? The preseason has shown us that the Jaguars plan to take advantage of Blackmon’s catch-and-run abilities, a smart move considering Blaine Gabbert’s inability to stretch defenses. That’s going to mean a lot of wind sprints for Laurent Robinson and plenty of targets for Blackmon each week. I think he’s a safe WR2 at worst.

Sit: Santonio Holmes. The Jets offense looked like a complete mess this preseason, and while poor preseason play isn’t always a harbinger of things to come, fantasy owners can’t feel comfortable going to Holmes in Week 1, especially with Mario Williams likely setting up shop in the Jets backfield and pressing Mark Sanchez into five-yard ducks all day.

Start: Kyle Rudolph. This Vikings second-year tight end is one of my favorite breakout candidates of the year. Fully recovered from an injury that dogged him all of last year and part of his final college season, Rudolph has developed good chemistry with Christian Ponder. The absence of Jerome Simpson will also help Rudolph immediately establish himself as an under-the-radar TE1 option moving forward.

Bench: Jacob Tamme. His familiarity with Peyton Manning led to Tamme shooting up draft boards throughout August, but he could very well split targets evenly with Joel Dreessen this year. We still like Tamme as the better option, but not enough to rely on him as a starter until we see how things develop in Denver.

Start: Buffalo Bills. The addition of Mario Williams makes this front seven an imposing bunch, while Stephen Gilmore gives the secondary an immediate talent boost. It’ll be hard for even great offenses to have regular success against this defensive unit, and the Jets offense is most certainly not great. Give the Bills multiple sacks and multiple turnovers this week.

Sit: Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have a rough task ahead of them in Week 1, taking on a Giants offense that has to be feeling a ton of disrespect after winning a Super Bowl and then being rewarded with 24-hour Tebow News Network coverage. They’ll take it all out at home on the Cowboys, who should struggle keeping up with all the weapons the Giants have to offer.

Start: A kicker. If you did the smart thing during an early draft and passed on drafting a kicker in favor of picking up a wild card at the RB position, don’t forget to cut someone on your team and grab a kicker before it’s too late. We’ve seen in the past that kicker points are hard to predict — turn this list upside down and you might have just as good a shot at finding a good one …

Sit: Phil Dawson. Except for Dawson. The Eagles gave up the fewest points to kickers last season, and the defense has improved immensely, both at the LB position and by finally treating Nnamdi Asomugha like Nnamdi Asomugha and not Charles Woodson. If Trent Richardson can’t play or is limited, this offense doesn’t have a prayer at moving the ball, which could limit Dawson to four or five points at best.