Start & SitDecember 19, 2012


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Week 16: Your Fake Football Championship - 11 comments

By R.J. White

So you made it to the championship. [Insert inspirational words.] Now let’s get out there and win this thing!


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R.J. White is the head editor at the Cafe and contributes to CBSSports.com's MLB Rumors blog. He has previously written for FanHouse, Razzball and FanDuel. Catch up with him in the forums under the name daullaz. Follow him on Twitter; don't follow him in real life.
 
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11 Responses to “Week 16: Your Fake Football Championship”

  1. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Would you consider sitting BJGE for Turner in a PPR? BJGE has been hot; Turner has been disappointing in the yardage totals but keeps finding the endzone. He’s scored in 5 straight and in every game but 4! 11/15 games.

    In my league, BJGE has only a 13 point lead in fantasy points on the season (171-158). Fairly even.

    So now, I look at the matchup and BJGE has, by far, the toughest matchup. PIT is 4th against the run, 93 YPG, 9 TDs, and 7th in FP allowed to RBs (7.9 pts/game). They shut out Chargers RBs in Week 15, gave up 1 rushing TD to DeMarco Murray in Week 14, and another 1 to Ray Rice in Week 13 (2 rushing TDs in last 3 weeks).

    Turner, on the other hand, faces DET who is 18th against the run, 119 YPG, 12 TDs, and 24th in FP allowed to RBs (14 pts/game). DET gave up 3 rushing TDs to Beanie last week (Week 15) and another 1 to DeJuan Harris in Week 14, and 1 to LeShoure in Week 13 (5 rushing TDs in last 3 weeks, not including an Aaron Rogers plunge).

    I think this matchup screams Turner. For me not to play him, I would have to believe that BJGE is (1) that much better and (2) so hot right now that PIT defense won’t limit him. I’m not sure I buy into either.

    What do you think?

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar daullaz says:

    I think Turner is more likely to bring up a dud this point, and that’s what puts me off him. In his last six games, three of his yardage totals were 14, 16 and 17. The other three weren’t exactly great: 46, 52, 83. You’re banking on that TD. He’s scored in five straight and as you said, Detroit isn’t exactly stout, but scores are always gambles.

    Conversely, BGE has topped 100 yards in four of his last five games (with 25 carries in three of the four and 19 in the other), rushing for 89 yards (on 12 carries) in the fifth game. He’s posting great YPC numbers as well over those five weeks, while Turner only had one good game in terms of YPC. Since I value yardage and workload more than the ability to reach the end zone, especially in a one-game matchup as opposed to an entire season of work, I see BGE as safer, even if he has a tough matchup. PIT is 28th against RBs (according to Yahoo), but Philly is 24th, Dallas is 17th, San Diego is 21st (his last three matchups).

    But it’s your team and you’ve given it a lot of though, so if you’ve invested in the matchup quality swinging the start to Turner, I would go ahead and do that. If it was my team, I’d probably be starting Green-Ellis.

    ReplyReply
  3. Town says:

    So I am in a two QB league, PPR and distance (extra for 40+ plays/touchdowns). At the moment I have Kaepernick, Stafford, Flacco, and Bradford because I can’t figure out who to start. Afraid to start CK and MS as usual, based on matchups and questionable performance. What would you have to say? I have Bradford and Flacco starting at the moment, but need to make a decision quick on Stafford because he plays early.

    ReplyReply
  4. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Thanks!!

    ReplyReply
  5. User avatar daullaz says:

    @Town: As you can see, I have all four QBs ranked right next to each other, so I’m probably no help at all. The consensus has Stafford and Kaepernick ahead, if that helps. Bradford and Flacco definitely have the best matchups, but again, matchups only take you so far. Bradford and Kaepernick have been the least likely to put up 40-yard plays lately — Bradford hasn’t had one such pass since Givens’ streak of 50-yard catches ended in Week 8. Kaepernick doesn’t have a 40-yard pass since Week 11. He does have two 50-yard runs over that time-frame, but I don’t have to tell you that 40-yard runs from QBs are wildly unpredictable and not to be counted upon. The bad thing about Stafford is that Atlanta has a good enough secondary to limit Megatron, and Detroit has no threats outside of him. In your shoes, I’d probably start Bradford and Flacco but not feel very good about the choice.

    ReplyReply
  6. petoria says:

    Trying to get some insight on whether to start steve smith or roddy white? Smith had some pretty good games lately. Also, if you had to choose two between David WIlson, Bryce Brown, Lesean Mccoy, Frank Gore, and Knowshon Moreno, who would you go with? Non ppr btw

    I’m leaning towards moreno and mccoy b/c gore might not do so hot against SEA D/ST

    ReplyReply
  7. User avatar joejlitz says:

    @daullaz – I really want to go with Turner, but when 94% of the guys on Fantasypros pick BJGE over Turner, I can’t do it. It would be like me saying that I’m smarter than everyone else.

    ReplyReply
  8. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Edit: 94% of the guys including you!

    ReplyReply
  9. User avatar daullaz says:

    Get your FF questions answered in our weekly chat:

    http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/chat.php

    ReplyReply
  10. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Thanks for a year’s worth of helpful advice!!!!!

    ReplyReply
  11. Muckbin says:

    10 Person standard League.
    My team
    QB: Aaron Rodgers
    RB:Reggie Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw
    WR: Calvin Johnson, Danny Amendola
    TE: Tony Gonzalez
    K: Dan Bailey
    Def: Seattle

    I don’t know who to start at my flex spot; on my bench for options I have: TY Hilton, Ben Tate, Ronnie Hillman, Jordy Nelson, Stevie Johnson.
    I Personally am not leaning towards Ronnie Hillman until I figure out how Broncos will use the Committee Backfield. Stevie Johnson I am also not thrilled about starting due to the issues Buffalo has at quarterback.
    I am leaning towards TY Hilton (vs raiders) over Ben Tate who should get a decent amount of carries against San Diego, and Jordy Nelson (vs a tough SF defense)

    Thoughts? :-)

    ReplyReply

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