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With many dynasty rookie drafts taking place at this time of year, it may be useful to examine the ADP (Average Draft Position) for the the top fifty rookies. The ADP is based on draft results from several rookie drafts that have already been completed in Fantasy Football Cafe leagues. The “Spread” refers to the highest and lowest each player has been drafted in the various leagues. For example, Andrew Luck is 5th in the rankings, his ADP is 4.71 and he has been drafted as high as the 2nd overall pick and as low as the 7th overall pick. For some players the spread is very large.
One thing that has to be taken into account is drafting philosophies. While some people draft according to who is the BPA (Best Player Available), others draft based on team needs, and most people probably use a combination of the two.
| Rank | Player | ADP | Spread |
| 1 | Trent Richardson – RB, CLE | 1.00 | 1/1 |
| 2 | Doug Martin – RB, TB | 2.71 | 2/4 |
| 3 | Robert Griffin III – QB, WAS | 3.57 | 2/5 |
| 4 | David Wilson – RB, NYG | 4.43 | 3/7 |
| 5 | Andrew Luck – QB, IND | 4.71 | 2/7 |
| 6 | Justin Blackmon – WR, JAX | 4.86 | 3/6 |
| 7 | Michael Floyd – WR, ARI | 6.71 | 6/7 |
| 8 | Kendall Wright – WR, TEN | 8.71 | 8/10 |
| 9 | Isaiah Pead – RB, STL | 10.28 | 8/15 |
| 10 | Coby Fleener – TE, IND | 11.43 | 8/13 |
| 11 | Alshon Jeffery – WR, CHI | 11.86 | 9/15 |
| 12 | Ronnie Hillman – RB, DEN | 13.14 | 9/17 |
| 13 | Brian Quick – WR, STL | 13.29 | 10/17 |
| 14 | Stephen Hill – WR, NYJ | 13.29 | 11/17 |
| 15 | Lamar Miller – RB, MIA | 13.86 | 11/16 |
| 16 | Rueben Randle – WR, NYG | 15.00 | 10/18 |
| 17 | Mohamed Sanu – WR, CIN | 16.86 | 14/24 |
| 18 | Ryan Tannehill – QB, MIA | 18.14 | 13/23 |
| 19 | LaMichael James – RB, SF | 19.00 | 17/22 |
| 20 | Robert Turbin – RB, SEA | 21.14 | 20/25 |
| 21 | A. J. Jenkins – WR, SF | 21.86 | 20/25 |
| 22 | Bernard Pierce – RB, BAL | 22.29 | 20/27 |
| 23 | Ryan Broyles – WR, DET | 24.43 | 21/29 |
| 24 | Marvin Jones – WR, CIN | 25.57 | 25/29 |
| 25 | Chris Givens – WR, STL | 25.71 | 19/30 |
| 26 | Greg Childs – WR, Min | 26.57 | 25/31 |
| 27 | Ladarius Green – TE, SD | 27.71 | 19/44 |
| 28 | Nick Toon – WR, NO | 32.29 | 26/41 |
| 29 | Adrien Robinson – TE, NYG | 32.29 | 27/50 |
| 30 | Vick Ballard – RB, IND | 32.27 | 28/36 |
| 31 | Brandon Weeden – QB, CLE | 33.29 | 24/38 |
| 32 | Chris Polk – RB, PHI | 33.57 | 24/42 |
| 33 | Russell Wilson – QB, SEA | 34.43 | 26/43 |
| 34 | DeVier Posey – WR, HOU | 34.86 | 18/46 |
| 35 | Chris Rainey – RB, PIT | 35.86 | 31/45 |
| 36 | Juron Criner – WR, OAK | 36.00 | 29/42 |
| 37 | Tommy Streeter – WR, BAL | 36.14 | 26/41 |
| 38 | Cyrus Gray – RB, KC | 40.29 | 33/46 |
| 39 | Dwayne Allen – TE, IND | 41.75 | 34/55 |
| 40 | Marvin McNutt – WR, PHI | 41.86 | 31/53 |
| 41 | Terrance Ganaway – RB, NYJ | 42.71 | 28/51 |
| 42 | Joe Adams – WR, CAR | 44.57 | 36/52 |
| 43 | Devon Wylie – WR, KC | 45.00 | 32/50 |
| 44 | Bryce Brown – RB, PHI | 46.14 | 39/57 |
| 45 | Jeff Fuller – WR, MIA | 47.57 | 34/57 |
| 46 | Danny Coale – WR, DAL | 49.14 | 40/54 |
| 47 | T.Y. Hilton – WR, IND | 49.14 | 37/61 |
| 48 | Lavon Brazil – WR, IND | 49.43 | 42/55 |
| 49 | Boom Herron – RB, CIN | 51.86 | 46/61 |
| 50 | Michael Smith – RB, TB | 52.00 | 30/61 |
Rob Humeston, aka stomper, has been a member of the Cafe since 2004. A few years ago he became addicted to taking over abandoned dynasty teams and rebuilding them.
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Thanks for taking the time to compile this. Out of curiosity, how many drafts does this represent?
The stats are based on 7 rookie drafts concluded here at the Cafe (1×10 team league, 5×12 team leagues and 1×14 team league).
Very well done Stomper, I appreciate this. I was actually doing this very same thing in my head to prepare for a rookie draft and this makes it so much easier. I think this would be very helpful for leagues that draft rookies in July/August. The interesting part is the drafts that take place to set the ADP and the ones that draft after the value has already been set.
Thanks LS2 – kinda interesting to see some of those spreads – take a guy like #26 Greg Childs who has a fairly tight spread of 25/31 and contrast that with #27 Ladarius Webb who has a huge spread of 19/44.
good stuff man!
I also think it’s interesting that RGIII and Luck both topped out as the 2nd overall pick but Luck lasted a big longer to pick 7 while RGIII doesn’t make it past 5.
The top 7 looks to be pretty consistent all over the place.
How many drafts was this taken from again? Interesting to see who the “typical” picks are to round out the 1st round.
Taken from 7 rookie drafts. One I found interesting is Michael Floyd who has always gone 6th or 7th, not much spread there – everyone seems to have him ranked pretty much the same.
Very good info thanks for doing this Rob
Has there been any update to this?