RankingsMay 20, 2013


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Dynasty Tier Breakdown: Quarterbacks - 3 comments

By Stever

With OTAs and mini-camps right around the corner, it is an ideal time to study dynasty tiers. This article series, Dynasty Tier Breakdown, will take a look at dynasty tiers for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Let’s start with quarterbacks.

Tier 1
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Drew Brees, NO
3. Cam Newton, CAR
4. Robert Griffin III, WAS
5. Andrew Luck, IND
6. Colin Kaepernick, SF

Aaron Rodgers, one of the most consistent options in fantasy football, will be entering his sixth season as a starter. In every season since 2008, Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top two-quarterback. Even though he lost Greg Jennings, I do not expect him to miss a beat due to the emergence of Randall Cobb. Similar to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees has had an extraordinary consistent career. He has not finished outside of the top three quarterbacks since 2005. Only 34 years old, expect another three to four years of elite stats from Drew Brees.

Cam Newton struggled during his second year in the National Football League, but he still finished fourth overall for quarterbacks. Sadly, the Panthers did not add another big-time threat at wide receiver, but Newton will still get plenty of stats on the ground. Rookie sensation Robert Griffin, III had a tough ending to his 2013 campaign; however, I expect him to get right back on track once he returns to the field. Another impressive rookie, Andrew Luck, will continue to grow as both on and off the field. Possibly one of the biggest surprises of last season was Colin Kaepernick. He could finish as a top quarterback as soon as this season.

Tier 2
7. Russell Wilson, SEA
8. Tom Brady, NE
9. Matt Ryan, ATL
10. Matthew Stafford, DET

The Seattle Seahawks opened up the playbook during the second half of last year and Russell Wilson delivered. With the addition of Percy Harvin this off-season, Wilson’s upside is tremendous. Ranking Tom Brady at eight feels a bit odd. There is reason for some concern though with Wes Welker gone, and he will turn 36 shortly after the start of the season. Matt Ryan has possibly the best wide receiver combination in the NFL, Roddy White and Julio Jones. Expect him to be a frequent top-ten finisher for many years to come. Matt Stafford has led the NFL the past two seasons in pass attempts. While I still expect him to get over 650 passing attempts this season, I don’t see much upside.

Tier 3
11. Tony Romo, DAL
12. Peyton Manning, DEN
13. Eli Manning, NYG

Possibly one of the most underrated fantasy quarterbacks, Tony Romo lacks upside that is needed to be in the second tier. Peyton Manning should continue to put up elite numbers, but he recently turned 37 years old. Part of the struggles Eli Manning encountered last season could be partly contributed to Hakeem Nicks being less then 100 percent healthy. Eli Manning can still put up top-10 seasons; however, he does not posses elite upside.

Tier 4
14. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
15. Ryan Tannehill, MIA
16. Andy Dalton, CIN
17. Michael Vick, PHI
18. Joe Flacco, BAL

Ben Roethlisberger lacks every-week upside, especially with the loss of Mike Wallace. The Miami Dolphins added plenty of support for the second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill by adding Wallace and Dustin Keller. Andy Dalton should continue to be a solid bye-week fill-in. With the addition of Chip Kelly as the Eagles head coach, Michael Vick has plenty of upside; however, he will continue to carry a huge injury risk. In a run-first Ravens offense, Joe Flacco will continue to put up QB2 numbers.

Tier 5
19. E.J. Manuel, BUF
20. Sam Bradford, STL
21. Josh Freeman, TB
22. Jay Cutler, CHI
23. Philip Rivers, SD
24. Jake Locker, TEN
25. Matt Schaub, HOU

The Bills took E.J. Manuel with the 16th overall pick this offseason. He should beat out Kevin Kolb and start in week one. Manuel showed promise at Florida State, but he was inconsistent. Sam Bradford could take a step forward this season with the Rams offseason additions of Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and Jake Long. Josh Freeman must improve if he wants to stay with the Buccaneers long-term. The Bears corrected some of their offensive line problems, which is great news for Jay Cutler. Philip Rivers had a tough year without Vincent Jackson, and I do not see him having a bounce-back season. Jake Locker struggled with accuracy. Hopefully, he can take a step forward, as he is surrounded by talent at wide receiver. This offseason, the Texans added DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver, but they are a run-first team, so Matt Schaub has limited potential.

 
Stever is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Stever in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of 11stever11
 
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3 Responses to “Dynasty Tier Breakdown: Quarterbacks”

  1. User avatar DraftDodger says:

    I doubt that Kaepernick is going to triple his production, which he’d have to do for Tier 1 status. You’ve dropped Tom Brady to Tier 2 for no reason other than his “age”, and promoted this guy probably 2 tiers higher than he deserves to be. Let him perform at least one year at an elite level before we give him a parade. Brady is an elite QB until proven otherwise. Almost anyone in your Tier 4 has the potential for a better season than Kaepernick, so I think you’d be generous to put him in Tier 3. I’ll remember to revisit this article after the season …

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar Kareighuis says:

    This is a dynasty ranking article. Its focus is not merely this season. Kaep’s high-end production combines with his youth to make ranking him high understandable. Brady not only has “age” but a ton of questions in the WR/TE group. The most glaring is replacing stalwart Welker. Injuries are also a big issue, and the fact the guys behind presumed starters are rooks. Many project the Patriots will lean more on the run game to compensate for the pass-catchers’ issues. Reduced production for Brady would be the natural outcome.

    If someone intends to “come back” to this article, the proper time is in 3 years.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Hear hear, Kareighuis!

    ReplyReply

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