OpinionApril 30, 2013

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2013 Fantasy Rookies: Three Up, Three Down - 4 comments

By murphysxm

As I sit on the couch post-NFL Draft, my mind starts to really get geared up for the upcoming fantasy drafts. Interestingly, I am already starting to see some players that I like more and less than the national pundits in the rookie draft class. So I figured it’s probably time to start going out on some limbs and talk about my early thoughts. Today’s article is going to highlight three players I am much higher on than most, and three players I am starting to realize I will not own because I don’t like them as much as others. I will now put a big asterisk next to this column; I reserve the right to change my mind as we learn more about camp competitions, injuries, etc.

Three Up

If you are in a Cafe league with me, you’ll have to reach to get these guys.

Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars

He went 135th, but from a skill/natural ability perspective there probably aren’t 10 players in this draft that can make you stare in amazement at sheer freakish ability. I like him as a flier for two reasons. First is situation: Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t getting any younger and Rashad Jennings is clearly not the back of the future. Robinson has an opportunity to get there. Second, I live in Indiana and watch a lot of Big Ten. Much like I said last year about Russell Wilson, this kid just has an “it” factor. He will need to start tying his shoelaces though.

Ryan Swope, WR, Cardinals

First of all, I will refrain from the obvious comparison to Wes Welker. I instead see him as this year’s T.Y. Hilton. He is shifty, gets into space well and will be a great check-down target for noodle-armed Carson Palmer. I see Swope as a matchup nightmare, and Bruce Arians seems to know how to utilize speedy slot guys, like Hilton.

Zac Stacy, RB, Rams

Stacy averaged 5.4 yards per carry in college. For Vanderbilt. In the SEC. I admittedly bump him up because I am not sold on Isaiah Pead or Daryl Richardson and see Stacy getting a very legit shot at two-down work from the start. I think Pead is the change-of-pace back. I think Stacy will be under-drafted because there are already two young backs on the roster, but not by me.

Three Down

I will not own these players in many leagues.

Marcus Lattimore, RB, 49ers

I hate to feel this way. He appears to be an incredible kid and I am rooting hard for him. However, legs aren’t supposed to bend the way his did during his severe injury. and there are three legit NFL RBs already on the 49ers’ roster. Drafting him means you are pretty much foregoing the 2013 season, and he will cost a first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts. I sincerely hope I am wrong and he goes all Adrian Peterson on me.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings

If Ryan Leaf were a WR, this would be him. He has all the talent in the world, but I just have a hunch he will not put the work in to excel in the NFL. I also think he will have a lot of pressure to instantly replace Percy Harvin’s production, and that probably isn’t fair. I would rather own his college teammate, Justin Hunter.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos

Off the top of my head: Laurence Maroney, Tyrone Wheatley, Beanie Wells, Anthony Thomas, Mike Hart and Ron Dayne. All were elite college running backs in the Big Ten, but all completely forgettable at the pro level. Not sure why exactly, but I don’t expect much from Ball. Great landing spot, but he is no better than Knowshon Moreno. However, he will be drafted as a building block-type player in dynasty leagues. To me, he is not that.

So there you have it: a glimpse into my post draft rookie draft mind. I am sure my lists are different than yours and that is what makes fantasy so much fun.

Just an average guy that enjoys talking fantasy. Follow me here in the forum under username murphysxm.
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4 Responses to “2013 Fantasy Rookies: Three Up, Three Down”

  1. User avatar daullaz says:

    “Off the top of my head: Laurence Maroney, Tyrone Wheatley, Beanie Wells, Anthony Thomas, Mike Hart and Ron Dayne.”

    But also Rashard Mendenhall (perfectly fine fantasy back for multiple years), Larry Johnson (elite fantasy back for a few years) and Eddie George (reliably consistent fantasy back). I think it’s silly to knock an individual based on a few guys that didn’t pan out who have zero relation to the player in question. I think you do as well, since you like Michigan’s Denard Robinson (not a college back, granted, but one who would be used in the Maroney/Wheatley list if he was drafted in the first few rounds and didn’t pan out).

    The Pac-10 had LenDale White, J.J. Arrington, Trung Candidate, Chris Henry, Napoleon Kaufman as high picks. The Big 12 had Tatum Bell and Brandon Jackson. The Big East had Brian Leonard and William Green. Even the SEC had Felix Jones, Kenny Irons, Robert Edwards, J.J. Johnson, Kevin Faulk, James Stewart. The year SEC back Emmitt Smith was drafted 17th, SEC back Rodney Hampton was drafted 24th. The fates of Smith and Hampton weren’t intertwined because they came out of the SEC.

  2. murphysxm says:

    Totally agree with your point, and I referenced that I didn’t have a concrete “why” I was low on Ball. My bringing the other backs into the conversation is when I think of backs in the Big Ten, I think of the busts first. He just doesn’t pass the eyeball test to me.

  3. The TOP NFL ROOKIES for 2013 in fantasy football (excluding defensive guys) will be:
    Tavon Austin, WR – STL.
    Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT.
    Cordarrelle Patterson, WR – MIN
    Montee Ball, RB – DEN
    Aaron Dobson, WR – NE.

    Keep in mind that rookies don’t impact the NFL that much, especially WR’s. I like Le’Veon Bell a lot because he has the easiest opportunity to start right away. Montee Ball is fighting Hillman and Moreno for touches. Dobson is a long shot, but IF the guy is able to stay with the first team – Brady will make him somebody. I think I could catch 65 balls with Brady as my QB, and I am not in what you would call peak shape.

  4. If you are looking for some other names that may not be drafted high enough in your league:
    Eifert, TE – CIN (showing good things early)
    Bernard, RB – CIN
    DeAndre Hopkins, WR – HOU
    G. Smith, QB – NYJ.

    Geno Smith could be a great late pickup in one of those roster spots you usually don’t care too much about. I know he is being hyped, but the kid has talent and could be the starter Week 1. Fantasy Football


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