Help on keeper strategy (single) for .5 ppr league

[rmsanger]

Here is my roster by position and the corresponding round pick I would have to give up for each player. Want to get your input on how I should proceed.

QB - Robert Griffin III - 4th round
QB - Andrew Luck - 6th round
WR - Reggie Wayne - 11th round
WR - Pierre Garcon - 15th round
WR - Mike Wallace - 5th round
WR - Dwayne Bowe - 8th round
WR - Roddy White - 2nd round
RB - Arian Foster - 1st round
RB - Knowshon Moreno - 15th round
RB - Darren McFadden - 3rd round
TE - Aaron Hernandez - 9th round

So here are a few thoughts on this:

1) Arian Foster is obviously the best player and could be a value if I get the 10th pick next year as he would be a top 3 pick anyway so value would be 1-3 pick in the 10 slot.
2) RGIII has been great but and should be a solid value for a 4th rounder but not sure if he's due for a sophmore slump. Not sure if Foster is the better value on giving up a 1st vs. RGIII in the 4th?
3) Luck in the 6th is solid but not sure if he's up there with RGIII in the 4th.
4) I can make a move to pickup MJD and drop Bowe now so could keep MJD for a 15th round (huge value). But not sure the risk of not having Bowe for playoffs is worth the upside from MJD? Does MJD have an age / injury risk going forward? Is MJD a significantly better value at giving up a 15th than the safety of Foster in the first or RGIII in the 4th?

Everyone else seems to be fodder at their respective values. Would really appreciate your input on how to move forward!

** Please leave your link WHIR **

[bandoogie]

How many keepers?

[rmsanger]

Single keeper league.

[bandoogie]

I'd lean towards Foster, but MJD in the 15th rd is a huge value. To me, it's worth the cost of Bowe. I wouldn't play Bowe ahead of any of the other Wr's you have except maybe Wallace. I'd consider dropping Wallace instead to be honest.

For me it's either Foster or MJD while dropping Wallace or Bowe.

[bandoogie]

I'd lean towards Foster, but MJD in the 15th rd is a huge value. To me, it's worth the cost of Bowe. I wouldn't play Bowe ahead of any of the other Wr's you have except maybe Wallace. I'd consider dropping Wallace instead to be honest.

For me it's either Foster or MJD while dropping Wallace or Bowe.

[rmsanger]

Well I did drop Bowe for MJD so that is done and no I did not drop Wallace (Thankfully).

Seems like a 3 horse race for my keeper options:

Foster 1st round
RGIII 4th round
MJD 8th round

Which 1 would you keep and pick that you would give up?

[rmsanger]

Christmas bumpage.... spreading merry and cheer throughout the halls of FFC!

I need to submit my keeper choice by end of week. Any help or input would be appreciated and I can only keep 1 of the following and give up the corresponding round pick:

Arian Foster - 1st round
RGIII - 4th round
MJD - 8th round
Reggie Wayne - 11th round
Pierre Garcon - 15th round
Mike Wallace - 5th round
Dwayne Bowe - 8th round
Roddy White - 2nd round

My first inclination is that Foster should be a must keep. But if I got the #1 overall pick I wouldn't really get "fair value". All of the other tops RBs are sure to be drafted. RGIII in the 4th is solid value but he may be due for a sophmore slump (ala Cam Newton). MJD could be a great value in the 8th but not sure on his injury, age, contract situation with the Jags.

Everyone else on the list seems to be ok value with maybe Garcon and Wayne being higher. But not sure they are "keeper" material.

I do know that everyone else is planning to keep either their # 1 RB or in some cases Megatron, Brady, and Rodgers. Any advice would be very appreciated and don't forget to leave your link ** WHIR ** !

[BravesGuy]

I'd go with Foster. RG3 is great, but he is just finishing up his 1st season. Foster has been on top a few years now.

[Indibuck]

If you know you have a draft slot of 1.03 or later, keep Foster.

If you have 1.02 or 1.01, keep MJD.

If you don't know where you will draft before selecting your keeper, Foster is the no-brainer.

[srlarson]

Foster, hands down.....