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Too many Running Backs, Help!

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Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby mpk10 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:01 pm

Hey, new to the boards so let me know if i'm doing any formatting things wrong. I was hoping for some help in my keeper league. It's an auction draft league with a "$200" budget and i get to keep 3 guys from year to year. Here's who i'm considering:

M. Lynch ($45)
T. Richardson ($37)
A. Morris ($6)
Demaryius Thomas ($30)

maybe D. Brees? ($55)
maybe J. Blackmon? ($7)

Keep in mind that the price of keeping a player goes up $5/year. So Morris and Blackmon have great values, and Lynch and Brees will need to be abandoned soon.

Thanks for any help!
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby Norseman36 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:32 pm

I would keep Lynch, Richardson, and Brees. I'm new to keeper leagues, as a disclaimer, but the vast majority of the advice I've read insists on keeping your top projected players in the draft, regardless of positional needs. You have #4, #11, and #15 according to early rankings by Matthew Berry. http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/8809337/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-ranks-2013
I really have no experience with the auction style leagues, so my advice does not account for prices of player. I have too many RBs as well, though!
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby duffoholic » Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:10 pm

Norseman36 wrote:I would keep Lynch, Richardson, and Brees. I'm new to keeper leagues, as a disclaimer, but the vast majority of the advice I've read insists on keeping your top projected players in the draft, regardless of positional needs. You have #4, #11, and #15 according to early rankings by Matthew Berry. http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/8809337/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-ranks-2013
I really have no experience with the auction style leagues, so my advice does not account for prices of player. I have too many RBs as well, though!


I disagree here. Auction leagues are different from drafts because you have a shot at EVERY SINGLE PLAYER. The proposed keepers would cost 137$ of the 200$ cap. With that in mind, you are spending a third of your cap on three positions. I feel like getting value out of the keepers as starters is the most important thing about auction style leagues. It certainly doesn't make sense to keep Brees for 55$ if you can buy him this season for 40$ right?

Clearly Morris is a steal and MUST keeper at 6$, a keeper for the foreseeable future at +5$/year. Beyond that, it really depends on the values in your league. If Brady, Rodgers and Brees all typically go for 60$, he's worth keeping for 55$. Where do top 10WRs go? If you can give a couple of these values for reference it would make this easier to gauge.
Without that info, I'd go with:
Morris 6$
Lynch 45$
Brees 55$ (it is hard to knock the consistency here...)

This leave you with 94$ for the rest of the roster... I hope this helps.
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby srlarson » Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:28 pm

Duff has part of this correct......the key to keepers in auction leagues is value below replacement.......

Brees for 55 no way you can keep him.....Qb's are deep and even if you rebuy him it's open at that point.

Lynch maybe.....Top Rb's should be in the 55-60 range....and maybe skewed up a little due to position scarcity.....so I would consider him for 45......if he would cost you 60 to buy..you saved $15. he's a top 5 back so i can see you spending the $'s there

Morris no Brainer @ $6....and makes Lynch even cheaper.....starting backfield for 51....less than AP or Foster will go for and you have two.....I would pick up a third, spend a little more to have three solid RB's then reach for flier...try and find the next morris.

No to Blackmon...at best he's a WR3.........regardless of cost.... and I would say no to D Thomas...like him just not $30 like, even though he finished in the top 10....don't see him as a top 10 WR.......WR is deep, roll the dice.

So I have you with 2 keepers and $51 spent....I would roll with that....
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby duffoholic » Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:40 pm

The only reason I say to keep Brees is that he sits at 30$ in my league with a 100$ cap so doubling that you are still below value. Plus, with the QB position in my league's scoring system, that top tier of QB's is worth an extra 3-5 points per game (average score of 75 for a team). Without knowing prices it is tough to say though. I don't think only keeping two players is the worst advice, that's for sure!
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby mycuccismells » Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:59 am

I probably keep the 3 RBs for $88 and then take my chances from there. You will have 3 of the top 10 RBs in the league which is always a good place to start, and 2 of them are young enough to be considered again next year. If Lynch is worth 45 then i think T-Rich is worth 37, people are speculating he could be a top 3-4 back if he stays healthy.

I think Brees at $55 is pretty expensive, at best its right around where he will go for in the auction most likely so the value isnt there. How much did someone like Cam go for in your auction last year?? Also can you trade guys in the offseason, and if so can you trade guys for auction dollars? If so maybe try and sell Blackmon to someone for a few bucks and give yourself a little more wiggle room.
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby mpk10 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:48 pm

Thank you all so much for your help. I'm new to this forum and I'm psyched that folks seem genuinely interested in helping one another.

I agree on keeping Morris. $6 is just too good to pass up. And Lynch is probably worth it since top tier RBs generally go for well over 50 even 60. The real issue is that third spot. Richardson? Thomas? Brees? or no one and just keep the auction dollars.

To answer a couple questions that were asked:

$55 IS high for Brees. I agree. But Cam ($5), RG3 ($15), Peyton($12) and maybe even Brady ($41) will be kept as keepers by their current owners, so the pool for QB's is a little thin. (Rogers was kept at $62 [i know!] last year, no way he's kept at $67)

Unfortunately, I can't do any offseason trading. For players or auction dollars.

So it's a 1/2 pt PPR league. And for reference, some top ten receiver values last year were Megatron (kept, $44), Marshall ($37), Bryant ($32), Green (kept, $12), A. Johnson ($51), Welker ($41), White (kept, $51), Jones (kept, $10).

Not sure if any of this will change any of your advice, but i appreciate the comments and wanted to provide the extra info some of you said you'd need to make a more informed rec.

Thanks again!

-mpk
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby duffoholic » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:29 pm

With this bit of perspective, I think I have to agree with whoever suggested the three running backs for keepers. Keeping all three of them for 88 leaves with with lots of $$$ to fill out your roster and you essentially are set at RB so you can take some 1$ pickups later in the auction looking for value for next year. Plus, if TRich evolves into a back that can stay healthy you could have a solid tandem for a couple years at least with him and Morris staying below 60$ total for a couple more years. You should be able to land a nice QB and you know Thomas will be back in the pool at WR so I think you're laughing!

Good luck man,
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby mycuccismells » Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:05 pm

Based on those values for WR i would say Thomas isnt a bad value at $30, but WR is just so deep that I would prefer the 3 RBS. While it may be true that you wont get an elite QB if you throw Brees back, i dont think thats a good reason to overpay for him. How much did a guy like Romo go for last year? He should go for a similar value this year (or maybe less since there are likely to be more QBs kept with the emerging rookie class) and he could be a solid option.

If you can get a tandem of something like Romo/Richardson for around $65 i would much prefer that to Brees and a $10 RB. That being said i have never done an auction league so I'm not sure about proper strategy or how to value players other than from reading posts on here. I would assume that once you get past the elite QBs you can get one of those middle tier guys for $20-$25 and then really go aggressively at some WRs with the money you save from Brees.
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Re: Too many Running Backs, Help!

Postby mpk10 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:43 pm

Appreciate the replies. It sounds like the three RBs is the way to go. hopefully i can bid big and grab a top tier WR.

For those of you who haven't played an auction league, i highly recommend it. It really makes the game a lot more fair. Good luck everyone!
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