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How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

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How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby taw856 » Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:20 pm

So, now that mock drafts are open en masse, it seems pretty clear the first round is a string of RBs only interrupted by Megatron and Aaron Rodgers.

1. If you're planning on taking Rodgers or Megatron in the first round, how high in the round are you willing to go before you feel like you have to take Peterson, Foster, Martin, Charles, Lynch, etc.?
2. If you're not planning on taking anything other than a RB with your first pick, how low do Rodgers/Megatron have to fall before you change your mind?

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BOLD PICKS FOR 2013
A. Rodgers outscores D. Brees in ESPN standard scoring by 40+.
D. McFadden plays 16 games (but ineffectively for someone whose only problem we always assumed was health).
M. Lynch=not a Top 10 RB.
V. Cruz=Top 7 WR.
G. Tate=Top 36 WR.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby kmoneybags » Sat Jun 15, 2013 12:08 am

So I have the 11th pick in my relatively big money, 12 team, non-ppr, re-draft. I've done about 20 mocks or so on ESPN thus far and Megatron has lasted until 10 or 11 in about half (which I doubt will happen when real drafts start to happen). I'd take him at 11 if all the other top ranked RB's are off the board (ending with Morris, Spiller, and McCoy). However, I'd still be a bit hesitant to draft him there since Green, Bryant, or Marshall will be there at 14 but I wonder how I could let him go if he's there.
As for Rodgers...it's weird for me not to draft him at 11 (or 14 if he's there) because I love having a top QB and draft one every year. This may be the year that I wait until round 5 or 6 though. There really are so many quality ones out there going at value spots (Luck, mainly so far in mocks). However, similar to Megatron...I'll find it pretty difficult to pass up Rodgers if he's there at 14 for me on draft day.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby Mizou » Sat Jun 15, 2013 10:10 pm

I personally think WR is too deep to take even Megatron in the 1st round. As kmoneybags said, BMarsh, AJ Green, and Dez are all waiting around the corner, and you could have a top RB AND a good WR instead of the best WR, and a 2nd tier RB.

In recent mocks, even with Megatron dropping down to the end of the first round, I always felt better about taking a RB instead.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby taw856 » Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:16 am

kmoneybags wrote:So I have the 11th pick in my relatively big money, 12 team, non-ppr, re-draft. I've done about 20 mocks or so on ESPN thus far and Megatron has lasted until 10 or 11 in about half (which I doubt will happen when real drafts start to happen). I'd take him at 11 if all the other top ranked RB's are off the board (ending with Morris, Spiller, and McCoy). However, I'd still be a bit hesitant to draft him there since Green, Bryant, or Marshall will be there at 14 but I wonder how I could let him go if he's there.
As for Rodgers...it's weird for me not to draft him at 11 (or 14 if he's there) because I love having a top QB and draft one every year. This may be the year that I wait until round 5 or 6 though. There really are so many quality ones out there going at value spots (Luck, mainly so far in mocks). However, similar to Megatron...I'll find it pretty difficult to pass up Rodgers if he's there at 14 for me on draft day.


Hmm... so potentially you'd leave the first 2 rounds with Megatron and Rodgers if they fell to 11 and 14, respectively, but you'd prefer someone reach for them earlier so you can go something like Trent Richardson-A.J. Green instead?
BOLD PICKS FOR 2013
A. Rodgers outscores D. Brees in ESPN standard scoring by 40+.
D. McFadden plays 16 games (but ineffectively for someone whose only problem we always assumed was health).
M. Lynch=not a Top 10 RB.
V. Cruz=Top 7 WR.
G. Tate=Top 36 WR.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby kmoneybags » Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:23 pm

taw856 wrote:
kmoneybags wrote:So I have the 11th pick in my relatively big money, 12 team, non-ppr, re-draft. I've done about 20 mocks or so on ESPN thus far and Megatron has lasted until 10 or 11 in about half (which I doubt will happen when real drafts start to happen). I'd take him at 11 if all the other top ranked RB's are off the board (ending with Morris, Spiller, and McCoy). However, I'd still be a bit hesitant to draft him there since Green, Bryant, or Marshall will be there at 14 but I wonder how I could let him go if he's there.
As for Rodgers...it's weird for me not to draft him at 11 (or 14 if he's there) because I love having a top QB and draft one every year. This may be the year that I wait until round 5 or 6 though. There really are so many quality ones out there going at value spots (Luck, mainly so far in mocks). However, similar to Megatron...I'll find it pretty difficult to pass up Rodgers if he's there at 14 for me on draft day.


Hmm... so potentially you'd leave the first 2 rounds with Megatron and Rodgers if they fell to 11 and 14, respectively, but you'd prefer someone reach for them earlier so you can go something like Trent Richardson-A.J. Green instead?


That's basically what I'm hoping for...but also not hoping for. I suppose I'd be fine with either situation. However, if both of them fall (I think Rodgers is much more likely to) then I almost have to go RB/RB in rounds 3 and 4. I'm fine with doing that but I also believe there will be good WR options in those rounds for me that I'd be forced to pass on as the RB options in rounds 5 and 6 will undoubtedly...suck. It'd be damn difficult to pass up sure fire numbers in rounds 1 and 2 just because RB is a thin position. In fact, if Megatron and Rodgers are both gone- I may go WR/WR (2 of Bryant, Green, Marshall).
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby 11stever11 » Sun Jun 16, 2013 5:07 pm

I would consider taking Megatron after the 8th spot, and I would not take Rodgers until the 2nd round. I think there is better value later in the draft at quarterback, although I don't think the QB position is quite as deep as some think. I think that Megatron is at another level at wide receiver, so once the top 8 RBs are off the board, I would consider taking him.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby taw856 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 3:32 pm

So not to belabor the point, but I just find it interesting that Matthew Berry is banging the don't draft Calvin Johnson drum at the very same time that ESPN's points projections have Calvin Johnson outscoring all but 2 RBs. In a 12-team league with a flex, that makes Calvin Johnson the #3 VBD projected player, behind only Peterson and Foster. Rodgers is #10 VBD on the same set of projections...
BOLD PICKS FOR 2013
A. Rodgers outscores D. Brees in ESPN standard scoring by 40+.
D. McFadden plays 16 games (but ineffectively for someone whose only problem we always assumed was health).
M. Lynch=not a Top 10 RB.
V. Cruz=Top 7 WR.
G. Tate=Top 36 WR.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby wtr23 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:03 pm

I like megatron in the 8-10 range (assuming its a 12 teamer). The last two spots I'd rather go with a top back then turn the corner with AJG, Marshall, etc. I wouldn't take Rodgers unless I'm at the tail end of the second, I wouldn't mind taking him if I'm the guy making the turn. Anything beyond the 2nd round (which I doubt would happen) I'd take Rodgers regardless of position in the draft.
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Re: How early/late do you take Rodgers, Megatron?

Postby lambo1203 » Fri Jul 19, 2013 10:25 pm

I think it all comes down to personal preference regarding whether you want to go with the 2 RBs in the first two rounds, or if you'd rather get the best players at other positions. I'm a big reader of ESPN content, and I took Matthew Berry's advice regarding mock drafting and assessing your team from different strategical perspectives. I absolutely HATE going RB/RB because I have just never had success with it, and have struggled to be satisfied with any of my other positions. However, in doing two 12-team mocks this year already, I've seen what a roster looks like if you take a big name like Megatron or Rodgers in the first or second round and pass up on the elite or very solid RBs, it gets ugly quick.

My thinking is that if you don't have to worry about RBBC or taking a risk on a rookie RB, that allows you to take risks on other positions and most likely you should be able to get a decent QB, or at worst, a serviceable one where you can play matchups on bye weeks and dump the QB if things start to turn south. And while WR is always so deep, there are certain sure things that are hard to pass up on.

So, to get back to the question, I think you have to read the situation and assess the league settings (where you're at in the draft, if anyone's making a run on players, etc.) but I tend to value the non-RB more so than most, even though I think it's unconventional and goes against all the logic I just explained. Obviously, I wouldn't take either Rodgers or Megatron before AP, Foster, Martin, Charles, Lynch. But when it gets to players like Spiller (who I love but don't really buy into as a 1st-round pick), McCoy (don't trust his injuries and still don't think Philly's offense will be good) and Rice (think I just devalue him because I'm a Steelers fan), I'd strongly consider taking Rodgers or Mega. It just seems to me like having the best at a deep position is still better than having above average at a very weak position
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