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Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want?

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Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want?

Postby bigdogg712 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 9:42 am

For this years draft (10 team, no ppr), I have decided to stack 3 running backs with my first three picks, no matter what. The lineups are as follows: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, K, DST. If I can get 3 star runners for my RB/Flex spots, I will be very happy.

If Im in the top 5, I really like Charles. I have him ranked tied with AP for my second running back, second to only Foster. I love that Andy Reid is his new coach, he has a better O-Line with Albert t LT and Fisher at RT, and he's got an actual NFL QB throwing him the ball and keeping defenses honest. I actually like smith as a sleeper QB this year. Anyways, If I can't have Charles, Id like either Lynch (just like him this year-- 4th ranked RB) or McCoy (5th ranked RB). McCoy is in a similar situation to Charles, in my opinion. Good line, good coach, and will catch passes from the backfield.

Lets pretend I am picking 5th overall. If Charles and Lynch are taken, is that too soon to take McCoy? I hate both Spiller and Martin this year. I don't like Spiller because he is a small back with injury concerns, his line got worse this off season, and Fred Jackson is still there to vulture carries. I don't like Martin because his success last year was greatly thrown off by two HUGE performances, oh, and I don't like the sophomore slump. I Like McCoy a bit more than Rice, Richardson, and Morris, but Id be happy with any of them.

So back to my question, If my Charles and Lynch are taken, can I take McCoy at 5? I think I would rather have the player I want than a player who's ADP is around 5. Then, for my second round pick, will it be too soon to take a guy like Chris Johnson? I like him a ton this year, especially after I saw him explode for that 60+yd TD run in the preseason... a new OLine and a change of pace back will bring him back to CJ2K. By taking CJ there, I will likely be passing up on guys like Forte, Jackson, Ridley, and QBs like Brees or Rodgers (not that I want a QB this early anyways).

By round 3, (hopefully) I will have Charles/Lynch/McCoy, CJ2K, and one more running back selection to fill my flex. Would this be too soon to take MJD? I like him to bounce back this year. I would be passing up on guys like Gore, possibly Ridley, and a top flight WR.

So basically, is it okay/worth it to pick a guy you like before their respective ADP? WOuld this be a good draft strategy?


EDIT--EDIT--EDIT--EDIT--EDIT--8/19/13--EDIT--EDIT--EDIT--EDIT--EDIT

I have found out I will be going 3rd overall, so I have been doing mocks accordingly. I love taking Charles there. In my personal ADP chart, made up by mocks drafts I have been apart of (not including the most recent ones where he has been going 3rd), Charles is going 4.25, tied with Martin for the 3rd player off the board. Foster and Peterson are tied at 1.75 for being the first and second players off the board.

What about the rest of the draft tho? Can i take 2 of the following RBs in the second/third round? Gore, MJD, CJ2K, Ridley, Forte? How would you rank them? I would probably go Forte, CJ, MJD, Ridley (due to Vereens existence, Ridley won't be on the field nearly as much), and lastly Gore.
Last edited by bigdogg712 on Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby taw856 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 11:15 am

It's not bad to target guys you want, but I'd be wary of reaching EVERY round, because every time you're reaching, you're betting you're smarter than the consensus. In other words, pick your spots carefully.

I don't like McCoy at 5. I'm more on board with CJ2K in the second round, though not before Forte who Trestman is likely to use like Charlie Garner back in the day. I'd also take Brees or Rodgers over CJ2K second round, but then I'm against the consensus generally with regard to the need to take RBs early (I think as long as you get a reasonable RB1, you can find RB2 by drafting enough depth in the later rounds and not pass on the top six WRs, top two QBs and/or Jimmy Graham as they fall in the first 25 picks).

But bottom line, it's you managing your team not everyone else in the aggregate, so if you're that sold on McCoy and CJ2K, knowing you won't get them a round later, pull the trigger or make damn sure you're in a league where people actively trade enough to make it realistic to deal for them.
BOLD PICKS FOR 2013
A. Rodgers outscores D. Brees in ESPN standard scoring by 40+.
D. McFadden plays 16 games (but ineffectively for someone whose only problem we always assumed was health).
M. Lynch=not a Top 10 RB.
V. Cruz=Top 7 WR.
G. Tate=Top 36 WR.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby chinch sacs » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:10 pm

taw856 wrote:It's not bad to target guys you want, but I'd be wary of reaching EVERY round, because every time you're reaching, you're betting you're smarter than the consensus. In other words, pick your spots carefully.


I agree, allow for yourself to manipulate the ADP. Grabbing a guy that is a few spots lower? Sure! Grabbing a guy 15 picks early might not be a good idea every round
Fantasy sports are dominated by the 50-50-90 rule.
any time you have a 50/50 choice on something,
90% of the time you'll get it wrong.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby bigdogg712 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:17 pm

chinch sacs wrote:
taw856 wrote:It's not bad to target guys you want, but I'd be wary of reaching EVERY round, because every time you're reaching, you're betting you're smarter than the consensus. In other words, pick your spots carefully.


I agree, allow for yourself to manipulate the ADP. Grabbing a guy that is a few spots lower? Sure! Grabbing a guy 15 picks early might not be a good idea every round


Okay so what do you think of those 3 running backs? I think they all have top 12 potential.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby bigdogg712 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:20 pm

taw856 wrote:It's not bad to target guys you want, but I'd be wary of reaching EVERY round, because every time you're reaching, you're betting you're smarter than the consensus. In other words, pick your spots carefully.

I don't like McCoy at 5. I'm more on board with CJ2K in the second round, though not before Forte who Trestman is likely to use like Charlie Garner back in the day. I'd also take Brees or Rodgers over CJ2K second round, but then I'm against the consensus generally with regard to the need to take RBs early (I think as long as you get a reasonable RB1, you can find RB2 by drafting enough depth in the later rounds and not pass on the top six WRs, top two QBs and/or Jimmy Graham as they fall in the first 25 picks).

But bottom line, it's you managing your team not everyone else in the aggregate, so if you're that sold on McCoy and CJ2K, knowing you won't get them a round later, pull the trigger or make damn sure you're in a league where people actively trade enough to make it realistic to deal for them.



Okay, well what would you think of Charles, CJ2K, and MJD for my three guys? Or even Charles, Forte, and CJ2k (if CJ falls that far)? Would you like that trio? I think certainly the first trio all has top 10/12 potential, and Forte has top 15 if he can stay on the field all year.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby taw856 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:36 pm

I'm not a RB-RB-RB person -- I'd rather draft a more balanced team. But if you're going RB-RB-RB, either of those Charles+CJ2K trios are pretty solid.
BOLD PICKS FOR 2013
A. Rodgers outscores D. Brees in ESPN standard scoring by 40+.
D. McFadden plays 16 games (but ineffectively for someone whose only problem we always assumed was health).
M. Lynch=not a Top 10 RB.
V. Cruz=Top 7 WR.
G. Tate=Top 36 WR.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby trumpettar » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:44 pm

There are certain guys I would consider taking a round ahead of ADP, but if you do it too often or too close together you can put your team at a disadvantage while letting higher ADP guys fall to competition.

help with mine?
http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=535614
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby bigdogg712 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:50 pm

trumpettar wrote:There are certain guys I would consider taking a round ahead of ADP, but if you do it too often or too close together you can put your team at a disadvantage while letting higher ADP guys fall to competition.

help with mine?
http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=535614


Okay, well what do you think of my draft strategy?
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby shmity72 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:49 pm

in a ten team ...if you draft real early you may want an elite qb or wr round 2..just saying. I probably wouldn't go any other way then rb rb..but you should keep your options open. if brees is there at 18...why not? ;-D
QB: Russell Wilson, sam bradford
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson, Demarco Murray, jacquizz Rodgers, mcgahee
WR: Torrey Smith, Chris Givens, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin,
TE: Vernon Davis
DST: Patriots
K:Dan Bailey cowboys

championship here I come.
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Re: Is it bad to draft players early so you get who you want

Postby bigdogg712 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 6:02 pm

shmity72 wrote:in a ten team ...if you draft real early you may want an elite qb or wr round 2..just saying. I probably wouldn't go any other way then rb rb..but you should keep your options open. if brees is there at 18...why not? ;-D

I agree I should keep my options open, but I really like players like Stafford and Luck this season. Maybe even Vick, Palmer, and Alex Smith will be productive.

Anyways, Ive always hated my mocks where I don't have 3 strong RBs. Ive even gotten 4 or 5 before drafting another position. In my last mock, I had a strong trio of Charles, Forte, and MJD, followed up by Sproles, then Colston for my first WR. That way I've got a lot of trade leverage.

Do you like my draft strategy? What would you improve on?
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