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Which DEF: MIA or STL? Or TB?!? WHIR

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Which DEF: MIA or STL? Or TB?!? WHIR

Postby curtk » Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:29 pm

My team and league info are in my sig.

Playing defense roulette again this year. I used STL in week 5 and added MIA already for a possible week 6 start. The following are currently available on the WW:
DET @ PHI
TB vs KC
KC @ TB
IND @ NYJ
DAL @ BAL

The Defense Analyzer (here: viewtopic.php?t=525021), which is a fantastic resource, lists TB at #2 this week, and STL at #7. Curiously, MIA is not ranked there.

TB has a seemingly great matchup against KC. KC has coughed up the ball 10 times, has nine picks, and 13 sacks, all among the tops (or bottoms!) in each category. However, that was with Cassel at the helm, and it's possible that Quinn starts this coming week. The bottom line is that we don't know how that will change this matchup, so I find it difficult to consider TB.

STL is a good matchup choice, but are they the better choice over MIA, whom they play this week? Defense stat comparisons of stats that are most relevant to choosing fantasy defenses:
Code: Select all
                      STL      MIA     TB
Fumbles Recovered      0        0       2
INTs                   8        7       6
Sacks                 15       15       8
Points against      18.8     20.6    22.8


Obviously, STL and MIA compare similarly, so where are the differences? STL has played DET, WAS, CHI, SEA, and ARI. MIA has played HOU, OAK, NYJ, ARI, and CIN. (Bold/red are double digit defense scores.) In the one common opponent, ARI, MIA scored 12 and STL scored 18 the following week. This seems to give the edge to STL. TB has played CAR, NYG, DAL and WAS.

So how do their opposing offenses compare? Does one defense have a big advantage over the other because of their respective offensive ineptitude? Offense stat comparisons of stats that are most relevant to choosing fantasy defenses:
Code: Select all
               STL      MIA     KC (TB opponent)
Fumbles Lost    2        6      10
INTs            5        6       9
Sacks          15       10      13
Points for   19.2     20.6    18.8

MIA fumbles more, but STL takes more sacks and scores fewer points. Slight edge to the MIA defense. KC is among the best in the league to face, but that could change drastically.

So what do you think? STL or MIA...or take a chance with TB? Will Quinn be as good for opposing defenses as Cassel has been?

Please rank the three (or insert another choice), with your thoughts...

Will help in return...thanks!
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Re: Which DEF: MIA or STL? Or TB?!? WHIR

Postby lsutton » Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:44 pm

id rate them TB, MIA and STL in that order. amendola out and a stout run defense for MIA makes me think itll be a bad day for STL. but i like TB most because even though it is a new QB for KC that new QB is quinn, who really doesnt scare anyone and is a downgrade from cassel. average QB in his first start against a defense who forces a lot of turnovers
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Re: Which DEF: MIA or STL? Or TB?!? WHIR

Postby archie814 » Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:29 pm

1. TB
2. MIA
3. STL

If Brady Quinn is starting for KC, then I'm taking TB all day. If not, I may bump MIA above them.

viewtopic.php?t=525064
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Re: Which DEF: MIA or STL? Or TB?!? WHIR

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:27 pm

I probably should have listed MIA as at least one of my 'risky bets' in retrospect. They were 11th on my sacks/turnover metric and have had two good games. I didn't mostly because STL has really been cold for two weeks against supposedly good defenses in SEA and ARI. I don't think of MIA as better than those two and that's why I have them ranked lower. Btw, MIA did not make Bleacher's top 10 defenses this week either but neither did TB. KFFL listed STL higher than MIA and TB.

I feel pretty good about TB as a pick but it's fair to say it's not a lock. I'm encouraged by prior seasons where there was almost always some poor team (STL, DET, KC, TEN) that gave out great games week after week even to the most desperate of defenses. KC has given out 10+ points to BUF, SD and BAL and 9 points (in my nfl.com league) to ATL and NO and in my league, BUF and NO are near the bottom of the rack and SD is a midling defense. KC is technically the highest on sacks and TOs surrendered matchup wise.

Anyway, interesting analysis you did too. I'd stick with TB but I think MIA or STL are solid bets and it'll be hard to do much more than guess after what you've done already.

Help with mine? viewtopic.php?t=525036
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Re: Which DEF: MIA or STL? Or TB?!? WHIR

Postby VeganPhilosopher » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:47 pm

Thanks for your help with mine.

This is a tough call. Predicting defenses week to week is one of the more difficult things in fantasy football in my opinion.

I think both Miami and StL defenses have their stats inflated by playing Arizona, who easily has the worst offensive line in the league. (I think 8 of Miami's 15 sacks came against 'zona, and 7 of StL's 15 sacks came from 'zona). Unfortunately neither team gets to play Arizona every week, and they have been pretty pedestrian outside those games IMO.

I think I would actually go with TB here, based on the matchup. KC is just not very good to begin with, and now their QB is banged up, so I would advise playing the matchup on this one. Its not so much that I think TB has a good defense, its simply that I think KC is that bad. I think KC will give up sacks and turnovers, so I would play TB this week.

I don't say that with much confidence of course, since I think picking defenses is a bit of a gamble anyway.

Good luck!
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RB: A Foster, F Gore, T Richardson, K Hunter, M Hardesty, A Green
WR: V Cruz, M Austin, P Garcon, S Moss, B Hartline
TE: J Witten
K: Matt Bryant
D: ATL.
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