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Michael Pittman vs. Jamal Lewis

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You Can't Run Inside the Red Zone Unless You Get There

Postby DraftDodger » Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:03 pm

Too bad for Jamal that he only gets to suit up for one team each week ... and it has Kyle Boller for a QB

:-t

I see your point, but you're going down a road you really don't want to take. For example, do you want to go back and see how many long first down passes were made by those teams who later scored passing touchdowns? How many 3rd and 13 runs do you think Lewis would have converted to get his team NEAR the goal line? Yes, some teams pass in the red zone and Baltimore will mostly run, BUT YOU HAVE TO REACH THE RED ZONE BEFORE IT COUNTS.

Boller can't help Lewis get near enough to the end zone often enough for him to get all these rushing TDs that Baltimore's opponents have been giving away as passing TDs. All it means is that Lewis will get his one (and sometimes two) rushing TDs that his opponents normally give up, but how often is the Ravens offense going to put him in that position. Basically, Lewis relies on the defense and special teams to position the team for a score, and no matter how good the DST is, they can't make Lewis a star every week without help from the passing game.

Nice looking numbers and an interesting argument ... but it presumes falsely that Baltimore will make as many appearances in the red zone as a team that has a good passing game. That's not going to happen.
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Postby euclid530 » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:08 pm

i understand the qb argument for baltimore but is TB's situation much better at qb. They don't exactly have a payton manning. As a owner of both lewis and pittman i trust lewis a lot more than i trust pittman.
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Postby deluxe_247 » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:18 pm

ok, you convinced me...im trading lewis for pittman...ummmm ....no i dont think so! jamal has had the same situation with boller for some time now, its not stopped him from producing...and dont forget heap "should be" back soon...which we know will dramatically help the passing game. i agree, having griese rather than boller is a big plus to the running game, as the browns showed last night by stacking the box with 10 guys repeatedly because they know boller sucks...but as far as overall talent and consistentcy(i had pittman on my bench the last 2 years), id take lewis over pittman without batting an eye, regardless of their schedules. i liked the point you are making here though, maybe im just biased ;-D
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Re: You Can't Run Inside the Red Zone Unless You Get There

Postby Flux » Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:22 pm

DraftDodger wrote:Too bad for Jamal that he only gets to suit up for one team each week ... and it has Kyle Boller for a QB

:-t

I see your point, but you're going down a road you really don't want to take. For example, do you want to go back and see how many long first down passes were made by those teams who later scored passing touchdowns? How many 3rd and 13 runs do you think Lewis would have converted to get his team NEAR the goal line? Yes, some teams pass in the red zone and Baltimore will mostly run, BUT YOU HAVE TO REACH THE RED ZONE BEFORE IT COUNTS.

Boller can't help Lewis get near enough to the end zone often enough for him to get all these rushing TDs that Baltimore's opponents have been giving away as passing TDs. All it means is that Lewis will get his one (and sometimes two) rushing TDs that his opponents normally give up, but how often is the Ravens offense going to put him in that position. Basically, Lewis relies on the defense and special teams to position the team for a score, and no matter how good the DST is, they can't make Lewis a star every week without help from the passing game.

Nice looking numbers and an interesting argument ... but it presumes falsely that Baltimore will make as many appearances in the red zone as a team that has a good passing game. That's not going to happen.


The whole thing is, BAL is like no other team. They werent last year either, yet Jamal racked up 2000 yards. I dont think he can repeat that average, but saying teams only get 1 or 2 rushing TDs a game against these D's basically means thats what Jamal will get. Is that bad? Heck no! you cant ask more than that from a starting RB. BAL has consistently relied on their D to get them good field position and that benefits Jamal, nothing new has happened this year.

Sure BAL wont get 10 red zone appearances a game, but they may get 4 or 5, and in those opportunities, its going to be all Jamal, and that means 1 or 2 TDs plus 2 or 3 FGs. Thats what BAL is all about.

My whole thing is you cannot compare BAL by a team by team basis. They are like no other team, and as shown, when BAL has played some of these 'tough' D's, he has already produced TDs, and that to me, makes all these other stats irrelevant.
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Postby jwbseven » Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:48 pm

pittman in yardage league and Lewis in TD league.

TBays offensive as a whole is less one dimensional than Baltimore which gives the advantage to Pittman
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Nov 09, 2004 2:12 am

Flux wrote:
Eaglesfan wrote:I would rather have J Lewis! Pittman is a guy that I would maybe try and move. Remember he did do this against KC. The good things about Pittman is that he does catch better out of the backfield then Lewis(depending on how you league scores). I think both of the schedules are about the same IMO with the slight edge to Lewis. Like I stated earlier I would try and move him and see what you can get for him.


KC's run D is being vastly underrated. Yes they gave up that huge game to Q. Griffin, but look at some of these games before TB.

IND - Edge had 34 rushing yds
ATL - Dunn 49 rushing yds
JAX - Taylor 66 rushing yds
BAL - Lewis 73 rushing yds
HOU - Wells 34 rushing yds
CAR - Foster 174 rushing yds
DEN - Griffin 156 rushing yds

So you take out those 1st 2 games and that D looks VERY solid, granted some of those games their opponent had to pass in order to catchup. If it werent for Pittmans 70+ yard run, they would have held him to a very below average day yardwise


Don't you think that when Michael Pittman runs for 150 and 3 TDs that KC's D may be a little suspect? When you see that kind of statline, is the first though that comes to mind "damn, Pittman is a stud" or "damn, how did Pittman put up stud numbers this week", I choose the latter...

Chalk up another game to the that KC "career day" defense. Quentin Griffin, Deshaun Foster, and Michael Pittman will be sending Christmas cards to the Chief's on their decision to make no free agent acquisitions in the offseason.

There is no evidence in my mind that KC has become even a somewhat decent rush defense. Situations have determined all those great statlines, when in actuality KC hasn't even had a single legit good game.

Edge- no need to run when you can pass at will, 472 passing yards for Manning, mulligan
Dunn- hard to run when you're down 40, mulligan
Fred Taylor- deceptive stateline, 150+ combined yards and a TD
Bal- J.Lewis- deceptive statline, Jamal ran at will in the 2nd half
Hou- DDavis/Wells- Davis gets the injury bug and his backup gets his first playing time of the season, mulligan


So on my count that works out to:

Career Games for RBs: 3
Mulligans: 3
Deceptively good statlines: 2
Legit good games: ZERO

---------

So to get back on topic: Jamal Lewis vs. Pittman...... what are you crazy?!@#? Trade Pittman now he just had his career day. I doubt he scores 3 TDs for the rest of the season. Don't make the mistake of judging ease of schedule before you look at the talent of the players involved. Jamal Lewis is light years better than Pittman.
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Pittman vs. Lewis Heavyweight Fantasy Championship Match

Postby DraftDodger » Tue Nov 09, 2004 12:22 pm

>>>
Jamal Lewis is light years better than Pittman.
<<<

That doesn't mean he's going to put up superior fantasy numbers. Every stud has up and down years (while still remaining a damned good fantasy player) and I'm just suggesting that people realize this is a down year and that some less talented RBs (like Pittman) in better situations will put up superior fantasy numbers.

You can be sure I'll be tracking the Lewis-Pittman fantasy fight for the rest of the season. At worst, with the schedules and Pittman's ability, their numbers might be about equal. Since Lewis is the known stud, he has a higher trade value (which was what started this whole thing--Warpig has McAllister, Pittman, and Lewis and was contemplating trading Pittman. I suggested unloaded Lewis instead because A) he has more perceived value and B) I honestly believe Pittman will put up superior fantasy numbers.

Sure, Lewis can succeed in a lot of programs where Pittman might not, but Pittman is perfect for the Bucs and he will continue to be a workhorse back for them, fulfilling much the same role as Lewis but against easier run defenses and fewer line stackings.

In a keeper league I'd hang onto Lewis for sure, because I think once the prison time is behind him he will return with a vengeance, anxious to get back in the good graces of the fans.

If it's going to be DraftDoger and Pittman vs The Fantasy Football World, so be it, but I'm sticking with my prediction: Pittman over Lewis for the remainder of this season.
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Re: Pittman vs. Lewis Heavyweight Fantasy Championship Match

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Nov 09, 2004 12:48 pm

DraftDodger wrote:If it's going to be DraftDoger and Pittman vs The Fantasy Football World, so be it, but I'm sticking with my prediction: Pittman over Lewis for the remainder of this season.


Bold prediction man, I respect that. But, I think you're way off base selecting Pittman over Jamal. Obviously, Jamal brings a lot more in perceived trade value to the table, but is it really smart to deal Jamal for an upgrade at another position and then to rely on Pittman as an every week starter? IMO, that's a resounding NO.

Pittman has been in the league several years and he has never, EVER, EVER, come even close to resembling a stud fantasy RB except in point per reception leagues. Jamal Lewis is at worst a strong #2 RB based on past performance, but as recently as last year this guy was close to breaking records and is rightfully regarded as a stud.

I know evaluating players based on past performance is a trap many people fall into, but it does have merit as a basic strategy. Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin were underrated coming into the draft this year because of their poor 2003 performances, yet they had BOTH been workhorse, top 10 RBs in the past. Pittman has never been at their talent level and his stats show that.

DraftDodger wrote:Sure, Lewis can succeed in a lot of programs where Pittman might not, but Pittman is perfect for the Bucs and he will continue to be a workhorse back for them, fulfilling much the same role as Lewis but against easier run defenses and fewer line stackings.


Except that Pittman has never been a workhorse back for the Bucs as long as he's been there. I don't think that Pittman has ever eclipsed even 200 carries in a season and his main value in the past has been due to his pass catching ability.

Right now, his value is at a high because Mike Alstott is out and the Buc's have nothing left to rely on in their RB stable. Just look at Mewelde Moore for what kind of situation Pittman is in. He has a small window of time to play over his head before his value takes a nose dive right around fantasy playoff time. Just because Alstott has been out for a few weeks does not magically turn Pittman into a workhorse RB, especially not when he plays for Jon Gruden. Don't forget that Mike Alstott is due to return in less than a month.

------

Just looking at the statline from last game screams abberation and career game to me.


15 carries for 128 yards and 3 TDs.

1) YPC Average is around 9.

2) Buc's offense has scored less than 10 TDs all year, Pittman single handedly increased his team's midseason TD totals by at least a third in one game.

3) How many times has Pittman scored multiple TDs in a game? How about this: Pittman has never scored more than 6 or 7 TDs in an entire season.

4) Pittman has been in the NFL for more thann 6 years.


In other words: SELL HIGH
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Postby MadScott » Tue Nov 09, 2004 6:06 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Flux wrote:
Eaglesfan wrote:I would rather have J Lewis! Pittman is a guy that I would maybe try and move. Remember he did do this against KC. The good things about Pittman is that he does catch better out of the backfield then Lewis(depending on how you league scores). I think both of the schedules are about the same IMO with the slight edge to Lewis. Like I stated earlier I would try and move him and see what you can get for him.


KC's run D is being vastly underrated. Yes they gave up that huge game to Q. Griffin, but look at some of these games before TB.

IND - Edge had 34 rushing yds
ATL - Dunn 49 rushing yds
JAX - Taylor 66 rushing yds
BAL - Lewis 73 rushing yds
HOU - Wells 34 rushing yds
CAR - Foster 174 rushing yds
DEN - Griffin 156 rushing yds

So you take out those 1st 2 games and that D looks VERY solid, granted some of those games their opponent had to pass in order to catchup. If it werent for Pittmans 70+ yard run, they would have held him to a very below average day yardwise


Don't you think that when Michael Pittman runs for 150 and 3 TDs that KC's D may be a little suspect? When you see that kind of statline, is the first though that comes to mind "damn, Pittman is a stud" or "damn, how did Pittman put up stud numbers this week", I choose the latter...

Chalk up another game to the that KC "career day" defense. Quentin Griffin, Deshaun Foster, and Michael Pittman will be sending Christmas cards to the Chief's on their decision to make no free agent acquisitions in the offseason.

There is no evidence in my mind that KC has become even a somewhat decent rush defense. Situations have determined all those great statlines, when in actuality KC hasn't even had a single legit good game.

Edge- no need to run when you can pass at will, 472 passing yards for Manning, mulligan
Dunn- hard to run when you're down 40, mulligan
Fred Taylor- deceptive stateline, 150+ combined yards and a TD
Bal- J.Lewis- deceptive statline, Jamal ran at will in the 2nd half
Hou- DDavis/Wells- Davis gets the injury bug and his backup gets his first playing time of the season, mulligan


So on my count that works out to:

Career Games for RBs: 3
Mulligans: 3
Deceptively good statlines: 2
Legit good games: ZERO

---------

So to get back on topic: Jamal Lewis vs. Pittman...... what are you crazy?!@#? Trade Pittman now he just had his career day. I doubt he scores 3 TDs for the rest of the season. Don't make the mistake of judging ease of schedule before you look at the talent of the players involved. Jamal Lewis is light years better than Pittman.
You brought up the point that I wanted to Kensat. I liken the success of the KC run defense to that of Minnesota's in that once a team gets a ton of points dumped on them, they simply are going to have to stop running the ball. No attempts=no yards.

IMO, Jamal is still going to be more valuable the rest of the way simply because of the % of the touches that he gets in the offense. Griese's ability to run that offense has certainly helped Pittman's cause but I just don't think he'll get enough touches to keep up with Jamal. I like Pittman this year to Westbrook from last year at this time, solid from here on out.
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