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2005 Change of Address Ponderings

Postby Warpigs » Mon Nov 15, 2004 1:32 am

Some may think it's a little early to start thinking about the criss-crossing mess that this NFL offseason will bring. However, many of us are in keeper leagues, and to fully judge what kind of value a player will have in the near future will depend on where they wind up for the long haul. In fact, some fantasy owners may want to consider dealing a player now while in a good situation before they are traded or move to a team with less-than-stellar potential. On the flip side, some players could be considered buy-low in that they could be moving into the perfect situation for success.

Some players to consider and where I think they may wind up. What do you all think?

Edgerrin James. We all know that Indy is going to have a very hard offseason. Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James are just two big-name players who will be potential free agents and fighting for Indianapolis money. While the emergence of Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely may seem to signal that Marvin Harrison is expendable, I personally think that the Colts will stick with him for personal reasons. He and Peyton Manning have been re-writing record books, and considering that this is Manning's team, I think the Colts will try to keep the WR chemistry they currently have the same. I think that Edge will be the odd man out, and will be moving to a new address. Two teams jump out as potential suitors for Edge -- Dallas and Miami. In the end, I don't feel that Edge is a Parcells-type running back. Parcells likes building potential running backs -- not bringing established ones in. My gut says that Edge will be moving to Miami. Being out of Peyton Manning's (and the Colts passing offense's) shadow, Edge could excel. The Dolphins have the start of something good going on with Chris Chambers and David Boston in town. The defense is pretty solid. If the Dolphins work on shoring up a shoddy offensive line, Edge could find some success as a Dolphin.

Travis Henry. It's obvious that Henry will be leaving Buffalo in the offseason. McGahee's emergence means that Travis' time is up, and a change of pace could be the breath of fresh air his career needs. A number of teams need an RB improvement, but I'm going to bank on rumors and talks that Buffalo had with Indy before the 2004 season began. Talk was (again, heading in to the 2004 season) that Indy understood that it would be realistically losing Edge at the end of the season. The hopes were that Edge had a big year and could bring good value, while Travis Henry could be gotten at a reasonable price. Buffalo was asking for a solid WR to augment Moulds and Evans and ultimately be a replacement for Moulds (since Eric is getting a little aged now). For that to work, Indy's WRs had to have a huge season for the Colts to feel comfortable enough to let one of them go. Looking at how things played out, expect Brandon Stokley or Reggie Wayne to be dealt in the offseason for Travis Henry -- with the Colts targeting a promising young rookie WR in the 2005 draft. If Henry does land in Indy, it could really help his career. It seemed as if much of his struggles had to do with opposing defenses not respecting the Buffalo passing game (and rightfully so with Bledsoe bumbling around in the backfield). That won't be the case in Indy with Manning at the helm, which will open things up for Henry.

Ricky Williams. Ricky's retirement this year left too many open sores within the Dolphin organization. If Williams can swing a reinstatement by the start of the 2005 season (which is looking more and more realistic), expect Williams to be dealt to a new team. The obvious solution here is Oakland, which Ricky has already targeted verbally in a request. It remains to be seen how Ricky's value would be affected by starting in Oakland. The Raider passing game is somewhat in shambles now and there are questions all over this squad. I wouldn't expect monster stats from Williams in 2005 if he was with Oakland -- however, considering that he's sitting on Waiver Wires in many leagues right now, he's still a major buy-low value, even if he doesn't land in the perfect situation.

These are just a few "Change of Address" considerations. There are a number of other candidates, and I'll be adding more to this thread as I research more. Feel free to add your own opinions on where certain players will end up.
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Postby The_Commish » Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:01 am

You hit on the major ones.

I don't see how Seattle won't do everything to keep Alexander.

I think the scenarios you listed will be correct: (Edge to Miami; Henry to Colts; Ricky to Oakland (where he'll be just fine).

Rudi Johnson and A-train are also 2 RB FA's, but I think they might be in a #'s squash and won't get the big money they think they'll get. Rudi remains a Bengal IMO. As a Bear fan, I have no clue about A-train, but Thomas Jones is the RB of the future for the Bears. A-train is sure nice insurance though ;-D
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Postby Warpigs » Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:07 am

The_Commish wrote:You hit on the major ones.

I don't see how Seattle won't do everything to keep Alexander.

I think the scenarios you listed will be correct: (Edge to Miami; Henry to Colts; Ricky to Oakland (where he'll be just fine).

Rudi Johnson and A-train are also 2 RB FA's, but I think they might be in a #'s squash and won't get the big money they think they'll get. Rudi remains a Bengal IMO. As a Bear fan, I have no clue about A-train, but Thomas Jones is the RB of the future for the Bears. A-train is sure nice insurance though ;-D


When it comes to A-Train, I think Dallas may start to slide into the picture. Like I said before, I don't think Parcells will try to get a fully established RB for the Cowboys. I don't think he wants to admit that Julius Jones is a bust yet -- a lot will be determined over the next several weeks as Jones gets more and more carries and Dallas can start to get an idea of whether or not Jones will indeed be the Cowboy RB of the future. Personally, I have my reservations, and they may bring in an A-Train type player to solidify the RB spot.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:19 am

Drew Brees. The Chargers have no choice but to trade him unless he leads them on some Tom Brady(2001) like SuperBowl run. Phillip makes too much money, and no team will take on an unproven QB like that in a trade with that kind of salary cap hit. I have no idea as to where Brees will end up.
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Postby The_Commish » Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:21 am

Bress is a FA I believe. I suppose SD could franchise him, but then you probably don't have a lot of takers.
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Postby Warpigs » Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:26 am

Bukoski77 wrote:Drew Brees. The Chargers have no choice but to trade him unless he leads them on some Tom Brady(2001) like SuperBowl run. Phillip makes too much money, and no team will take on an unproven QB like that in a trade with that kind of salary cap hit. I have no idea as to where Brees will end up.


Green Bay. The Packers are struggling to find the QB of the future. They desperately tried to make Tim Couch work, but that obviously flopped. There have been some strong rumors that Green Bay has talked to San Diego about the possibility of Brees becoming Favre's successor. Only time will tell and there's nothing official out there.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:30 am

The_Commish wrote:Bress is a FA I believe. I suppose SD could franchise him, but then you probably don't have a lot of takers.


I believe they will franchise him. If they do franchise him they only run the risk of paying him a high salary for one more year, and give Phillip more time to develop, if it turns out this year was a fluke. There is a lot of risk involved but the Chargers are in a position where they almost have to gamble if he finishes the year strong, and I think they will.
"At 60 yards it wont be a record FG distance, It will however set a record for longest post field goal celebration if Gramatica makes it."

Al Michaels, in reference to a Gramatica 60YRD field goal attempt week 5(2003 season) of Monday Night Football.
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Re: 2005 Change of Address Ponderings

Postby Arlo » Mon Nov 15, 2004 8:21 am

Warpigs wrote:Marvin Harrison ... I personally think that the Colts will stick with him for personal reasons.

The question is whether the era of decisions being based on personal reasons isn't coming to an end entirely. This'll certainly be an interesting situation to watch unfold...
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Postby Keyser_WV » Mon Nov 15, 2004 9:15 am

I definately think Edge is gone.

Seeing as though Manning is hell bent on calling passing plays no matter the situation.

Up 30 and called 3 straight passes.....at the 1 yard line constantly calling pass plays.

Edge will get sick of all the Manning hype.

I am wondering if Marino did the same thing when he got the record. Does anyone know?

Seems like Manning is only thinking about the record this year.

They are winning but at some point he is going to get smashed and possibly hurt. It will seem pretty silly if they are up 30 when it happens.

Glad I'm not an Edge owner this year.

Does anyone think Dominic Rhodes is worth a roster spot in a keeper league or will they trade for someone as Warpigs mentioned?
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Postby Mercer Boy » Mon Nov 15, 2004 9:19 am

Keyser_WV wrote:They are winning but at some point he is going to get smashed and possibly hurt. It will seem pretty silly if they are up 30 when it happens.

Manning has never missed a game (to my knowledge) and has only been sacked liked 4 or 5 times this year...so unless the line collapses or Manning starts holding the ball too long, I don't see him getting hurt.

Edge is taking a hit with the TD production, though. This was looking to be a good year for him, but the pass offense for Indy is too dominating. Manning calling an audible every play doesn't help, either.
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