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Draft Strategy: Sticking with a middle round draft order?

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Draft Strategy: Sticking with a middle round draft order?

Postby Rusman » Mon Nov 15, 2004 7:51 pm

I've been playing FF for 4 years now and each year I've been somewhere in the middle or end of the draft order. I have done well every year as I made it to the playoffs, but only two years did I do well enough to win money.

As I said, I've never been in the top draft order, and since I've made the playoffs and won money, I'm kinda liking being at the bottom of the barrel as far as picking goes. Now I know that FF isn't all about just picking your team; trades and the WW play a big part.

We all know that the talent pool drops off significantly at a few points in the draft. I feel that it conincides with the 2nd round picks for the top guys. The last guys to pick have already almost hit the talent drop off when they make their first pick.

So, for that reason, I think I will try to get a middle round draft pick in the years to come.

What do you guys think?
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Postby gatorman1122 » Mon Nov 15, 2004 7:58 pm

Here's my advance New Year's Resolution for FF
1st rd-whatever pick: try to get Peyton Manning or Daunte Culpepper
2nd rd-get Randy Moss, TO, McNabb
3rd rd-2nd rate RB
4th rd-2nd/3rd rate RB
don't draft TE, K, or D
If I can't get manning/culpepper/mcnabb, wait til rds 7-8 for 2nd/3rd rate qb

Basically, I'm just trying to get Manning or Culpepper, which pretty much solidifies my playoff spot.
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Postby matmat » Mon Nov 15, 2004 8:07 pm

depends.

My view is that there are a few (maybe 6) elite players that you want at least one of, about 10-15 top tier players that you want 1-2.

The key to a good season is to get one of the top 6 or so and one of the next 12, or so... so, in effect, you don't want your second pick to be any later than, say, 18th, which means that for:

8 team league you REALLY want the 1st or 2nd pick (1,16,17 or 2, 15,18)

10 team league you want 3-6( 3&18, 4&17, 5&16 or 6&15)

12 team league ... you probably want the 6th spot, or thereabouts. personally for bigger leagues I am also happy if I get near the tail end of the draft as I am likely to get my pick of any two of the top-tier (but non-elite) players...

for larger leagues it gets even hairier.

the key, however, I believe is to be smart during your draft -- stick to your strategy and execute a value-based strategy.
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Postby The_Dude » Mon Nov 15, 2004 9:04 pm

gatorman1122 wrote:Here's my advance New Year's Resolution for FF
1st rd-whatever pick: try to get Peyton Manning or Daunte Culpepper
2nd rd-get Randy Moss, TO, McNabb
3rd rd-2nd rate RB
4th rd-2nd/3rd rate RB
don't draft TE, K, or D
If I can't get manning/culpepper/mcnabb, wait til rds 7-8 for 2nd/3rd rate qb

Basically, I'm just trying to get Manning or Culpepper, which pretty much solidifies my playoff spot.


Honestly, I'm gonna do the same thing I did last year - and that's draft running backs like they're going out of style. But drafting running backs doesn't just mean using your first couple picks on quality guys, but on doing your homework, and figuring out who the value picks are gonna be. In the first eight rounds this year, I drafted 5 running backs (first two picks Taylor and Rudi), 2 wide receivers, and 1 qb... and I'm 9-1.

I'll only have to "think about it" if I get the #1 or #2 pick. I expect that Manning and C-Pep will go 1-2 in my redraft league next year. After those two, I consider the rest of the QBs in the "middle" to be a wash. McNabb has had a very good season, but point wise (at least with my league settings), guys like Brett Favre, Marc Bulger, Drew Brees and Jake Plummer have been just as effective, and were a much better bargain in the draft. Plummer went in round 8 and Brees was a waiver wire save-my-season pick up. Bottom line - I wouldn't even take McNabb if he was on the board in round 3 (and no, my name is not Rush).

Of course, all of this depends on settings. If you play a 2 WR, 2 RB league, drafting wide receivers like Moss and TO early is important. If you play with more flexibility, you can gamble a bit more at the WR position.

But, the guys at the top of my draft list next year, outside of Manning and C-Pepp are going to all be running backs (Tiki, Priest, Alexander, Ahman, LT2, Martin, Deuce, Edge, Portis, Jamal Dillon, Brown). Honestly, I hope I have the corner (10-11) pick next year. I'll probably snag some crazy combo of Deuce, Jamal, Edge, Portis, Dillon and Brown. The guy who drafts Peyton #1 overall is still going to have to deal with the reality that his #1 running back is going to be Warrick Dunn or Michael Pittman.
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Postby Arlo » Tue Nov 16, 2004 5:58 am

In theory, the earlier your pick, the better off you are. Fortunately, however, that advantage is slim enough that it's probably offset by year-to-year changes in dropoff location, not to mention draft strategies.

Personally, I like the extra control of the first and last picks, particularly in IDP leagues. But in the end, it's mainly a matter of taste. It's all good. :-)
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