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Please, Stop projecting Manning to be a 1st rd FF pick....

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Postby The_Commish » Tue Nov 16, 2004 11:00 pm

I think it'd be funny if Ricky/Edgerrin changed teams. Indy passed on Ricky for Edgerrin in the draft.
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Postby The Lung » Tue Nov 16, 2004 11:23 pm

In 2004, the Colts have faced the "easy" secondaries of the AFC West and NFC North: Kansas City, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, and have Detroit and San Diego coming up as well as repeat divisional rivalry games against Houston and Tennessee.

In 2005, the Colts will face their divisional rivals again, along with the AFC North and NFC West. If the Indy team stays relatively unchanged and the opposing defenses' strengths don't swing wildly, who's to say that Manning and Co. would not carve up equally as well Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle? Just those last four NFC West games alone may justify a high draft pick!
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Postby Mudd » Tue Nov 16, 2004 11:27 pm

latraffic wrote:
vuch wrote:i took manning as the 7th overall pick and i was made fun of, but im in first 2 gams ahead of everybody


Same story here. But there was a method to my madness. I calculated that Dom Davis and Dillon would slip through until the 2nd and 3rd rounds and luckily, I was right. And now with the Priest out, I'm gunning for the top spot this week. ;-D

That's the thing. I think there is plenty of value at RB in the later rounds.

Chris Brown and Tiki Barber we both taken in the FIFTH round in my main league. Thomas Jones in the 11th. NO ONE drafted Droughns in any league, anywhere. Curtis Martin went in the 7th round too. Fred Taylor, Barlow, Stephen Davis, Rudi, Henry.....ALL taken ahead of the previously mentioned backs.

The guy who is 8-1 drafted Moss 1st and C Pepp second.

All this said, I'm not totally sold on taking RB's with my first two picks no matter what. I think I'll be leaning more toward drafting the best fantasy player on the board.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Wed Nov 17, 2004 3:27 am

I really find this funny.I got completely dogged for even the mere mention of drafting Manning #1 this year,and now all I hear is it's a fluke,it can't happen again.Okay fellas,realize Peyton does close to this every year.Yes,this one is a bit better than the last,especially in the TD area,but all I know is if I didn't buy into the RB first theory,I would be sitting alot prettier than I am right now.I won't make that mistake again next year.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Nov 17, 2004 5:29 am

The Lung wrote:In 2004, the Colts have faced the "easy" secondaries of the AFC West and NFC North: Kansas City, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, and have Detroit and San Diego coming up as well as repeat divisional rivalry games against Houston and Tennessee.

In 2005, the Colts will face their divisional rivals again, along with the AFC North and NFC West. If the Indy team stays relatively unchanged and the opposing defenses' strengths don't swing wildly, who's to say that Manning and Co. would not carve up equally as well Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle? Just those last four NFC West games alone may justify a high draft pick!

This is the type of stuff I was looking for...thanks TL. ;-D

Now that I see what he's up against, I would think about using an early 2nd rounder on Manning as opposed to a late 2nd. I'm sure he'll go before that, but if I get a late draft position and he's on the board, he's going to be one of the guys I'd take. But, I'll wait to see if any of the players on Indy's offense leave before I make my final determination.

The position I would draft him might also increase if there are less than 8 qualified #1 RB's. Right now I'd say Holmes (if he plays), LT, Green, SA, Deuce, Jamal, and Portis (I suppose that's debatable) are locks. Then we have the questionable calls - Barber, Brown, Edge, D. Davis, Martin, Thomas Jones, McGahee, and Staley (if Bettis quits). The question would be how much they are valued. You have to throw Randy Moss in the mix, and you could make a case for Owens being in the same class as the late #1 RB's. Would having Manning/Culpepper (I don't know what his sched is for next year) be better than having a stud WR like Moss and Owens?

I think it's safe to say that if you got Manning at what many thought his value was this year (late 2nd), you are probably winning your league with him and a super-stud RB. So, next year I would assume the power would have to shift to the guys at the end of the serpentine to try to get the top QB and counteract owners with the top RB's.
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Postby Siggyfawn » Wed Nov 17, 2004 9:12 am

Manning a late 2nd? Are you drunk?

People buy into this "RBs win FF" stuff and it totally blinds them.

First off all, last 3 years (including this year) Manning is a top 3 FF (with #1 last and #3 2 years ago in my league) and #1 this year. DUH. If Manning is a #1 OVERALL pick period. Who else? Holmes? He's getting old. LT? Green? Lewis? Give me a break. Manning is the clear #1, period.

Now beyond maybe him, you're insane if you pick a QB first 5 picks. But if you don't realize Manning is the exception to the rule, you're a fool. Manning might end up being the best QB ever. He's easily the best right now, and frankly it's not even close. He's turned Wayne and Stokley into studs. Edge is eating up yardage mostly due to Manning. Can ANY team put even 8 in the box against manning? I doubt it. This guy has been tearing up the league for the last 3-4 years, and he's now in his PRIME. Period. End of story, he's the best FF player, thanks for coming.

But instead of trying to argue with "RBs win FF" stuff, tell me 10 players you draft ahead of Manning. 10 man league, you said he was late 2nd last year. So tell me the 10-15 people you would have drafted before Manning. There's MAYBE 3. Holmes, LT, Green. Holmes is a very valid #1. But not next year. Injuries and age, he won't get 25+ tds next year I'm sorry. But even this year, Manning was #2. You're acting like this if a fluke. He's been going this for YEARS. You can't see the obvious truth, the best QB in the league is the exception to the RB rule.

Now the reason this rule is true (with the manning exception) is because the drop off between a top rb and a 3rd rnd rb is pretty big. That's why stud RBs do win. BUT, the drop off from Manning to a 3rd/4th round QB is pretty big. So you can't get caught up in "i draft XXX first". You draft the best players when it's your turn. If you're 8th, and the top 7 RBs get taken, you're a moron if you don't take Manning. If Manning, Cpepp, McNabb get taken 1,2,3 overall, you're a moron if you don't pick a top RB. You just can't restrict yourself with silly "never draft a QB in first 2 rounds" type stuff. Bottom line is you draft the best value you can, then go from there. And Manning's FF value is beyond argument. Bottom line, check the stats. Go back as many years as you want. You can argue Manning vs any RB. He's more reliable then any RB, and Manning vs a 3rd round QB, is as big as the gab for RBs is. And like I said, that's why you draft RBs 1st round, the value gap. But I'm contenting that Manning has that same value gap, the last 3 years bear that fact out.
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Re: Please, Stop projecting Manning to be a 1st rd FF pick....

Postby BrutallyHuge » Wed Nov 17, 2004 9:29 am

iloveny18 wrote:the only problem is, that SA will probably resign or get franchised, and a few of those backs aren't as good as henry/r.williams. there are lots of teams that are looking for a RB this year. dallas, detroit, TB, arizona, miami, and oakland are teams that look like they need rb's. but if indy doesn't get henry (and they're not getting ricky) then the rest of the RBs aren't nearly as good as edge. i think indy will likely go after one of the RBs from the bunch in minnesota


I don't think he'll resign. He's so young. He could re-sign with Seattle though.

You have to remember that Seattle has been franchising Walter Jones for a few years now. With Hass, SA, and Walter Jones all FAs, there will be a big decision to make. Personally, I think Walter Jones will get the franchise again. Holmgren thinks he's more important than anyone on that team.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Nov 17, 2004 9:49 am

Siggyfawn wrote:Manning a late 2nd? Are you drunk?

People buy into this "RBs win FF" stuff and it totally blinds them.

Well, considering I've drafted RB's first every year I've played fantasy football and gotten 1st once and 2nd twice, I think it works pretty well. :-)

The Manning owner last year missed the playoffs while I used Bulger and a more balanced team with consistent RB's to get 2nd place. Most years, Manning has one good game and then one bad game. Go look back at the game logs. If you wasted a #1 pick on him last year, you probably lost unless you made some big deals or your league is inept at drafting.

This year is a whole new ballgame. He's having a huge game every week. It may happen again, but it's unlikely to. That's why I will not waste a #1 pick on him whereas #1 RB's are more scarce and will produce big points for you about 75% of the time compared with the 50% Manning normally does.

Also add to this the fact that #2 RB's were totally misvalued this year. So, people who took Manning first could have easily gotten a guy that turned into a stud. This will not happen next year as we now have an idea what some of the RB's in that pool will do. So unless another weird shift of RB's happens, first round Manning drafters will get stuck with third rate starting RB's (like the guy who had Manning in my league last year had). If Manning goes back to off again/on again greatness, then your team will lose most of the games he was off.

I laughed at them this year, and I'll laugh at them next year if it blows up in their face. I'll take my #1 RB, my 6th round QB, and uber-balanced team and still end up making it to the Super Bowl.
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Postby eaglesrule » Wed Nov 17, 2004 10:02 am

it does work pretty well. but at the end fo the day its still totall points for your team.

I thought manning at number 3 overall was a big stretch, the guy just loves manning.

But I think all in all it seems much easier for a running back to come from no where than a qb. I don't think it is comepletely absurd to buck the trends of "prevailing wisdom" sometimes, if everyone follows, the "backs, backs, backs" rule, then everyone is going to have the equal playing field. if you went for manning, moss, owens or something like that, and got two of them -- it can pan out for you big time. it can also backfire -- but I wouldn't call it luck that teams that did it are winning.

at the end of the day, 45 (or whatever) td's is still 45 td's.

I mean seriosuly with how devalued barber and martin were, not to mention people like emmit smith -- and how pittman, bettis, droughns probably weren't even drafted, you could have drafted manning and owens with a ladder pick int he first and second, and probably ended up with martin/barber and one of the other guys.

Backs are hugely important, but there are still busts -- fred taylor, dom davis, barlow seem to be wasted picks relative to where they are. qb and wide out aren't scarce (I personally disagree -- elite wide outs are the scarcist thing going, it seems) but at the same time, barring injury you know manning, moss and ownes weren't going to be busts.

I go either way, but I think rigidity in draft thinking is dangerous. It does seem that every year there are backs who emerge later, and backs that bust out. I don't think it is that cut and dry as people make it sound.

you could have gotten mcgahee and droughns cheaply or for free on the wire, and probably martin/barber to go with the "dumb picks"...
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Postby latraffic » Wed Nov 17, 2004 10:27 am

It all goes back the strategy of drafting the "best player available at his position." I drafted Manning in the middle of the first round after Holmes, LT, Green and Portis were gone. On my list (we all do have a list before you start drafting, right? One that we do not deviate from no matter what?) :-) Anyway, on my list the next person was Manning. He was available, the others weren't. I knew I'd be wasting a strong 1st round pick on a unproven RB if I used it on Dom Davis or whatever, so I spent it wisely on Manning.

IMO, it's critical to use that first pick on a 1st round caliber player. Drafting a 2nd round quality RB just because the ffb magazines say you must is just not smart drafting.
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