A strategy for next year

[KingGhidra]

It doesn't work the same though.The running backs are the mediocre group,with only a few top QB's.Brees is a pleasant surprise,but I assure you I am not going to win a championship with him,and I have Brown,Taylor and Duece in my backfield.If I took Manning 1st instead of Deuce,I could still have found Tiki,T.Jones or a half dozen backups that played this year to make up my backfield.

And if you had taken Alexander in the first instead of Manning or Deuce, Owens in the 2nd and McNabb in the 3rd, you'd be sitting even prettier.

Revisionist drafting does not work.

The problem isn't that enough QBs don't go in the first, it's that the wrong good players slip too far. Players like Tiki and C-Mart.

If everyone got off the "omg I have to have the next best thing, omg barlow is gonna be a stud and i want him as my #1 instead of rbs who have done it year in and year out four years, omg tiki is gonna lose carries to ron dayne even though ron dayne is a terrible rb but i believe it anyway", drafts would be a lot more competitive.

Fact is, you're more likely to find a sleeper QB late or on the wire than a RB.

In 2004, how many RBs could you have plucked off the wire or fell past the 6th round that will be worth starting for at least half the year?

Two. Reuben Droughns, Emmit Smith

How about 2003?

Three. Domanick Davis, Rudi Johnson, Moe Williams

Maybe Hearst?

2002?

Umm.. Michael Bennett?

Yes, there's a handful of guys that will be good for 1-4 games (Moore, Blaylock, Stecker), but if you're basing your strategy on starting the wire pickup of the week at RB, you're gonna be leaking tons of points at the position. RB is a position you generally can't afford to leak tons of points at.

Now how many QBs can you name the last three years that were worth starting at least half the season that were waiver wire pickups or fell out of the top rounds? I can name a lot more than the 6 RBs I listed above. There's your proof right there. It's very difficult to get a RB off the wire that will explode and be a stud. It's far easier for WRs and QBs. That's just the way FF is played now.

Now let's be really honest. Peyton Manning is worth a 1st round draft pick in 2004. He's on pace to throw 50 TDs. That's about the only time a QB is gonna be worth a 1st round draft pick in hindsight. Now cmon. No one thought he was gonna throw 50 TDs. Sure it's nice that he is, and yeah he's been one of the top fantasy QBs the last 5 years but he wasn't worth a 1st rounder. A season like this comes around every... Well 11 years. There are some seasons when QBs in general are worth a lot more than usual, but a Manning/Culpepper like season is rare. Next year when Manning goes back to throwing for his normal 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, people will be moaning what a waste of a draft pick taking a QB in the first round was and how stupid they were for letting <insert name here> RB fall to the end of the first round.


Oh yeah, I bet you there are quite a few championship teams this season with Brees on them. To say you can't win a championship with his performance this year is absurd.

[J2thez929]

This is an interesting stategy but with the parity in the NFL as it is today. Who can say that a McNabb/TO combo next year will be as effective next yeas as they are this year.

A perfect example of this is a Manning/Harrison combo. Now if you drafting Manning you are doing real good but Harrison has given way to Wayne and Stokley this year. So by taking Manning and Harrison as #1 and #2 picks might end up hurting you due to lack of production from either side.

Maybe next year, it will be a Bulger/Holt who are tearing it up again or maybe a Rothisberger/Ward combo. Again, I am not saying that taking McNabb/TO combo would be bad but it may not bring the results like you expect. I am a firm believer in taking the best available with RBs then a top WR as my priorities. But as the saying goes, "To each his own"

[The Guru]

NEVER TAKE A QB IN THE 1ST ROUND.

That's rule #1. That will never change.

I'm sticking with always taking a RB in the 1st round. Then going for a top WR (Moss/TO) in the 2nd or maybe 1 of the top 3 QBs if they are still there. Otherwise I'll take my 2nd RB in that round.

[hammerwx]

I'm in 7 leagues and decided to experiment a little with draft strategy this year.

Usually I'm a RB, RB, RB, WR, QB drafter. In one league I thought I try the WR, QB, RB, RB.

Drafted 7th of 10, got R. Moss and nabbed Culpepper in the 2nd round. I'm 8-2(1st palce) in that league, despite R. Moss's abscence the last 4 weeks.

All of the my other teams are wallowing from 6-4 to 4-6.

In most, but not all of my leagues, the top three teams have one thing in common. They have Manning, Culpepper or McNabb on their roster.

Can we now say that the rule changes are having an impact on some QB's?

[KingGhidra]

Can we now say that the rule changes are having an impact on some QB's?

Ask again in two years. Looking at one year and saying things are totally different now won't give you the right answer. I'm more interested in the TE trend than the QB one. Are teams going after more athletic/pass catching TEs or are teams just utilizing their TE more to beat the cover 2 defense which is so common now?

[Sixxgunn]

I guess it seems that some people are going to believe in the RB first theory,and never waver.I'm no longer going to try to sway those people,just draft the way I feel is best and hope it turns out right.Only one guy wins a year,so to say it's a guy that drafts RB first,or a guy that drafts QB first is going to be the absolute unquestioned winner is moronic.It's been won by either type of strategy(let's not discount the WR first guys as well)so each year it's a toss up.

[UNDEFEATED]

NEVER TAKE A QB IN THE 1ST ROUND.

That's rule #1. That will never change.

I'm sticking with always taking a RB in the 1st round. Then going for a top WR (Moss/TO) in the 2nd or maybe 1 of the top 3 QBs if they are still there. Otherwise I'll take my 2nd RB in that round.

UNLESS its Manning Or Culpepper in a 6-point passing TD league. You can make an arguement for Mcnabb but second to third round is where he is going.

You cannot deny that these QBs played exceptionally well this year.

How can you NOT select Manning or CPEP in the first round. This is not the traditional thing to do. It is called progression.

In a 10 or 12 Teamer THESE GUYS ARE GOING IN THE FIRST ROUND.

[matmat]

I don't understand. I really don't. why are some of you so set on drafting a RB in the first round?

you really should read up on value based draft... until then people that do do that will just keep taking your money.

[UNDEFEATED]

I don't understand. I really don't. why are some of you so set on drafting a RB in the first round?

you really should read up on value based draft... until then people that do do that will just keep taking your money.

Im with you mat-mat...

List of players that are MUSTS in the first round non-RB

Manning
Cpep
Owens
Moss

Argueable:
Mcnabb

Depth at RB league wide is getting better and Consistent WR are few and far between.

[KingGhidra]

You cannot deny that these QBs played exceptionally well this year.

You cannot deny that throwing 40+ TD passes in a year is highly unusual and not the norm. Even throwing 35+ is unusual. What happens when Manning and Culpepper are only throwing 29/30 TD passes next year at most? It's amazing how one year can make ffers lose their minds completely. Have fun taking Manning with the first overall pick in 2005.