Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Interesting thread fellas. Personally, I think those with more experience in FF will see things much different than those who have started playing within the last 3 yrs - especially in regards to the Manning decision.
Cornbread, I know I shouldn't doubt you because you've pretty much beat me up on everything I've disagreed with you on. But can you honestly say that there is a sure thing next year coming out of the RB race? I can't see it. And Manning whether it be this year or any other year has been as consistent as they come. And it's not like this season came out of nowhere. He doesn't just have 1 great WR now...he has 3. Plus a healthy Edge which helps as well. Of course next year those things will change but we can't predict the future so as of right now there is no one I'd rather have on my team than Manning.
Let me answer this a different way - by stating the rule of how draft position is determined: draft position is determined by position scarcity.
Through 13 weeks, Manning is not leading the league in passing yds - that belongs to Bulger (297 to 290) - however, there are 10 QBs averaging over 250 yds per game. That means, that the elite QBs are averaging 1 more point a game in yardage points than the 10th best (based on standard Yahoo scoring of 50 yds per point). So, as far as yardage is concerned, there really isnt a big argument to draft Peyton or any elite QB early.
That brings us to TDs - Peyton has only thrown more than 30 TDs one other time - 2000. So, to say that this season is more than likely a career yr for Peyton - breaking the alltime TD record and all - is sound money if you are talking Vegas terms. The chances that he breaks 40 TDs again in 2005 is wishful thinking. I truly believe this season all the stars and planets aligned for Peyton and produced a schedule that was condusive to this type of production. It is hard for me to see that happening again next yr. The TDs thrown leaders over the last 3 yrs were at 32, 28, and 36.
As for situational changes, of course those would factor into my rankings a great deal, so if IND can resign their core, then I would be more inclined to rank him higher - if not, no. Time will tell on that.
My whole point is that I cant see Manning having a 2005 similar to 2004, and see him regressing back to his norm - but slightly higher - that puts him at around 270 ypg and 25-35 TDs. Does that make him an elite QB - absolutely. Does that mean he should be drafted high - absolutely not. Why? Because there should be at least 9-12 other QBs that should average anywhere between 2-6 points per game fewer than him over the course of a season - again, not enough to make him that much more valuable.
What I havent talked about is the depth at the other positions. Coming into this yr I knew there were a number of poorly ranked RBs, so I decided to concentrate on the elite WRs in the 2nd rd - now I was slightly off on specific rankings of them, but I will more than likely have them rated pretty high again next yr. As for RBs - I think LT is a lock for #1 RB going into next yr. The TE landscape has changed drastically this yr, and although TG is still the man, the depth at that position that has emerged this yr has severely cut his value. The elite WRs are even more valuable - can you see Moss or TO falling to the 2nd rd next yr?
We also have to look at the likelyhood of injuries - KG did a study on that a while back, so maybe he would be kind enough to reshare his results - basically RBs are the most susceptible to injuries, followed by QBs and WRs. The likelyhood that any QB play an entire season without missing a game is pretty remote - so for Peyton to do it 8 seasons in a row (this yr is his 7th) is really unlikely IMO. Just another something to think about.
I do see Peyton as an end of the 1st rd type of pick in 2005, but as a top 5 player? That would just be a mistake.