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2006 FFL first 5 Draft picks...

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Postby biju » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:18 am

KingGhidra wrote:That said, McGahee is not a top 10 pick next year unless they do something concrete about that line. Otherwise he's gonna be one of those real hot/cold guys. He'll definitely get a full workload in 2005, which is what you like to see. Changing from Bledsoe to Losman in 2005 is probably an upgrade, so that helps just a bit.


There is the biggest problem of threads like this. It's extremely tough to gauge what the hell is going to happen between years at this point in time. For the folks that picked Barlow to blow up this year they probably didn't account--or didn't assume it would matter much--for the rest of the SF offense leaving...myself included. This doesn't even count your schedule, O-line changes, fullback changes (yes, it makes a HUGE difference), how your defense rates, as well as coaching changes.

I don't think Losman is going to be an improvement in his first year starting. He might be a better long term upgrade, but very few QBs succeed in their first year and I expect a seriously nasty learning curve. Because of this, teams are going to be able to stack 8 in the box and McGahee is going to have a really tough time duplicating his numbers. I don't expect him to be worthy of more than a late second round pick, although he's going to go much higher if he keeps this up.

Maybe I'm wrong. It wouldn't be the first time, but I'm certainly not going to take that gamble with a first round pick. With the way my season is going I'm going to pick about 11th or 12th out of 14 teams so I'm expecting to land someone like Fred Taylor or even Deuce McAllister.

I'll take them over Willis any day.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Nov 30, 2004 1:24 pm

Interesting thread fellas. Personally, I think those with more experience in FF will see things much different than those who have started playing within the last 3 yrs - especially in regards to the Manning decision.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Tue Nov 30, 2004 4:26 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Interesting thread fellas. Personally, I think those with more experience in FF will see things much different than those who have started playing within the last 3 yrs - especially in regards to the Manning decision.


Cornbread, I know I shouldn't doubt you because you've pretty much beat me up on everything I've disagreed with you on. But can you honestly say that there is a sure thing next year coming out of the RB race? I can't see it. And Manning whether it be this year or any other year has been as consistent as they come. And it's not like this season came out of nowhere. He doesn't just have 1 great WR now...he has 3. Plus a healthy Edge which helps as well. Of course next year those things will change but we can't predict the future so as of right now there is no one I'd rather have on my team than Manning.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby KingGhidra » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:26 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote: But can you honestly say that there is a sure thing next year coming out of the RB race?


Can you honestly say that Manning will throw 50 TDs again?
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:04 pm

KingGhidra wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote: But can you honestly say that there is a sure thing next year coming out of the RB race?


Can you honestly say that Manning will throw 50 TDs again?


Thats wasn't my point at all. I'd take a sure 35 TDs from my QB over a risky RB pick that might be injured half the year....or be outproduced by guys that were picked rounds later. Lets just say this year I'd be happier with Manning Tiki and C-Mart....over Priest, Barlow, and Vick. And since C-mart wasn't even picked till the 4th round in most drafts and Tiki in the 3rd 4th or 5th...then you could even through in a couple WRs in the first 5 rounds and still end up with better RBs and a better QB. You can say all you want that what I'm talking about is inexperience...but thats BS. The fantasy world is changing and the QB position can win you a championship by it self. RBs can't and they are risky.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:36 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Interesting thread fellas. Personally, I think those with more experience in FF will see things much different than those who have started playing within the last 3 yrs - especially in regards to the Manning decision.


Cornbread, I know I shouldn't doubt you because you've pretty much beat me up on everything I've disagreed with you on. But can you honestly say that there is a sure thing next year coming out of the RB race? I can't see it. And Manning whether it be this year or any other year has been as consistent as they come. And it's not like this season came out of nowhere. He doesn't just have 1 great WR now...he has 3. Plus a healthy Edge which helps as well. Of course next year those things will change but we can't predict the future so as of right now there is no one I'd rather have on my team than Manning.


Let me answer this a different way - by stating the rule of how draft position is determined: draft position is determined by position scarcity.
Through 13 weeks, Manning is not leading the league in passing yds - that belongs to Bulger (297 to 290) - however, there are 10 QBs averaging over 250 yds per game. That means, that the elite QBs are averaging 1 more point a game in yardage points than the 10th best (based on standard Yahoo scoring of 50 yds per point). So, as far as yardage is concerned, there really isnt a big argument to draft Peyton or any elite QB early.
That brings us to TDs - Peyton has only thrown more than 30 TDs one other time - 2000. So, to say that this season is more than likely a career yr for Peyton - breaking the alltime TD record and all - is sound money if you are talking Vegas terms. The chances that he breaks 40 TDs again in 2005 is wishful thinking. I truly believe this season all the stars and planets aligned for Peyton and produced a schedule that was condusive to this type of production. It is hard for me to see that happening again next yr. The TDs thrown leaders over the last 3 yrs were at 32, 28, and 36.
As for situational changes, of course those would factor into my rankings a great deal, so if IND can resign their core, then I would be more inclined to rank him higher - if not, no. Time will tell on that.

My whole point is that I cant see Manning having a 2005 similar to 2004, and see him regressing back to his norm - but slightly higher - that puts him at around 270 ypg and 25-35 TDs. Does that make him an elite QB - absolutely. Does that mean he should be drafted high - absolutely not. Why? Because there should be at least 9-12 other QBs that should average anywhere between 2-6 points per game fewer than him over the course of a season - again, not enough to make him that much more valuable.

What I havent talked about is the depth at the other positions. Coming into this yr I knew there were a number of poorly ranked RBs, so I decided to concentrate on the elite WRs in the 2nd rd - now I was slightly off on specific rankings of them, but I will more than likely have them rated pretty high again next yr. As for RBs - I think LT is a lock for #1 RB going into next yr. The TE landscape has changed drastically this yr, and although TG is still the man, the depth at that position that has emerged this yr has severely cut his value. The elite WRs are even more valuable - can you see Moss or TO falling to the 2nd rd next yr?

We also have to look at the likelyhood of injuries - KG did a study on that a while back, so maybe he would be kind enough to reshare his results - basically RBs are the most susceptible to injuries, followed by QBs and WRs. The likelyhood that any QB play an entire season without missing a game is pretty remote - so for Peyton to do it 8 seasons in a row (this yr is his 7th) is really unlikely IMO. Just another something to think about.

I do see Peyton as an end of the 1st rd type of pick in 2005, but as a top 5 player? That would just be a mistake.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:07 pm

Cornbread, You can say what you will about the QBs but look at the RBs? Out of the top 7 RBs this year that everyone had on the top of the 1st round only 4 are in the top 10 in fantsy points. Priest, LT, SA, Green. The other Jamal, Duece, and Portis aren't even close. While guys like Tiki (#1) C-Mart (#4), James (who was just outside of that top 7 debate), Dillon (mid 2nd in most drafts), DD, Rudi (One that I got you on I think). And then there's a bunch of other guys who were either drafted really late (mcGahee, Bettis, Emmitt) or not drafted at all (Droughns, Pittman) who are in the top 15-17. I'm saying the RB position is so much more risky than the QB position and with a top pick you need him to be there and be playing well. I do also agree with the whole WR thing...somewhat. But there were alot of WR busts this year. Ward hasn't lived up to his billing...Harrison is frustratingly inconsistent, even though his overall number will look pretty good. My whole point is if you look at the top QBs you you will find about 7 out of the 10 that belonged there before the season. And I think in my league Peyton is outscoring the number 10 QB by about 200 points. Thats huge!! Tiki is outscoring Rudi (#1 RB vs. #10 RB) by 70. Not all that much....and there's not a very big drop off after that either. There's 20 pretty good RBs out there this year. QBs? There's the obvious choices at the top and those will be the choices that will be at the top next year as well. RBs? Who knows. WRs? Yeah I'll be willing to put my money on Moss and Owens doing the same thing again. Next year though Moss stays healthy and beats owens.

Bottom line: The highest scorers and the most consistent players are the top QBs. And thats what I want with my number 1 pick.


BTW, Cornbread, I've been thinking. you haven't killed me as much as I thought this year. You said Holt would be the #2 WR in the league this year and you said Rudi would be a bust...wrong on both accounts....but I know you have me on a few others so don't take this as gloating.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:55 pm

I wonder if I'm the only person on this board that will select Culpepper before Manning next year...
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Postby J2thez929 » Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:02 pm

Kensat30 wrote:I wonder if I'm the only person on this board that will select Culpepper before Manning next year...


Probably.. lol. But it kinda depends on what happens with Harrison and Edge. That will make a big diffence ;-D
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Postby PSU All Day » Thu Dec 02, 2004 10:31 am

[quote="TheRawDAWG"][quote="Shader"]RB's are too risky to take number one. Basically, I think picking from the 1st spot is incredibly risky and I would always look to trade out.

But if I chose, I would take Manning without a doubt. You guys can argue all you want, but with Manning, I'm getting AT LEAST a ten point advantage over YOUR quarterback...I'm getting a guy who is almost GUARANTEED to play all 16 games, while you take a running back who will probably miss 2 or 3 games to injury, and is taking incredible risks week in and week out.

For instance, look at the top rb's selected last year. Only Alexander has performed great and not missed time due to injury. And I'm talking about the rb's that were top five, (Ahman, Priest, LT, Portis)

Finally, every year there are tons of rb's that emerge from the waiver wire, and NO qb's that come out and put up Manning-type numbers.[/quote]

Don't forget Duece who has also miss time and not been too spectacular...RBs are full of risk...and now QBs are out performing them. It's time to re-evaluate how you draft for FF.[/quote]

On the other hand, there are plenty of QB's that come out of no where to make an impact. Brees, Plummer, Leftwhich. All of those guys were picked late round or not picked at all. Then you have QB's like Hasselback that were a consensus #4 QB and that just plain suck this year. Even Vick (consensus #3 QB this year) was on people's bench until the last few weeks.

I think that Manning is worth a pick behind the first teir of Rb's as he is clearly the top QB and is durable and outscores the 4th QB by a ton.

I would not take him over the first teir of RB's however.
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