I own Onterrio in 2 of 3 leagues (no money - no glory, just pride), and I'm a Viking fan, so I hope he does run away with the job and the Vikes get a 2000 yard 20 TD monster out of Onterrio. The offensive line they have is really going to be impressive. There is a big upside for a single back there, but I don't see it happening. Onterrio will probably be in for the first 2 downs. If it's a passing down on 3rd, Onterrio will probably go to the bench because of his blocking defeciency.
It has been a problem in camp, and became apparent on the first play he entered the game. I didn't see the game, and I've read on Viking fan boards it may not have been his assignment, but he didn't help his cause any by not picking it up sooner. His blocking is a problem. Tice hasn't publicly bashed him over it, and has been publicly supportive. When it comes down to a game, he is not going to put him in there on third and long if he isn't comfortable with his blocking skills.
Moe WILL be the short yardage and goal-line back. Culpepper WILL run a few TD's in himself. The Vikings should once again be among the league leaders in rushing, but it won't be a single back benefitting from all the stats. If it was, he would be a fantasy stud. I'm not predicting doom and gloom for Onterrio. If you can get him after the 7th or 8th round, grab him. I've gotten him around the 10th round in the leagues I've got him in. Don't take him too much earlier than that. Round 8 I can see. Round 7 is borderline, before that is a too big of a risk (10 team league).
Another warning I'd issue is the 'rookie RB theory'. Almost every year there is a rookie RB who becomes a valuable fantasy player. This player is almost always NOT the RB most expect it to be. W Green and D Foster got the hype last year, Portis was a relative darkhorse. Only the Denver RB history supported his hype. Edgerrin exploded when Ricky was the shiznit but got hurt. Fred Taylor was an unknown compared to Curtis (who?) Enis. There are many, many more recent examples. I really should write it all out one day (and save it this time). This is a particularly bad year for rookie RB's. The best one probably won't play (McGahee). LJ is buried behind Priest. Onterrio is a 4th rounder who is becoming the guy everyone expects to succeed form the rookie RB's, which is a signal to me that he will NOT be the rookie RB who is most valuable to your squad.
Again, I'd love to be wrong on this, but prior history would indicate you should not invest much into your Onterrio Smith expectations.
If I were to make a bet on the rookie RB to explode this year, I'd tell them to print me up some Toefield until they run out of paper!
The meek ain't gonna inherit $#!%....'cuz I'll TAKE IT!