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Viking RB battle..the latest

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Postby dgroundhog_ffc » Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:02 pm

When you get down to the 5 yard line, and the QB runs it in 4 times a year, that takes points away from your RB. How about the ball at the goal line - easy TD for your RB, right? With a QB like Culpepper, he WILL do a QB sneak. The Vikings call Culpepper's number down at the goal line ALOT, especially in the QB sneak. They'll run Daunte 3 times in a row on a sneak. Inside the 5, they'll roll him out and give him the option of throwing for a TD, running for a TD, running out of bounds or throwing the ball away. It's a low-risk play that gives Culpepper options. It's basically a QB bootleg, with an option to throw if it is there. These are plays the Vikings use at the goal line all the time. I watch all their games. I see it happen over and over. You can't sit there and watch a game and see Culpepper steal your TD's and play it off like it doesn't hurt your RB's totals. It does.

You seem to have already annointed Onterrio as a can't miss all-around RB stud. He hasn't gained one NFL yard, and you want the Vikings to hand over the full-time RB duties. The Vikings aren't going to change their system because of a 4th round rookie RB who has struggled with pass-blocking. He isn't ready to be a full time RB. He's a perfect candidate for RBBC.

Tice doesn't care about your fantasy teams stats. He is going to do what is best for his team, and that is having Moe as the short yardage back. It makes perfect sense to me. Giving the whole show to Onterrio would be flat out stupid. Culpepper would probably get hurt when Onterrio doesn'tpick up the blitz. Onterrio hasn't proven he can handle being an NFL RB, much less a feature back. The simple answer to 'Why doesn't Onterrio get the ball at the goal line?' is that Moe is a much better option. Moe gobbled up the TD's last year.

I'm not trying to hate on Onterrio. I hope he is a stud for years to come. In a year that looks like a down year for rookie RB's, Onterrio is probably the only one who will begin the year as a starter. There are warning signs that he isn't going to be the fantasy star that most want when they draft him. You can turn a blind eye to them, and go on wishing Onterrio gets the goal line carries, but that won't help your fantasy team when Moe and Culpepper rush for more TD's than Onterrio.

I already stated I'd gamble on Toefield for the rookie RB honors. He might not play at all, but if Freddy gets hurt - which has a better chance of happening than Onterrio being an every down back this year - then Toefield would probably be a better fantasy RB. I expect very average numbers from Onterrio, and only plan on using him as a fill-in player. I'm glad I own him, I'm a Viking fan and want him to be a big-time player. Stepping back from that and analyzing things as a fantasy football owner, I don't hope for too much.
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Postby mack-avelli » Wed Aug 13, 2003 12:16 am

Did you just say you aren't hating on Smith? I think you need to read what you just wrote over again and tell me you aint hating. Cause you sound like you're either hating or the most negative person I have ever seen. And another thing I don't have Smith on my fantasy squad. Guess you got problems with facts huh? You said Moe gobbled up the TD right? He had 11 TDs Bennett had around 4. Thats 15TDs for the RB maybe 1 or 2 more if you count Chapman (if he had any TDs). So tell me... 16 RB touchdowns how will that number change from last year since you said "Culpepper will take away from the RB TDs". Yeh RBs would have more TDs if Culpepper stopped doing that. But 16 TDs is NOT half bad. And please tell me why Moe is so valuable as a TD scorer that you have to give him the ball everytime at the goaline but doesn't always get the ball for short first down yardage?

And just to inform you on a few things talking about "Dont expect big things from a 4th round RB". Do you know why he slipped? Character issues. A DUI... He smoked a blunt... Didn't Moss slip into the late 20's in the draft because of "character issues"? Now no matter what anyone says I know he is one of the top 3 WR in the league. Clinton Portis drafted in the second round... You know the rest of the story. Smith didn't play the whole season in oregon but he still got 1100 rushing yards. So you're saying forget about the facts? Because you have "intuition"? What you got? Womens intuition?
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Postby dgroundhog_ffc » Wed Aug 13, 2003 12:42 am

It's not 'hating', it's analysis. You can have a different analysis, that is fine.

I wouldn't be surprised if Smith got the 4 or 5 TD's that Bennett got. Moe should get 10 TD's, and Culpepper will run in 6-8 more. 2-3 of them will likely be of the 'sneak' variety. Moe having 10 TD's and Culpepper having 6-8 rushing TD's is EXACTLY what brings Onterrio's fantasy production. There are 20+ rushing TD's to be had in the Viking system.

Look at Bennett last year. He gained yards, but had few TD's. That isn't a recipe for fantasy stardom, or even starter-dom.

That is analysis and speculation based on previous histiory, not hating.

As far as Smith being a fourth-rounder, re-read what I said. I don't say he can't contribute because he is a 4th rounder. Quit twisting my words into something that isn't there. It is a rare occurence when an NFL team drafts a RB in the 4th round, inserts him as the feature back, and expects him to do wonderful things. Nobody should be expecting that of Smith. The Vikings aren't. You are the one who doesn't understand why he doesn't get all the carries, all the time.

Trust me, Tice knows his RB's alot better than you do. He knows how to use them best. Questioning his decision to use Moe at the goal line and in short yardage is idiotic. What do you know about football other than managing your little fantasy team?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:25 am

I agree with Dgroundhog. Tice has already admitted he is uncomfortable starting a 4th rd rook at RB and he probably will play it safe. Even still, Bennett was barely a top 20 RB last yr (fell in at 19th), and that was on the team that had the most rushing yds. The point that is being made, is that even if Onterrio becomes the starter, he isnt going to be much more valuable than a backup on a fantasy team.

I love how fantasy owners whine about their RB not getting enough touches or goalline carries. Real NFL coaches dont give a rats ass about fantasy stats. The idea of having a short yardage back is brilliant. The star doesnt have to go into situations where injury risks are greater. The short yardage back needs a different skill set than the everydown back, and most RBs dont have the makeup to be the best at both situations.

Regardless, CPepp and the Vikes do use the QB rollout near the goalline to perfection, and its incredibly tough to defend. They will continue to use it until it is no longer affective, and I simply dont see that happenning.

Since I disagree with people who draft Onterrio as this yrs Portis, put me in the hater camp I guess.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:55 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Since I disagree with people who draft Onterrio as this yrs Portis, put me in the hater camp I guess.


I also don't think Smith will have a huge year, but I'm drafting him late to be a good backup, and have potential to be more.

But, more to the point, who do you think is this years' Portis?
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Postby Purple_Pride » Wed Aug 13, 2003 12:17 pm

Chapman is starting game one according to Tice. BUT he also said that Smith will most likely end up with the majority of the carries. To me that is the definition of a RRBC. Throw in Moe Williams and Culpeppers combined 21 rushing TD last year and I would not be too high on Onterrio. And this from a Viking fan!!!

Im sorry that my 200th post was of a negative tone about my Vikes.
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Postby tjhksig » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:23 pm

There will be no "this year's Portis" this year. Look for that next year (McGahee, Hollings, maybe more). This is truly a bad year for rooks.
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