I have the 3rd pick in a 10 team league. First pick was Ricky and the second pick was McNabb... so I should get LT right? I can get Portis, but LT will do better right?
Fantasy sports are dominated by the 50-50-90 rule. any time you have a 50/50 choice on something, 90% of the time you'll get it wrong.
I saw Vick go #1 overall in one draft. The guy's team absolutely sucks. His #1 RB is Stephen Davis, which means his #1 RB is really Michael Vick.
The guy somewhat got goaded into making the pick. 20 minutes before the draft, we asked who he was taking. He said maybe Vick. Nobody flinched, as I chimed in 'he won't get back to you'. He probably wouldn't have, but I sure wasn't taking him. We talked Vick up pretty good, then laughed at him when he made the pick.
There isn't a guarantee any guy you choose will do better than any other option. Ricky and LT seem to be the consensus top 2 picks at most sites, but I see arguments for Portis or Priest going #1 too. Beyond that, I think anything else is a bit of a reach. LT and Ricky are considered the safe picks. A healthy Priest blows them away. A full year like last year from Portis blows them away. Do you want to gamble a bit for a few hundred yards and a couple extra TD's? If the gamble doesn't pay off, you are in a huge hole. It's a matter of repeating his rookie performance for Portis. Priest declared himself healthy, but NFL defenses are really the only true judge of that.
Last edited by dgroundhog_ffc on Sun Aug 10, 2003 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The meek ain't gonna inherit $#!%....'cuz I'll TAKE IT!
LT vs. Portis ---
Does the fact that LT faces GB and Steeler defenses in traditional playoff weeks 15 and 16, while Portis runs all over Browns and Colts have any bearing on the choice for #1?