I'm in a league that offers 1 pt per 10 yards of combined rushing and receiving; but (-2) for fumbles. I feel like I could live with 1,700 combined yards and 8 TD's from Tiki Barber as my second back, plus giving him about 6 fumbles lost on the year. Roughly that would be:
170 (yards) + 48 (TD's) - 12 (fumbles) = 206 pts
The numbers I'm hearing forecasted for Stephen Davis are 1,400 combined yards and 12 TD's. Doing the same type of math and I'll give him 4 fumbles on the year equates to:
140 (yards) + 72 (TD's) - 8 (fumbles) = 204 pts
However, what scares me about Davis is that by the 10th game of the year they could start giving Foster more-and-more carries because he appears to be more the future of the Panthers than Davis is. I think the stats listed above represent the best that Stephen Davis could hope for from the Panthers offense. His preseason game against the Redskins looked good but is that an indicator of how he is going to dominate rushing defenses on the season...I am not thinking it is.
At worst, I feel like Tiki is equal to anyone else I could have gotten below him even if they do find the end zone more. If Tiki could mimic the type of year he pulled off last year it would have me in the neighborhood of 244 pts, giving me a low-high range of 206-244 fantasy points on the season. That's like 13-15 pts per week on average.
Any additional thoughts? If someone can show that I'm way off in how I'm thinking, I'll consider dealing Tiki.