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Bargain Picks for 2005 FF Draft

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Postby Azrael » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:01 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:Andre Johnson is not going to fall to the 5th or 6th, he went very early 4th in the Extremely Early Mock draft.


I think he'll last that long. There were 20 receivers that were statistically better than him this year.
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Postby Bennett4prez » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:06 pm

Sleepers of 2005.

QB-Jeff Garcia
RB-Willis McGahee
RB-Travis Henry
WR-Nate Burleson
WR-Chad Johnson
WR-Anquan Bolden
TE-Kellen Winslow
PK-Olindo Mare
DEF- San Fransisco 49ers

Honorable Mentions: Trent Green, Duce Staley, Antwaan Randel El, Jim Kleinsasser, Rian Lindell, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last edited by Bennett4prez on Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby CC » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:07 pm

He's 6th or 7th on my board for WRs. I'd consider it a coup to get him mid-4th.
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Postby J2thez929 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:50 pm

I think DeShaun Foster, L. Coles, and D. Boston will be major bargain picks.

You might be able to get DeShaun as your 3rd back and if he stays healthy, I think he is in for a HUGE year. As for Coles, he could be drafted as your 3rd WR and with Brunell gone he should improve on his numbers. Boston will also be choosen as a backup WR and again, he could put up #2 or 3 WR number if Miami improves in the offseason.
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Postby Azrael » Thu Dec 30, 2004 8:07 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:He's 6th or 7th on my board for WRs. I'd consider it a coup to get him mid-4th.


I'll probably have him ranked in the top 10 but I think most people won't. You also have to consider the size of the league. An early 4th rounder in a 12 team league is a late 4th possibly early 5th rounder in a 10 team league.
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Postby CC » Thu Dec 30, 2004 8:39 pm

Azrael wrote:
Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:He's 6th or 7th on my board for WRs. I'd consider it a coup to get him mid-4th.


I'll probably have him ranked in the top 10 but I think most people won't. You also have to consider the size of the league. An early 4th rounder in a 12 team league is a late 4th possibly early 5th rounder in a 10 team league.


Truest, I was talking about a 12 team league.
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Postby kevinoc81 » Fri Dec 31, 2004 10:29 am

Azrael wrote:P.S. McGahee should be a top 3 pick. Had he played all year, he would probably have close to 20 TDs and 1,600-1,700 yards. If you haven't watched him play, there are very few RBs who have his speed, size, power, and explosiveness...maybe LT, after that, he's the next best talent in the league at RB.


I've only seen him on TV. One quick question though:

How come everyone uses the "Fresh Legs" excuse for Julius Jones and nobody mentions that McGahee got to start on his fresh legs at midseason? How come everyone says Julius Jones shouldn't go in the second round even because he is in a tough rushing division, but nobody mentions McGahee's "cupcake" rushing division with New England, NYJ, and Miami?

I am not saying that JJ is better than McGahee at all. I do think that people who draft McGahee in the top 3 are going to be disappointed.
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Postby chchelse » Fri Dec 31, 2004 10:32 am

The one guy I think everyone overlooks is D. Driver. He's quietly put together a great year (1160 yds, 9 Tds.) So while Javon Walker gets all the accolades, Driver gets forgotten, even though he's outscored Walker over the last 13 weeks (I use the last 13 weeks because Walker had one huge game in week 3 that overinflates his true numbers). For the year he is a top 10 wide receiver and 2 years ago he also put up great numbers. I don't know where he will go in the draft next year, but this year I got him in a trade for Anthony Thomas. I bet I can get him in the 6th round.............
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Postby Azrael » Sun Jan 02, 2005 4:51 pm

kevinoc81 wrote:
Azrael wrote:P.S. McGahee should be a top 3 pick. Had he played all year, he would probably have close to 20 TDs and 1,600-1,700 yards. If you haven't watched him play, there are very few RBs who have his speed, size, power, and explosiveness...maybe LT, after that, he's the next best talent in the league at RB.


I've only seen him on TV. One quick question though:

How come everyone uses the "Fresh Legs" excuse for Julius Jones and nobody mentions that McGahee got to start on his fresh legs at midseason? How come everyone says Julius Jones shouldn't go in the second round even because he is in a tough rushing division, but nobody mentions McGahee's "cupcake" rushing division with New England, NYJ, and Miami?

I am not saying that JJ is better than McGahee at all. I do think that people who draft McGahee in the top 3 are going to be disappointed.


I'm sorry but "fresh legs" McGahee was starting a month and a half before Julius Jones was (Oct. 17 vs. Nov. 25). As for SOS in the division NE, Jets, and Miami are 4th, 7th, and 30th against the run while Wash, Philly and NYG are 3rd, 15th, and 28th against the run. Try again.

EDIT: McGahee finishes the year with 1,100+ yards rushing and 13 scores in 11 starts. But I wouldn't feel safe taking him as my No. 1 back, he only averages 100 yards rushing and over a touchdown every game. ;-7
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun Jan 02, 2005 7:36 pm

kevinoc81 wrote:
I've only seen him on TV. One quick question though:

How come everyone uses the "Fresh Legs" excuse for Julius Jones and nobody mentions that McGahee got to start on his fresh legs at midseason?


You can't really characterize a RB that carried the ball 285 times over the course of 15 games/11 starts as having "fresh legs" (week 5).

Julius Jones on the other hand, only carried the ball 170 times over the course of 7 games/6 starts (week 10).

Slight difference...


kevinoc81 wrote:I am not saying that JJ is better than McGahee at all. I do think that people who draft McGahee in the top 3 are going to be disappointed.


Mcgahee seems like a pretty risky early first round pick in 2005 redrafts to me as well. Buffalo got to play NFC West opponents multiple times this year and he is by no means a proven stud at this point in time. I don't see how Mcgahee can fall outside the top10 though... 20+ carries, 100+ yards, and 1+ TD average per start is very hard to come by in the NFL. I would feel more comfortable placing him in the middle of the first. And as a steal at the end of the first (after a couple QBs/WRs if you're lucky).

One thing that virtually no one thinks about at this point in time: what happens if Henry remains a Buffalo Bill? Both are still under contract for 2005....

-----------------------
Interesting statistic:

Mcgahee versus NFC West opponents:
93 carries, 420 yards, 8 TDs (4 games)
23 carries, 105 yads, 2 TDs (per game)
----
4.5 yards per carry, (4) 100+ yard games, (3) games with at least 1 TD


Mcgahee versus all other opponents:
161 carries, 613 yards, 5 TDs (7 games)
23 carries, 87 yards, 0.7 TDs (per game)
----
3.8 yards per carry, (3) 100+ yard games, (3 games with at least 1 TD)


Kinda scary how much of Mcgahee stats came against the worst division in the NFL. Although you can't discount the great games he had against NFC West opponents, his other games left a little something to be desired from a top3 fantasy pick.

Granted all teams will have SOME easy matchups over the course of a season, but Mcgahee doesn't look so stellar without those 4 games versus Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis.
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