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Next year's Kevan Barlow

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Postby portisfan24 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 6:01 pm

Well I dont want to repeat anyone already said, so I will go with Willis McGahee.
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Postby gatorman1122 » Fri Dec 31, 2004 12:32 am

First of all, Travis Henry had a much worse turn out than Barlow, so all you Barlow owners...STOP COMPLAINING!

Well, some could argue that Barlow had higher expectations than Henry. Barlow didn't have anyone to compete with at RB (come on, Maurice Hicks???). On the other hand, Henry is being backed up by a younger, stronger backup RB. If Henry had the starting job for an entire year, he would have posted better numbers than Barlow IMO.
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Postby biju » Fri Dec 31, 2004 4:55 am

These types of posts always make me want to do a little study of "returning to the mean". When a RB (or any fantasy position) performs a certain way for a number of years and has a breakout year (a la Tiki Barber or Curtis Martin) there is likely a high probability he will return to his "mean". Not all the time does it return back to or below, but it generally heads that direction and doesn't continue at the peak level. These are the players who will be drafted too high next year.

Jamal Lewis is a perfect example of this (avg. 85 yds in 2000; 83 in 2002; 129 in 2003; 76 in 2004) and you could probably make a strong case for Ahman Green.

The same can be said about players who perform excellent for years and have an "off" year. Eventually these players will turn around their play (assuming the off year wasn't due to permanent injury, old age, etc.). This year offers players like Deuce McAllister and Clinton Portis (although with Portis changing teams I might be skeptical about his "return").

Corey Dillon is probably the best example of this who was, in hind-sight, likely drafted too low in most 2004 drafts and getting picked after the likes of Barlow (yes, this happened in my league) after a ho-hum 2003 campaign.

Of course, this year has offered so many new RBs that there isn't a good comparison for. I'm at a loss on what to do here.

Having said all that, Manning certainly has the biggest difference between years and that doesn't look good. I'd highly advise not using a first round pick on him, but I can almost guarantee he'll be in the top 6 for ADP. I also noticed that Shaun Alexander seems to have a pretty significant jump in yardage this year but not in TDs. Again, this might not stop me from picking him up...especially if he stays in Seattle.

One last thing to note: this was an "off" year for Tomlinson in terms of yardage, but a boost to his TDs. This is probably due to the emergence of San Diego's offense and that they don't have to rely on Tomlinson getting them downfield. Unless there are drastic movements offseason I don't expect these to change.

Anyway, just something I was thinking about. I'm sure there are cases that disprove this, but most of what I saw from 2003 - 2004 (yes, not a big sample) seemed to be accurate. I'll continue to investigate.
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Postby Tyr » Fri Dec 31, 2004 6:11 am

I actually don't think Barlow is going to bust next year, so long as SF bolsters their offensive line. JJ has the tools to succeed, and I think that as Eli gets more comfortable reading the field, Tiki will see his fair share of targets again.

I think that next years biggest bust may end up being SA. I'll probably get a few people arguing about that one, but if he moves from Seattle to say, Miami, well.. that's a pretty big step down in terms of offensive line. Players also tend to outperform themselves during their contract years. Given his numbers this year, whether he's traded or not, he'll be comfortably locked in a new multi-year contract, which may result in a noticeable drop in stats - which is bound to leave plenty of people that will pick him in the 1.1 - 1.3 area expecting another 1500+ combined / 15+ TD performance sorely dissapointed.
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Postby Free Bagel » Fri Dec 31, 2004 8:30 am

Julius Jones -- It seems like he's going to end up somewhere in the 2nd round. I will avoid him there, I think he will be a relative bust at that spot.

Tiki Barber -- With Warner, he put up 25 fantasy points week in and week out. With Manning, not so much. I think it's been long enough since the switch (week 9 I believe) that people no longer expect the 25 point days out of him. I will draft him based on the numbers he put up with Manning at the helm, which are decent but by no means great. I think most people will do the same. Still, the potential of a return to those 25 point days may boost his draft stock a little too high for my liking. But seriously, enough with the Ron Dayne talk, he will never do anything.

Peyton Manning -- Agree with the masses here. Should have a standard Peyton low 30 TD year. Not what I would want out of a top 5 pick for a QB..

Riju -- I agree with your entire theory, though I usually just refer to it as a "career year." I brought it up a million times last offseason about Torry Holt. His TD numbers were around 4 from season to season his entire career, then suddenly BOOM he scored what, 13 times in 2003? I said all offseason that that was a career year, and hence ranked him behind TO last offseason. However, so did someone picking before me and I ended up having to grab Holt with a grimmace on my face. Luckily I traded him early.
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Postby tomkatt » Fri Dec 31, 2004 11:09 am

biju, I think the biggest reason LT2's yardage numbers are down this year is the fact that he played on about half a groin for a handful of games. I thinks it's a credit to him that he was tough enough to play through it. Without the injury, I think LT2 would have had a MONSTER year for yardage and TD's.
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Postby chchelse » Fri Dec 31, 2004 11:44 am

Riju -- I agree with your entire theory, though I usually just refer to it as a "career year." I brought it up a million times last offseason about Torry Holt. His TD numbers were around 4 from season to season his entire career, then suddenly BOOM he scored what, 13 times in 2003? I said all offseason that that was a career year, and hence ranked him behind TO last offseason. However, so did someone picking before me and I ended up having to grab Holt with a grimmace on my face. Luckily I traded him early


So far Tory is the 7th ranked receiver in my league (1256 Yds 8TD's). Not a terrible year. I grabbed him in the 3rd round as the 4th receiver taken. He has performed below my expectations but certainly has had a very good year. I certainly would not mind having him as my #1 WR next year. He has a ton of talent and his upside is too great for me to pass up. If he's there in the third round again I would take him in a second.

Now with that said, I think Curtis Martin will fall the farthest next year. He'll be 32 years old, carried the ball 343 times this year, averaged 320 carries over the past 7 years. I just can't imagine him being able to sustain this much longer. The past 7 years he's averaged 1290 rushing yards, this year he's at 1544 and counting. This year he has 14 TD's, 7 year average, 7 TD's. Old man with years of abuse on his body + carreer year = high risk pick, in my book. Can't wait until next year when someone grabs him in the early to middle to second round. It surely won't be me.........
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Postby moochman » Fri Dec 31, 2004 12:12 pm

I think Nick Goings is a lock for the first annual Kevin Barblow award. I think that playing behind a healthy Steven Davis and Foster will limit his playing time so much that he could put up Barblow type numbers.

Seriously, I could see Brian Westbrook's numbers crash next season. With TO we've already seen Westy's TD numbers plummet. Buckhalter will be back and some will draft Westbrook forgetting how much Reid likes to platoon.
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Postby Goatwhacker » Fri Dec 31, 2004 1:47 pm

tomkatt wrote:biju, I think the biggest reason LT2's yardage numbers are down this year is the fact that he played on about half a groin for a handful of games.


Well THERE'S an interesting mental picture.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jan 25, 2005 1:06 am

moochman wrote:I think Nick Goings is a lock for the first annual Kevin Barblow award. I think that playing behind a healthy Steven Davis and Foster will limit his playing time so much that he could put up Barblow type numbers.

Seriously, I could see Brian Westbrook's numbers crash next season. With TO we've already seen Westy's TD numbers plummet. Buckhalter will be back and some will draft Westbrook forgetting how much Reid likes to platoon.


Westbrook scored 1 less offensive TD than last season. Not to mention he surpassed 1500 total yards in 12 games!#@#$. Did I mention that he carried the ball 15 or more times in only 4 games this season? Platoon or not Westbrook is a SOLID #2 RB. If Westbrook plays the entire 16 game schedule next year, any loss of touches to another RB (Levens got 100+ this year) will be made up by those extra games played.
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Back on topic, a bust that I see coming in 2005 is Fred Taylor. This guy has battled back from an injury plagued start of his career to play in 40+ straight games. The longest streak in the NFL at his position. From 2003 to 2004, Taylor went from semi-stud, to first round bust as he had virtually no offensive TD production. I see a lot of people drafting this guy in the late 2nd, early 3rd round next year expecting a rebound to 1800+ total yards and/or 10+ TDs from Freddy ala Curtis Martin, but he is on my avoid list.

First off, Freddy had a quiet injury during the end of the 2004 season that he played through until the pain became too much in the last few weeks of the season. Not many people were very concerned at the time because he was nothing more than a marginal RB play due to his poor overall performance up to that point in time. He scored something like 2 TDs all year and his yardage numbers weren't up to his talent level. What hasn't been widely circulated is that Fred Taylor recently had surgery to repair damage to his MCL.

We're talking about a guy with a history of knee injury that turns 29 in the offseason that just had surgery. He is "expected to make a full recovery" but they're not talking about his fantasy production. Look at all the negatives on this guy's resume: The Jag's fired their OC in the offseason, just had knee surgery, lost short yardage looks.... Things are just not adding up to a bounceback year from Fred.
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