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Who will be hot during the Fantasy playoffs, about to start

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Who will be hot during the Fantasy playoffs, about to start

Postby number 2# pick » Thu Dec 30, 2004 6:12 pm

This will be the 3rd year my league has a fantasy playoff team. We draft a team from the teams who made the playoffs and most points after superbowl wins. My question is who will step it up during the playoffs, Westbrook? Manning? ect...

thx for the help in advance, i'll help you if i can. ;-D
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Postby J2thez929 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 7:13 pm

That sounds like a fun idea expect if you team get knocked out early. Then do u play with like 3 starters or something? lol. I see Manning and LT2 stepping it up. My other choice I would say Dillon. I think they will pound him every game till the Super Bowl
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Postby TTTBone » Thu Dec 30, 2004 7:48 pm

Post again after this weekend.
Some sleeper guys I really like on teams still fighting for that playoff spot.
As is, you gotta love Manning (and all three WR's), Ahman & Walker, Dillon, LT2.
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Postby number 2# pick » Thu Dec 30, 2004 8:33 pm

When picking your team you need to take into consideration if the team is gonna lose in rd 1 aka Vikings or the team that have first rd bye aka SD.

1 qb
2 rb
3 wr or te
1 kicker
1 def
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Postby winjr » Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:06 pm

J2thez929 wrote:That sounds like a fun idea expect if you team get knocked out early. Then do u play with like 3 starters or something? lol.


Our league has done this a few times, and it really is a lot of fun. Yeah, your picks drop out as their teams lose and go home, so the biggest consideration is concentrating on the two teams you think will make it to the Super Bowl. In our league, there is no set number of players that need to be selected at any given position. A few years ago, one of the guys in our league drafted almost nobody but kickers. He finished in the money!
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Postby The Lung » Sun Jan 02, 2005 11:04 pm

Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, January 8
4:30 p.m. on ABC -- St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
8 p.m. on ABC -- New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

Sunday, January 9
1 p.m. on CBS -- Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
4:30 p.m. on FOX -- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Minnesota vs. Green Bay is a no-brainer, it's basically a rematch of their week 16 matchup. Expect similar numbers from B. Favre, D. Culpepper, D. Driver, J. Walker, R. Moss, N.Burleson, J.Wiggins, B.Franks and A. Green. I might avoid the Vikings RB situation since M. Bennett will likely split carries evenly with O. Smith.

We should also see favorable fantasy numbers in the Rams/Seahawks matchup. Look for good results from M. Bulger, M. Hasselbeck, S. Alexander, I. Bruce, T. Holt, D. Jackson and both team's kickers. I would avoid both M. Faulk and S. Jackson.

In the Jets/Chargers matchup, I would probably only start C. Martin, the Jets kicker, and the Jets defense, and only if other options are not available. For San Diego, L. Tomlinson is a no-brainer, and A. Gates, D. Brees, and N. Kaeding are also good starts. The San Diego defense could be the best defensive play of them all.

You could pretty much start anyone, if healthy, on the Colts offense. For Denver, I would probably only use J. Plummer, R. Smith, A. Lelie, and J. Elam. I don't like the RBBC of R. Droughns and T. Bell, and I probably wouldn't use either defense.
(~);}

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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:31 pm

After playing playoff fantasy football based on total points for the past few seasons, I've come to realize that the key ingredient to winning is to first establish which teams will go far into the playoffs and then to evaluate talent versus games played.

I like to predict how many games each team will play versus how well I think each player will do in the games allotted. One key thing to note is that you don't necessarily have to pick up players from the teams you think will win the Super Bowl. A wild card team that makes it to the Conference Championship plays just as many games as a team with a first round bye that goes to the Super Bowl.

For instance here is the list of my playoff predictions and subsequent amount of games played, in order from safest to riskiest plays:

Round 1-
INDY over DEN (safer)
GB over MIN
SD over NY
STL over SEA (riskier)
----
Round 2-
PHI over STL
PITT over SD
NE over INDY
GB over ATL
-----
Conference-
PHI over GB
NE over PITT
-----
Super Bowl-
NE over PHI
-----

3 Games played-
PHI (safer)
NE
GB (riskier)
-----
2 Games played-
INDY
PITT
SD
STL
-----
1 Game played-
ATL (dark horse)
MIN
SEA
NY
DEN (no chance)

------
This gives you an idea of which players I would want to play based on my playoff predictions: predominantly PHI, NE, and GB players. In order to reduce the one and out risk factor, I make it a priority to not invest too heavily in any one team.
-----

Here are my starters in a 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 K, 2 D pool:
QB-
#1 McNabb/PHI- (3 Games)
#2 Manning/IND- (2 Games)
OUT- Favre/GB- could potentially lose against MIN or ATL, Manning will do more in less games
OUT- Vick/ATL- could goto the SB, could be one and done, Vick is not guaranteed good stats even if the Falcons win it all

RB-
#1 Dillon/NE- (3 games)
#2 Westbrook/PHI- (3 Games)
#3 Tomlinson/SD- (2 Games)
#4 Green/GB- (3 games)
OUT- Edge/IND- Already have too many INDY players, Manning over Favre dictates Green over Edge, LT makes the cut despite less predicted games played
OUT- Bettis/PITT- Staley is the x-factor, Bettis is not worth the risk even if the Steelers make the Bowl

WR-
#1 Walker/GB- (3 games)
#2 Harrison/INDY- (2 games)
#3 Burress/PITT (2 games)
#4 Holt/STL (2 games)
OUT- NE WRs/PHI WRs- having no WRs in my predicted SB is troubling, but I like taking fliers on WRs who I feel can have a couple big games
OUT- Gates/SD- Intriguing pick, but I don't see SD getting past NE or PITT and WRs are almost always safer when compared to TEs

D-
#1 Eagles
#2 NE
OUT- PITT- almost want to go with the super hot Pitt D over NE, but I have to stay true to my SB favorites in this category
OUT- INDY- Won't be able to run up the score after the first round, reduced turnover ratio as compared to regular season

K-
#1 Vinateri/NE
#2 Akers/PHI
OUT- Longwell/GB- Again going with my SB favorites at the kicker position, Longwell has a chance at 4 games but is too risky
OUT- Reed/PITT- Could surpise in a couple ball control/possession type games, I just don't see Pitt over NE though


FINAL LINEUP:
QB:
McNabb
Manning

RB:
Dillon
Westbrook
Tomlinson
Green

WR:
Walker
Harrison
Burress
Holt

K:
Vinateri
Akers

DEF:
Eagles
Patriots
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Postby number 2# pick » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:50 pm

thats what im talkin about nice post Kensat30. I'm gonna have to think hard and long but you make really good points,,,thx everyone.

;-D
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Postby The Lung » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:42 pm

Here are my thoughts on the divisional games this weekend.

Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 15
4:30 p.m. on CBS -- N.Y. Jets (11-6) at Pittsburgh (15-1)
8 p.m. on FOX -- St. Louis (9-8) at Atlanta (11-5)

Sunday, January 16
1 p.m. on FOX -- Minnesota (9-8) at Philadelphia (13-3)
4:30 p.m. on CBS -- Indianapolis (13-4) at New England (14-2)

Other than the defenses, there are very few good fantasy plays in the Jets/Steelers matchup; look to their week 14 contest for a good idea of what you can expect on Saturday. The Steelers D will shut down the Jets offense again, and many Pittsburgh players such as Duce Staley, Plaxico Burress and Ben Roethlisberger are coming off injury and don't make great starts against a good Jets defense anyway. I might start Jerome Bettis if I had no other options, but there are many better RB choices in other games, imo.

When St. Louis takes on the Falcons, don't let Isaac Bruce's poor showing in the Seattle game bother you, I would start him and Torry Holt with a lot of confidence. Marc Bulger and Jeff Wilkins are strong plays, and Kevin Curtis has looked great for the Rams the last two games and makes an excellent sleeper pick. Just like last week I would avoid the RBBC of Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson, as well as St. Louis tight ends and the Rams defense.

For Atlanta, Michael Vick and Alge Crumpler are no-brainers, and even though they are RBBC, I think both both Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett make strong starts. With St. Louis so turnover prone, the Atlanta defense is a good play. You could probably do better than Jay Feely at kicker, and I would avoid Atlanta WRs like the plague.

Minnesota likely won't tear up the Eagles defense like they did Green Bay, but Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, and Nate Burleson are still no-brainers, imo. Moe Williams is banged up, bumping Michael Bennett and Onterrio Smith up a small notch but probably not up to starting status. You could use TE Jermaine Wiggins in a pinch, but I would avoid the Vikings defense and kickers.

Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook should go off on the Vikings. Dorsey Levens may vulture a touchdown run, and without T.O. and no other good options in the passing game, tight end L.J. Smith will likely see some action and maybe a TD. The Vikings will likely turnover the ball several times with an interception or two along with some fumbles, so play the Eagles defense with confidence; I see Culpepper getting sacked a bunch, too. Only a desperate man would start an Eagles "receiver" so look elsewhere, like the Indy/Patriots game.

If good weather (dry and not too cold) the Colts/Pats game should be a fantasy bonanza. With the depleted Patriots secondary and Indy's porous defense, I can't think of a starter on either team's offense that I would fear using. Manning, James, Harrison, Wayne, Stokely, Clark, Pollard, Vandy, Brady, Dillon, Branch, Patten, Givens, Fauria, Graham, Vinatieri, the list goes on seemingly forever. I think there will likely be very few interceptions, sacks and fumbles for each side, so I might avoid both team's defenses, though.
(~);}

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Postby moochman » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:51 pm

Solid analysis Lung! ;-D ;-D ;-D
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