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Considering age as a factor when drafting players

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Considering age as a factor when drafting players

Postby gatorman1122 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 10:57 am

How many of you actually take into consideration age as a big factor when drafting a player?
Here's an example:
top 4 scoring WRs in my league this year:
1. Muhammad (will be 32 by next year's draft)
2. Harrison (will be 33)
3. TO (will be 32 in Dec)
4. Horn (will be 33)

Is age a factor mainly for RBs (faulk, c-mart, eddie george, etc.)? or do players in other positions suffer from old age (based on trends and history)?
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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 12:46 pm

Age is a factor for all positions, but RBs have the earliest decline because of the pounding they take. As a rough guideline, I would consider these ages to be the normal for a serious decline in skill or durability for each position:

RB- 31-32
WR- 35-36
QB- 38-40

Of course there are exceptions to these age limitations, but I would add a question mark to any player above these levels.
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Postby ljthockey » Mon Jan 03, 2005 2:36 pm

Of course I take in age and injury prone on drafting day but from the recievers you named I dont worry about them.
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Postby mtryanks12 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 3:10 pm

QB's and recievers can last for a while, btu the average life expectancy of a RB is 3.5 years
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Postby maddog60 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 3:12 pm

Age is a factor but not the primary one. I'll take Rod Smith before an unproven rookie WR, because I know Rod Smith can perform. Now, when you're judging guys that are on an even playing level (for instance I'd take Walker over Mussin) age can be the determining factor, but generally its rather low on my radar.

This year certainly proved age is not the end all be all. Dillon, Martin, Barber, Dunn, all these old dogs at RB, the most age-critical position in fantasy football, got it done this year and were definitely worth the spot you likely drafted them at. Whereas the younger RBs: Barlow, DD, Foster, Portis didn't live up to billing.
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Postby bagobonez » Mon Jan 03, 2005 8:53 pm

That's funny you should ask that. Youth was my theme when drafting this year, because the year before I had Gannon (ancient) Eddie George (ancient) Terrell Owens (no spring chicken) and Curtis Martin (old) and I had a terrible year.

This year I went for youth at all positions except for Joe HOrn, which happened to work out quite nicely. I had Brees, Shaun Alexander, Barlow (I later got Droughns) Chad Johnson and Eric Johnson and I posted a 10-4 record.

I think age is very important, especially at RB. I will never draft a RB over 30 again unless he's just a super stud and he's fallen alot further than he should have. You just can't trust em anymore. I bet next year Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin have down seasons compared to where they will be drafted, which will be high.
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Postby deluxe_247 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 9:12 pm

i do think about it, mostly with rbs...and about all players if its in a dynasty or keeper league. if i think 2 rbs that have about an equal skill and cant decide between them, i will take the younger guy. but if i can get a good older player for cheap, i wont hesitate to draft him (i drafted both martin and bruce this year)
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Postby PackerAttack84 » Mon Jan 03, 2005 9:24 pm

I take it into consideration in every draft. More if it's a keeper league and less if it's just a league for one season. I take the most consideration if it's a running back do to the probibility of them getting hurt and that they lose a step quicker then receivers and quarter backs. I wouldn't be worried about any of those receivers you listed.
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Postby gatorman1122 » Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:45 pm

Whereas the younger RBs: Barlow, DD, Foster, Portis didn't live up to billing.

Barlow-BUST (no argument here)

DD-had a slow start, finished VERY strong-1180 rush yds, 13 tds, 596 rec yds, 1 tds-these are pretty close to numbers that a No. 1 RB would put up IMO

Foster-Panthers RBs were cursed this year, not entirely his fault

Portis-low number of TDs, good yardage, not a bad year-1315 rush yds, 5 tds, 235 rec yds, 2 tds...not entirely his fault since Gibbs was too stubborn to let Ramsey start and make defenses respect the passing game, plus, the O-line took a huge hit with one of their players getting injured early on
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Re: Considering age as a factor when drafting players

Postby The Lung » Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:02 pm

gatorman1122 wrote:How many of you actually take into consideration age as a big factor when drafting a player?
Here's an example:
top 4 scoring WRs in my league this year:
1. Muhammad (will be 32 by next year's draft)
2. Harrison (will be 33)
3. TO (will be 32 in Dec)
4. Horn (will be 33)

Is age a factor mainly for RBs (faulk, c-mart, eddie george, etc.)? or do players in other positions suffer from old age (based on trends and history)?


Of the players you mentioned, age will not play a factor in my rankings next year. I'm concerned that T.O. has suffered a season-ending injury for two years straight, but he is too good not to have on you roster if you have the opportunity to draft him.

No age issues with Harrison or Horn in my book.

If he stays with Carolina, I think Muhammed is a "sucker pick" next year. When Steve Smith was heavily involved in the Carolina offense in 2002 and 2003, Mushy had an average of only 830 yards and three touchdowns on the year. People will rank him based on this year's stats but there's no way he's catching 90+ receptions for 1400+ yards and 16 TDs. Mushy is ranked lower on my lists, but not because of age.

Two receivers that I would derate because of age are Jimmy Smith and Rod Smith. Jimmy Smith will be entering his eleventh season next year and turns 36 next month. He had decent yardage this year (1172) but only scored six touchdowns. A new offensive coordinator in Jacksonville is not gonna convince me to draft Jimmy early; only if he is available in late rounds would I think about taking him.

Rod Smith will also be entering his eleventh season and turns 35 in May. He had similar numbers to Jimmy (1144 yards, 7 TDs) but I think A. Lelie, D. Watts and the Denver TEs (Putzier, Hape) will emerge next year. I remember that game against Atlanta earlier this season where Rod had 208 yards and an 80 yard touchdown catch, and in the fourth quarter of that game he looked simply exhausted.
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