Im trying to have a discussion with my friends in the money league Im in. I won this year with a 9-4 record and won in the playoffs....Look at my lineup...the only really dominant player is Alexander....in fact ...the #1 and 2 guys were 4th and 5th in points......Anyway.....another wager has been placed that there is no way that Ill win again with a QB like Green....and that Manning will put up bigger numbers (his keeper) and he's guarenteed that he'll win......I think Manning's numbers will slip a bit......what do you think about the situation???
I don't think there's anyway that he gets these numbers next year. Right now I have him for about 4,000 yards and 35-40 TD's. Still the #1 QB but won't be have numbers like he did this year.
i don't know why everyone thinks it is a foregone conlcusion that he won't.
The guy is clearly an awesome qb. The team (or at least the offense) is going to basically be the same.
He is in his prime, and he has obviosuly mastered the position etc. There was a new rule that the league is not backing down from.
After all, marino had another 40 td season.
I'd say if he gets 40 or so, he would be approaching 45.
I know the argument goes both ways on qb's here -- but the man clearly is a marjor stud, the likes of which don't come around too often. Id on't see why he can't keep up similar (if not AS good) production for a couple of years.
i think that defences will use the offseason to try to figure out what it is that he is doing. I think they will focus more on overcoming his o-line and put more pressure on him. I think he will have a good season, but nowhere near what he has done thus far. Wait and see as to what the NE D throws at him if/when they play.
How is my typing? Call 1-555-382-5968 Many posters could benefit from this.
No way. The Indy offense will take a major blow once they lose Edge. I can still see Peyton putting up solid numbers, basically what Mustangs said, around 4000 yds and 35-40 tds, but not enough to justify where some are taking him, in the top 5.
South Park Cows wrote:No way. The Indy offense will take a major blow once they lose Edge. I can still see Peyton putting up solid numbers, basically what Mustangs said, around 4000 yds and 35-40 tds, but not enough to justify where some are taking him, in the top 5.
I thought Indy can Franchise edge and keep him for another year.
I tell you what, I fail to see how if manning does go for 4k and say 36-40 td's how you could NOT take him in the first round. what a cornerstone to build your team around. basically he was significantly better than culpepper and mcnabb and those two (and brees) were significantly better than the rest.
I know that people like to poitn out statiscial variation. But lets say manning performance busts and only gets 30 td's next year. I still like the peace of mind that scenario offers.
I understand how scarcity effects this debate. But realisitclally. Look at how many 1st to 2nd round rb busts there truly were. I think there will be enough solid rb talent left that if you take manning in the back half of round one, you should be able to get your backs. I think his "bad" year is still preferable to that of many others -- even when you facotr in value based drafting and positional scarcity.
I wouldn't take him over preist, alexander those types of backs. but after say the firts five or six? definitely.
Teams, may stop him or scheme against him etc. But that is easier said than done to begin with. And whatever happens in the playoffs isn't relevant anyway, as the colts don't have to play the pats/steelers everyweek next year anyway.
I persoanlly might shy away depending on the offseason, as they play pitt, baltimore, san diego, new england and jacksonville twice next year.
But all things considered, I think manning is a "safe" pick if there is such a thing -- i.e. he isnt' going to lsoe it for you like fred taylor, barlow or someone like that did this year.
but you can't look back. His worth next year is independent of his worth this year in some respects.
say he gets 35-40. he won't approach 50 and that is a big drop off. But still relative to the rest of the possible qb's and the picks in general, an almost sure thing 35 td's is an enitcing prospect.
like I said its no contest to take preist, alexander LT2, probably green etc. But after that, It would be hard to pass up the chance to have manning, then take second tier backs with your next two picks. I don't think it qwould be that unwise, considering that you will have some promotions to first round next year in all possiblity, mcgahee and depending on st. louis -- jackson. you will have a devalued mcallister, fred taylor. julius jones is till out there, westbrook. what to do with martin, barber? chris brown? you get my drift. you could still have someone good if you pick manning. I realize that I digressed, I just think he is a solid back half first round pick, whether he drops off or not. he is stud qb who clearly entered his prime.
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by JimmyChoi » Mon Jan 03, 2005 2:17 pm 
