He'll drop. It's almost inevitable that he will produce less next year, just as it was almost inevitable that Priest Holmes wouldn't put up as many TDs this year. Teams adapt, defenses scheme differently, and I think especially after the San Diego and Baltimore games you saw new schemes that were fairly effective at containing Manning.
Next year, teams will use models like those two teams did and Manning won't get as big of numbers. He's always going to be a lock for 4k and 30-40 TDs, and with the massive upheavel in the RB position, he's a steal anywhere in the latter half of the 1st round.
but you can't look back. His worth next year is independent of his worth this year in some respects.
say he gets 35-40. he won't approach 50 and that is a big drop off. But still relative to the rest of the possible qb's and the picks in general, an almost sure thing 35 td's is an enitcing prospect.
like I said its no contest to take preist, alexander LT2, probably green etc. But after that, It would be hard to pass up the chance to have manning, then take second tier backs with your next two picks. I don't think it qwould be that unwise, considering that you will have some promotions to first round next year in all possiblity, mcgahee and depending on st. louis -- jackson. you will have a devalued mcallister, fred taylor. julius jones is till out there, westbrook. what to do with martin, barber? chris brown? you get my drift. you could still have someone good if you pick manning. I realize that I digressed, I just think he is a solid back half first round pick, whether he drops off or not. he is stud qb who clearly entered his prime.
I will take Culpepper over manning next year. Manning will still be great, but I still feel that certain things have to happen to reach 49 Td's. You have to play bad defenses, and your defense has to be bad. I still believe their were alot of very short Td's this year that will more than likely go to Edge next year when the record is not a priorty like it was for the second half of the season.
JimmyChoi wrote:another wager has been placed that there is no way that Ill win again with a QB like Green....and that Manning will put up bigger numbers (his keeper) and he's guarenteed that he'll win......
It's not the total he puts up, it's not the average he puts up. It's the standard deviation. Just like any other fantasy player. If Manning throws 100 td's in one game - it's still only one win. Next year's schedule for Indy has them playing Pittsburg and Cleveland at home and Baltimore and New England on the road. Thats four games where his numbers may be down.
If your supporting cast for your QB is better than his - you stand as good a chance as he does.