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So pretty much everyone is writing the 15-1 Steelers off...

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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jan 12, 2005 1:38 am

Recent Super Bowl Champions:

YEAR TM O D
---------------------------------
2003 nwe 12 1
2002 tam 18 1
2001 nwe 6 6
2000 bal 15 1
1999 stl 1 4
1998 den 2 8
1997 den 1 7
1996 gnb 1 1
1995 dal 3 3
1994 sfo 1 6
1993 dal 2 2
1992 dal 2 5
1991 was 1 2
1990 nyg 15 1
1989 sfo 1 3
1988 sfo 7 8
1987 was 4 6
1986 nyg 8 2
1985 chi 2 1
1984 sfo 2 1
1983 la 3 13 (Raiders)


Streaks are made to be broken, but I see a definite trend here: No defenses ranked outside the top8 have won the Super Bowl in this last how many years? Look back to 1983 when the Los Angeles Raiders won it all. The Raiders gave up no more than 14 points in any game and only 33 total points during the 1983 playoffs. Note: the Colt's were still located in Baltimore at the time. Fast forward to 2005, 22 years later. Indianapolis has the top rated offense in the league, but their defense is not even in the same stratosphere as their upcoming opponents....

Fact: It's a 100% certainty that Colt's will have to face at least two top4 defensive teams in the league en route to the Super Bowl title.

Fact: three of the four remaining teams in the AFC playoffs are top4 defenses, exception: Colts.

Did I mention that the heavily favored contender in the NFC is a top4 defense as well? Looks pretty unlikely in my eyes that the "defense wins championships" trend will be proven wrong this year....

NE- #2
Pitt/NYJ- #1/#4
Phi- #2


----------
AFC:
----------

Steelers (11th offense, <b>1st defense</b>)
Patriots (4th offense, <b>2nd defense</b>)
Colts (1st offense, 19th defense)
Chargers (3rd offense, 11th defense) ELIMINATED
Broncos (9th offense, 9th defense) ELIMINATED
Jets (17th offense, <b>4th defense</b>)

----------
NFC:
----------

Eagles (8th offense, <b>2nd defense</b>)
Falcons (16th offense, 14th defense)
Packers (5th offense, 23th defense) ELIMINATED
Seahawks (12th offense, 22nd defense) ELIMINATED
Rams (19th offense, 25th defense)
Vikings (6th offense, 26th defense)
Last edited by Kensat30 on Wed Jan 12, 2005 2:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Nilmerf » Wed Jan 12, 2005 2:48 am

Those are some amazing findings, kensat.. never really realized that before. It really proves the old adage right, defense wins championships. The Colts won't be contenders until their defense shapes up.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jan 12, 2005 4:53 am

Thanks for the time put in for those stats, Kensat. ;-D

What stat was used to base the rank of each defense? I looked at the NFL.com stats for total defense, and they have NE at 9th and Philly 10th...I thought that's how defenses were normally ranked.

Oh, I see it here - Scoring Defense. That's how this was done. :-?

This isn't to demean the defense theory, but also note how 13 of those 21 Super Bowl winning teams had a top 3 scoring offense complimenting the good defense. So it appears to me that you normally (up until the last few years) need the most balanced team on both sides of the ball to win the Super Bowl. This makes perfect sense to me.

Presently that team would be the Patriots... :-)
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Postby Transmogrifier » Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:30 am

Kensat30 wrote:Recent Super Bowl Champions:

YEAR TM O D
---------------------------------
2003 nwe 12 1
2002 tam 18 1
2001 nwe 6 6
2000 bal 15 1
1999 stl 1 4
1998 den 2 8
1997 den 1 7
1996 gnb 1 1
1995 dal 3 3
1994 sfo 1 6
1993 dal 2 2
1992 dal 2 5
1991 was 1 2
1990 nyg 15 1
1989 sfo 1 3
1988 sfo 7 8
1987 was 4 6
1986 nyg 8 2
1985 chi 2 1
1984 sfo 2 1
1983 la 3 13 (Raiders)



You're only looking at one trend. Yes, those defensive stats are amazing. But if you remove the outliers above--even NE with the 12th ranked offense in 2003--all of the above teams had one of the top eight offenses. And there was only one 8th-best offense and one 7th best offense.

Six of the winners had the top offense. Five of the winners had the second best offense. And two had the third best offense.

I think balance is the key here.
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Postby davus » Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:00 am

Mercer Boy wrote:Thanks for the time put in for those stats, Kensat. thumbs.gif

What stat was used to base the rank of each defense? I looked at the NFL.com stats for total defense, and they have NE at 9th and Philly 10th...I thought that's how defenses were normally ranked.

Oh, I see it here - Scoring Defense. That's how this was done. :-?

This isn't to demean the defense theory, but also note how 13 of those 21 Super Bowl winning teams had a top 3 scoring offense complimenting the good defense. So it appears to me that you normally (up until the last few years) need the most balanced team on both sides of the ball to win the Super Bowl. This makes perfect sense to me.

Presently that team would be the Patriots... :-)



I don't know how you figure that the Pats are more balanced than the Steelers. THat's not what the stats say.

The Steelers are just as balanced as the Pats AND they are a better team. B-)
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Postby davus » Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:22 am

Transmogrifier wrote:Well look at that. ESPN has some stats. I know you have yours, but I tend to agree with these:
Defense wins Championships:

Theory popularized by: Football coaches, analysts and writers since the age of Rockne; the 2000 Baltimore Ravens; the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The numbers (examining the 52 Super Bowl teams since 1978, which is the advent of the 16-game schedule and more liberal passing rules)

Steelers defense
The Steelers' D allowed the fewest yards and points this season.

Ranked in regular-season top 5 in fewest yards allowed: 24 of 52 Super Bowl teams
Ranked in regular-season top 10 in fewest yards allowed: 35 of 52 Super Bowl teams

Ranked in regular-season top 5 in most yards gained: 24 of 52 Super Bowl teams
Ranked in regular-season top 10 in most yards gained: 38 of 52 Super Bowl teams

When's the last time you heard an analyst say, "Offense wins championships!" Fact is, a great defense is no more important than a great offense in reaching the Super Bowl. Taking it a step further, 10 teams which led the NFL in total yards reached the Super Bowl while five teams which led in fewest yards reached the Super Bowl.

Of the 12 playoff teams this season, five were in the top 10 in defense while nine were in the top 10 in offense.




http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... one/050111


Haha....the funny thing about this article is that if you look at the end of it, the author predicts the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. ;-D
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Postby black_hawk8888 » Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:32 am

OK - I had to get my $.02 in here. I realize that on paper the Steelers are a tremendous team. They are also a very physical team that is playing with confidence and beat the other great teams in the NFL this year. I will list my doubts in order of importance:

1. Belicheck vs. Cowher. End of discussion.

2. The Patriots have an experienced QB as do the Colts

3. The Steelers margin of victory was very slim for the last half of the season. They barely beat Eli for crying out loud. Many of their games came down to the 4th quarter while NE and IND were blowing people away.

4. The Steelers don't look dominant - all their games are close and that is the kiss of death against a Manning or a Brady.

Mark my words: The winner of the Colts-Pats game will beat the Steelers. They look vulnerable and cannot put people away which will kill them against the elite teams in the playoffs.
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Postby petedog9 » Wed Jan 12, 2005 2:31 pm

The steelers "barely" beat Eli the same week that New England LOST to freaking Miami!!!! The main difference is Pittsburgh won and the Pats Lost. I am not concerned with the Pats at all because they will not get by the Colts. Lets see Troy Brown vs Marvin Harrison...... Colts by 14........
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Postby mtryanks12 » Wed Jan 12, 2005 4:39 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Recent Super Bowl Champions:

YEAR TM O D
---------------------------------
2003 nwe 12 1
2002 tam 18 1
2001 nwe 6 6
2000 bal 15 1
1999 stl 1 4
1998 den 2 8
1997 den 1 7
1996 gnb 1 1
1995 dal 3 3
1994 sfo 1 6
1993 dal 2 2
1992 dal 2 5
1991 was 1 2
1990 nyg 15 1
1989 sfo 1 3
1988 sfo 7 8
1987 was 4 6
1986 nyg 8 2
1985 chi 2 1
1984 sfo 2 1
1983 la 3 13 (Raiders)



another reason we should have tables as a function on the boards.
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Postby OwenTheBlonde » Wed Jan 12, 2005 4:51 pm

I'm not slighting the Steelers either but they have a lot to prove. They have a lack of playoff experience for pretty much the whole team with a rookie QB and that matters. I think Steelers fans hope they play the Pats because if they play the Colts and the Steeler pass rush can't get to Manning then he will have a field day with a secondary that hasn't improved a lot over last year.
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