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So pretty much everyone is writing the 15-1 Steelers off...

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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:04 pm

davus wrote:I don't know how you figure that the Pats are more balanced than the Steelers. THat's not what the stats say.

The Steelers are just as balanced as the Pats AND they are a better team. B-)


I'm not trying to create problems, but that IS what the stats say. Let's see the ranks that Az put up...

NE - 4th offense, 2nd defense
PIT - 11th offense, 1st defense

What combination of 11 and 1 beats 4 and 2...other than cancelling ones? :-? ;-)

Both teams are solid. I have nothing against either one. Being that I live in PA I suppose I should want the Steelers to win anyway. I just want a good game, and I think any combination of the four remaining AFC teams would make a good AFC championship.
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Postby deluxe_247 » Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:28 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:
davus wrote:I don't know how you figure that the Pats are more balanced than the Steelers. THat's not what the stats say.

The Steelers are just as balanced as the Pats AND they are a better team. B-)


I'm not trying to create problems, but that IS what the stats say. Let's see the ranks that Az put up...

NE - 4th offense, 2nd defense
PIT - 11th offense, 1st defense

What combination of 11 and 1 beats 4 and 2...other than cancelling ones? :-? ;-)

Both teams are solid. I have nothing against either one. Being that I live in PA I suppose I should want the Steelers to win anyway. I just want a good game, and I think any combination of the four remaining AFC teams would make a good AFC championship.


gotta agree with mercer here :-D
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Postby davus » Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:46 pm

deluxe_247 wrote:
Mercer Boy wrote:
davus wrote:I don't know how you figure that the Pats are more balanced than the Steelers. THat's not what the stats say.

The Steelers are just as balanced as the Pats AND they are a better team. B-)


I'm not trying to create problems, but that IS what the stats say. Let's see the ranks that Az put up...

NE - 4th offense, 2nd defense
PIT - 11th offense, 1st defense

What combination of 11 and 1 beats 4 and 2...other than cancelling ones? :-? ;-)

Both teams are solid. I have nothing against either one. Being that I live in PA I suppose I should want the Steelers to win anyway. I just want a good game, and I think any combination of the four remaining AFC teams would make a good AFC championship.


gotta agree with mercer here :-D


I gotta disagree. You must be using points for and against which I think is much less accurate of a way to figure strength than yards per game, but you also have to consider the fact that by the very virtue of having a great D, some teams will not need to move the ball as much on offense to win games, yet they still may be very capable of moving the ball. (Case in point Steelers are one of the worst passing teams in the league, right? WRONG! Yards per attempt is a great way to look at the overall quality of the passing game. Steelers were 27th in passing yards per game, yet they were 3RD in yards per attempt)

Looking at it that way you have in yards per game

Steelers 1st D, 16th O
Patriots 9th D, 7th O

Keep in mind that the Steelers defense this year was just light years ahead of the Patriots and kept the offense off the field so that 16th rated offense is misleading and skewed simply by virtue of the incredible defense. To put it into perspective, the difference between the amount of yards given up per game by the Steelers compared with the Pats is equivalent to the the difference between the Pats and the Titans (conservatively) which were ranked like 26th. That is just a huge difference. 62.4 yards per game separating them.

The Steelers also had the #2 rushing attack, compared to the Pats' #7. Passing game goes to that Pats, they are ranked 11th vs. the Steelers 27th as mentioned before. You would be foolish to assume that the Pats passing game is leaps and bounds better than the Steelers because the simple truth is that the Steelers just have not needed to pass the ball much, but when they have passed, they have been very efficient doing so. In fact, if you extrapolate out by attempts the Steelers passing game, you will find that they have a BETTER passing game than the Pats.

Yards per attempt: Steelers 7.59; Pats 7.40, Colts 8.78.

The Patriots are not the most balanced team this year. No. I'd make the case that the Steelers are the most balanced and simply the best overall team in the playoffs. Unfortunately even that won't guarantee a Super Bowl for them. They have to play 110%.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jan 12, 2005 11:16 pm

Good stuff here. I am glad the stats were expanded.

I only stated that the Pats were more balanced by the stats shown (scoring defense only). I didn't mean to say that this alone was the only stat that mattered...that would be foolish.

As I originally said, I thought yards per game was the way they ranked offenses and defenses...the aggregate numbers are more even this way, but you still have to admit...9th and 7th is still better than 1st and 16th. :-)
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Postby davus » Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:10 am

Mercer Boy wrote:Good stuff here. I am glad the stats were expanded.

I only stated that the Pats were more balanced by the stats shown (scoring defense only). I didn't mean to say that this alone was the only stat that mattered...that would be foolish.

As I originally said, I thought yards per game was the way they ranked offenses and defenses...the aggregate numbers are more even this way, but you still have to admit...9th and 7th is still better than 1st and 16th. :-)


Actually I think that's about even...but I don't believe that the Steelers are merely the 16th best offense. If the Steelers defense was giving up a lot more yards and points every game, I think the offense could easily be putting up much gaudier numbers. :-b
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Postby petedog9 » Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:33 pm

Offensive and defensive stats have ALOT to do with one another. If your defense is so dominate and you are 3 and outing the opponent. On offense, you are not gonna be airing it out with a quick strike attack. Your goal is to run the ball down your opponents throat and control the clock and keep your opponents offense off of the field. This style of play will not put up gaudy stats on offense but will help your numbers on defense. The Colts offense puts up alot more yards because their defense gives up alot more yards and they tend to be in "shootout" style games. Just a different game plan. Thats all. I personally look at who wins the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Who is more physical and can dictate how a game is played. The rest is a crapshoot. By far the most dominate , physical team is the Steelers...




Stats are merely a by product of game style.Alot of teams can put up big stats but that doesnt make them a great team. Not in real life anyway, maybe in fantasy tho......

I am amazed this thread is still going on page 6....LOL
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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:04 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:Good stuff here. I am glad the stats were expanded.

I only stated that the Pats were more balanced by the stats shown (scoring defense only). I didn't mean to say that this alone was the only stat that mattered...that would be foolish.

As I originally said, I thought yards per game was the way they ranked offenses and defenses...the aggregate numbers are more even this way, but you still have to admit...9th and 7th is still better than 1st and 16th. :-)


Scoring offense and defense are the true stats you should look at gauging a team offensively and defensively. This takes into account the affect of special teams (field position on offense and defense), turnovers, and other intangibles of the game. What if a team gives up very few yardage simply because their team gives up the ball in their own territory a lot. Simply put, the game is decided on who has the most points at the end of the 4th quarter. Take the Eagles for instance, they give up a ton of yards, but look at their winning percentage. A bend but don't break style of defense can be very effective....


Back on topic: If you look at the trend in the last few years versus previous years, balance is not the key to winning NFL Super Bowls anymore.... Dominating #1 Defenses make up for the lack of a powerful offense as was the case in 3 of the last 5 SBs. Home Field advantage plays a huge role as well.

Despite New England's two Super Bowl victories in the last 3 years, I think Pittsburgh has a very good chance at taking them down at home. One turnover is the difference in this game, I just see Pittsburgh making the vital mistake due to lack of experience...

<b>2003 nwe 12 1</b>
<b>2002 tam 18 1</b>
2001 nwe 6 6
<b>2000 bal 15 1</b>
1999 stl 1 4
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Postby eaglesrule » Tue Jan 18, 2005 9:31 am

"Take the Eagles for instance, they give up a ton of yards, but look at their winning percentage. A bend but don't break style of defense can be very effective....
"

true, if you look at the scorign per game they allowed.

although personally I think their philsophy isn't so much "bend byut don't break" in and of itself, but sacrifice yards between the 30s for the chance at turnovers, buckle down in the red zone, and look to make the other team on dimensional by having a good offense.
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