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Roy Williams next year with Rogers back???

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Postby Atog » Thu Jan 13, 2005 10:03 am

Joey will not be cut. They have it on the Lion's site that they're not even considering it.
I personally think that having another skilled reciever will allow the Lions to do better, and improve Roy's numbers overall.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jan 13, 2005 11:51 am

I see a modest improvement in Roy's yardage and catches in 2005 as he improves his route running and adjusts more to the speed of the NFL game. But, I also forsee little to no improvement in his touchdown totals if and when Rogers can come back fully healthy.

In 2004, Roy was basically the #1 WR on the team from the start of the season. In addition to that, he was really the only viable option for several weeks of the season when Hakim went down. In addition to that, there was virtually no impact of a 3rd WR! Pretty much an ideal situation for a rookie WR to step into. If he hadn't been injured for a modest chunk of time, I could easily see Roy being the most productive rookie WR ahead of Clayton.

In fact, just look at all the rookie WRs who produced this year, each team had a clear absence of a 3rd WR threat and no true stud across from them as the #1 WR. Several rookies (Clayton, Fitzgerald, Roy) WERE the #1 WRs on their teams for a big portion of the season. Things are looking ripe for Roy to improve on his 2004 totals next year right? Not necessarily....Williams could be in a drastically changed situation as soon as week 1 next year as Rogers steps back into the #1, #1a, or #2 role and Hakim moves back into his intended position as the #3 WR on the Lion's offense.

Comparing their numbers, I see a striking similarity between Rogers and Roy, furthering my belief that the catches and targets will be fairly evenly distributed between the two next year. Roy was injured for a large part of the 2004 season, so it's pretty safe to say that his per game numbers could have been a lot higher had he stayed healthy throughout.

Rogers- 5 games/58 targets(11.6 per)/22 rec(37.9%,4.4per) 5 TD
Roy- 14 games/118 targets(8.2per)/54 rec(45.8%,3.9per) 8 TD

Rogers had the highest target per game ratio in 2003 only behind Torry Holt in his career year. Not to mention that his catches to touchdown ratio was simply amazing. The 25% touchdown ratio will be virtually impossible to repeat (don't tell that to Randy Moss), but it just shows the potential for how good he could be.

How much of Rogers success you attribute to being the only viable target in Detroit for that year and how much of that comes from athletic talent/potential is up for debate. The same could be said for Roy Williams in 2004. To me, it's undeniable that Rogers is an effective redzone weapon from watching the few games that he did play. And it's also undeniable that Roy Williams is one of the premier playmaking WRs in the league.

Either one of these guys could be the leader on the team in targets, receptions, touchdowns, touchdown celebrations, etc. It's really hard to say who is going to emerge as the best option in Detroit. I would limit both of their ceilings to the top15 or so and would hesitate to draft either player before the early-middle rounds of the draft because of this.

Oh yeah, did I mention that the Lion's OC retired after this season and basically said Harrington was not the answer at QB in Detroit.... Detroit WRs look like a gamble in 2005, I will probably end up drafting the WR with the lower ADP, most likely Charles Rogers.

Just like I drafted the Green Bay WR with the lower ADP in 2004: Donald Driver.... You tell me which was better value, Javon Walker in the 5th round or Driver in the 9th. I'm not saying Charles and Roy will mirror their production, in fact I don't believe either of them will produce at the same level as Driver or Walker, but the similarities in situation are definitely there.
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Postby TTTBone » Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:42 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:Rogers can be a stud, if he plays. This duo would be unstoppable, an absolute nightmare for the secondaries of the NFC North, who already have a lot to handle with Moss, Walker, Burleson, and Driver.

I think his numbers will be similar to this year, with Rogers posting 1000 and 7 if he plays the whole season.

Gotta agree with CCheese. That Kitties offense could be pretty dominating with KJ, Roy and Rogers. Plus they probably will sport a better D than either GB or Minny.
However, there is that nagging Joey question...
Personally (as I'm sure you Lions fans know), I've always been a detractor of Harrington, even prior to his drafting. However with the limited QB options, I would like to see what Joey can do with a fully loaded offense, and maybe see the Kitties grab a QB third round or so. Kitties have been down for a while, but I really like their chances next year. Harrington is the big offensive question-mark, but as much as I've ripped on the guy, he probably deserves one more chance (i.e. Brees).
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Postby moochman » Fri Jan 14, 2005 2:47 am

I am ignoring the return of Rogers and any impact it would have. Burn me once...but broken collar bones 2 years in a row? Na, gotta show me. Roy, however, is a different story. The thing to remember is that he never came close to 100% after hurting his ankle and got progressively worse the last three weeks.

He showed a desire to play through pain that makes me think he won't be taking games off in the future. And you can't deny his talent. Add to that the even though he most likely will still suck, Bloey Scarrington should throw the ball down field more next season. Mariucci has hinted at needing to open up the offense and won't be calling plays anymore. I see a big season for Roy next year, and if Rogers is able to play it could be even better. So Roy = stud
Rogers= sleeper

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Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jan 14, 2005 5:13 am

Wow, great thoughts guys. Thanks for all the insight. This will definitely help me make my decision.
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