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Keeper League Strategy

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Keeper League Strategy

Postby aussieboy » Sat Jan 15, 2005 10:07 am

I participated in my first Keeper League this year, KingGhidora's brainchild that is the MIKL.

Basically we are allowed to keep any 3 players from our roster to carry into next season.

My question to the cafe is how do you choose which 3 players to keep? Do you simply keep the best 3 players on your roster? Do you invariably keep your 2RB? Do you try and anticipate which players other teams will keep and then make your decisions based on that?

Here is my roster from this season which finished 2nd.

QB-Donovan Mcnabb
WR-Andre Johnson
WR-Jerry Porter
WR-Justin Mccariens
RB-Clinton Portis
RB-Chris Brown
TE-Antonio Gates
K-Elam
DEF-Baltimore

The bench players are irrelevant.

Now if I was to pick my best 3 players based on performance this year, id probably go with Mcnabb, Portis and Gates. However not selecting 2 RB may prove to be suicide, esp if every other team in the league does choose to keep their 2 RB.

Another strategy may be to pretend you were in a real draft and then decide which 3 players you would select in the first 3 rounds. If that were the case most people would agree that Portis, Brown and Mcnabb are probably the 3 to take.

Its tough to leave out Gates, especially to those that are advocates of the Value Based Draft system, which basically adjusts value based on positional scarcity. I wonder though if taking an elite TE is as worthwhile as it may have been in previous years, since this season has seen a number of TE having excellent years.

Andre Johnson is another player that may be tough to leave out. He had a excellent first half of the season before his performances tapered off in line to that of his QB. I strongly believe he could have a monster year next year, it will be his 3rd year afterall.

So how do you guys pick your keepers? what sort of strategies do you use?

Thanks in advance for you advice.
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Postby CC » Sat Jan 15, 2005 10:53 am

I do it by the players that are least likely to be there when I pick again. If I like Gates over Chris Brown, I would still keep Chris Brown, because I have a better chance of getting Gates back by the time I make my first pick.
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Postby Flux » Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:01 am

However not selecting 2 RB may prove to be suicide, esp if every other team in the league does choose to keep their 2 RB.


If everyone else is keeping their #2 RB, then nobody would draft a RB in the first couple rounds (generally speaking).

Choosing keepers can be very tough sometimes. I try to factor in everything you mentioned. I look to see who my top players are, try and predict who is going to be kept on which team so I will have a better understanding of who I potentially could get back w/ my 1st pick, and figure out where these players would normally go in a redraft.

If you want an easy answer keep 2 RBs and a WR or QB.

But in your situation Im not sold on Brown at all and think of him as more of a headache than anything else. McNabb and Portis are sure things, but I cant really say who I would keep as a #3 keeper w/o knowing everyones lineups and how they drafted and knowing things said during the season that could be clues to who your competition likes.

I would still probably keep Brown for the reason CC mentioned, but Gates is very close, and if the Chargers franchise Brees, I think it would be nearly impossible not to keep Gates.
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Postby mtryanks12 » Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:15 pm

Brown has the potential to rack up 100 yards in the first half of a game when he's healthy.

Gates is still young into his NFL career, and may even be bigger next year.

McNabb will remain a top 5 QB for the rest of his career, most likely.





Those are yourr three picks. I would choose to keep BAL, but sleeper defenses are common, think of Buffalo, and you could end up picking an FA that ends up in the top 5, so I'd let them go.
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Postby HskrPwr13 » Mon Jan 17, 2005 8:53 pm

The above posts are all great advise. What I would add would be to look at the positions and see how many "studs" would still be available for pickup. Without knowing the rules of your league, I would suggest keeping McNabb, Porits, and Brown. What are the chances that you'll be able to replace these 2 backs with the equal or better quality through the draft? Other than Culpepper or Manning, which neither will probably be available, who would you pick up that's better? I still believe WRs are the deepest position and most fickle. There will always be someone to pick up through draft or waivers. Gates is the wildcard of the bunch. Clearly you cant improve on the numbers, but he isnt like Gonzales where he's put big numbers year after year. Because most others wont franchise their TEs, I believe you could potentially get him back or grab another perfoming TE like Witten, Winslow, Miller (rookie), or another up-and-comer like an LJ Smith.
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Postby awwchrist » Mon Jan 17, 2005 8:59 pm

Well if you're really sold on Gates, considering he's only had one year of stardom, and a possible changing of the guard at QB for the chargers.

By all means.
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Postby sparkky » Mon Jan 17, 2005 10:12 pm

Like mentioned above, McNabb and Portis make the cut for sure. That leaves Brown and Gates. I'm pretty much a RB guy. Check out the other rosters and see who is likely to cut a RB you like. What pick do you have next year? How many NFL teams will draft rookie RB's that have a GOOD chance to start? The number of cuts plus starting rookies will tell you about how deep the early Rb's will go compared to your pick.
But be careful this year because there is a pretty good group of FA or trade block RB's that could change the "rookie starting" numbers.
Jordan, Blaylock/L. Johnson, Henry come to mind.
It would be hard to cut Gates, but I think I would unless you are SURE you can replace Brown with your first pick.
Good luck!!
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Postby OwenTheBlonde » Tue Jan 18, 2005 9:25 am

I'll echo the "keep Brown unless you are sure to get a good #2 back with your #1 pick" sentiment. If you can then keep Gates.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:09 am

This one's easy. Keep Elam, Porter, Mccarreins and I'll draft the other guys.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:18 am

sparkky wrote:Jordan, Blaylock/L. Johnson, Henry come to mind.


Henry won't be available ;)
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