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How much trouble are you in if you draft Priest w/o LJ?

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How much trouble are you in if you draft Priest w/o LJ?

Postby Azrael » Wed Jan 19, 2005 11:51 pm

I considered the prospect of drafting Holmes next year and thought I could be in some big trouble if I don't get LJ. And not to mention that would be an extremely expensive handcuff. Figure 6th round, possibly 5th, if you want to be sure you get him. With the potential stud power that guy can put into a lineup if Holmes goes down, you can be sure someone is taking him fairly early. Wonder how far this will make Holmes fall.
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Postby Justifiable_Sin » Thu Jan 20, 2005 6:12 am

if you are drafting with the same group of "Joes" ....as in a private league like myself... I might consider going back to the 2004 draft and seeing how early McGahee went last year....

....perhaps take notice to how Bennett and O.Smith were drafted as well (and other examples that come to mind)

Use last years draft as a foundation towards your own personal mock regarding how Johnson may be drafted this year. Fine tune your mock as needed up until the draft.

Develope a "target" round ...that would represent the highest round you could justify handcuffing Johnson in without disrupting an otherwise solid draft strategy....and stick to it.

If you do indeed draft Holmes and someone does nab Johnson before you can ....then I would suggest lying low for at least 4-5 weeks ....in the hopes that Johnson only collects dust on this other teams bench.... then incorporate Larry in a multiplayer trade pitch.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:52 am

I think you may need to overvalue LJ this year. It's going to be pretty common knowledge this is Priest's last year under contract, so he could be done.

Especially if it's a keeper league. He would be insurance this year, and your stud next year.

If someone else gets him, I would hope for him to be in a spot where he would have to drop him due to his own players getting injured or whatever..

If it's a one year league, I wouldn't overvalue him as much. Priest should still be the man there this year.

I still would take a chance on Priest very early in the draft. When healthy no one can match his output at his position. He still had 15 tds and missed several weeks. In one of my league's where I crunch the numbers, he still had the 2nd highest total of points for RBs in games where they started.

I can see concerns about not taking him #1 overall, but I sure wouldn't let him drop below #3 at the latest.

As for LJ I think in a keeper league, he could go as high as the 3rd rd or 4th rd. In a one year league, I would think that goes down a couple rounds. Just since he is not the starter. League size matters of course too...
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Postby moochman » Thu Jan 20, 2005 10:20 am

I had the Priest in one of my leagues this season and someoen else stole my handcuff. In first place when the big fella went down, I finished in last. I was in a very competitive 12 team league, but the value of a Priest Handcuff was shown.

That it will cost an upper mid-round pick for Johnson and Holmes injury/age issue, plus murmurs of him splitting the load more, makes me think that he won't be drafted as religiously as in the past.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:15 am

I actually got Blaylock off of waivers when Priest went down. No one took LJ.

When LJ became the guy there when Blaylock went down, it was too late for me. No more FA could be picked up. So I was stuck with him and Priest on my roster and being hurt, and I had to start Jackson on a week he didn't play, and then he saved me with 140 yds and a TD in the championship.

But I know I escaped with a win...
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Postby kevinoc81 » Thu Jan 20, 2005 12:08 pm

It all depends if Priest gets hurt. If he stays healthy all year you'll have no problem not having LJ on your roster.

This year I got my McGahee cuff snagged and it hurt, but I also snagged someone's S. Jackson cuff and that really had no affect until the last couple weeks.
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Postby deluxe_247 » Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:43 pm

the guy in my league last year had priest and was tied for first halfway through the season. when priest got hurt he picked up blaylock, i picked up LJ. he didnt end up making the playoffs, i won the league(although i didnt use LJ, i got him so no one else could use him). id say if its a keeper league, you have to get LJ for sure...even if it comes at a high price. you know he is going to be a stud next year at the latest, and you can bet he will go 1st round in next years draft assuming priest retires.
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Postby Azrael » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:22 pm

kevinoc81 wrote:It all depends if Priest gets hurt. If he stays healthy all year you'll have no problem not having LJ on your roster.

This year I got my McGahee cuff snagged and it hurt, but I also snagged someone's S. Jackson cuff and that really had no affect until the last couple weeks.


This happened in most of my leagues where some owners who selected marquis guys who had injury problems before did not get the handcuff (eg S. Davis, Holmes, Faulk, Henry). All of their backups were selected by someone else. Unfortunately, I stole the Jackson handcuff and it ended up that Faulk didn't get the ball enough to wear down very early in the year.
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Postby MadScott » Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:38 pm

I suppose alot depends on what happens in the offseason with Blaylock and LJ. I don't think that there is room in town for the both of them. Obviously, whoever ends up staying in KC is the guy you need to handcuff to Priest. It's apparent that either one of those guys is very capable of producing in that offense. Heck, I bet I could run in that offense. :-b
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