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Superbowl - Preliminary Lines

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Superbowl - Preliminary Lines

Postby Tyr » Wed Jan 26, 2005 8:45 pm

NEP -270 7 Philly +230 47.5

These are from my bookie only, mileage may vary. A touchdown seems like a pretty huge spread in an New England superbowl. I might put down a few units on Philly beating that, especially if word gets out that TO will be playing for sure. I think by the time the game rolls around, the line will probably drop to around NEP -5 or maybe even -4.

I really like under 47.5, too. I'm deffinately going to drop a bunch on this line early, before it drops. Both teams have strong defenses, and high scoring NEP games are pretty rare.. regardless of last weeks game, I feel comfortable with an under here.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jan 26, 2005 9:16 pm

You're right...that is a very high number for an over/under, but I still think it will be exceeded. I see a similar score as the Steelers game (34-20 ish). I'd wait until it goes down and then sell high! :-b

I still see TO as a non-factor, I would sell high on this as well.

But once again...I am very bad at this stuff! You definitely know more than I, and why I'm disagreeing with you is beyond me. :-/
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Postby Tyr » Wed Jan 26, 2005 9:21 pm

I wouldn't say I know more than you, I just have a gambler's instict. The best bettors I know base their bets on statistical trends, taking everything from colleges the players played in to weather to surfaces into account.

I, on the other hand, pay no attention to any of the details and very few statistics (outside of blatantly obvious things like hot and cold streaks, injuries, and player and team rivalries). I just get lucky riding on gut feeling. Whether that makes me a good gambler, or just a lucky bastard, I'll never know. :-b
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Postby joester » Thu Jan 27, 2005 10:39 pm

Love the Eagles +7. Also gonna drop a few units on the money. 2.3 to 1 is just to good to pass up. I thought the line would open up around 4 or 5. But if they wanna give a full TD thats fine too. I see this game being a replica of last year's Superbowl. Dog and the Over.
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Postby Tyr » Fri Jan 28, 2005 11:07 pm

Just a quick update:

Philly money line dropped from +230 to +220. Nothing else has changed yet.

As soon as word comes through that TO will be in for sure, the lines will probably go to something like NEP -240 4.5 Philly +190, spurred on by the onslaught of over eager Philly fans dropping bucks at the Mirage. (...or we can hope!)

I'm curious about the O/U, and whether it will rise or drop. I expected the team defenses to be overestimated, bringing the OU down by a good 10 points, but if TO plays, it might even raise. :-B
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