you're right. but that was just for a couple of games. we'll see how he holds up for a month, month-and-a-half. first 7 games: at DAL, WAS, TB, at CAR, MIN, at STL, NO. then their off week. we shall see.
I'm going to apologize in advance for the long post, but consider this post my own self-therapy as I'm still getting over the shock of my team starting the season without our hero.
As you said, Johnson did do well against the Giants last year, and I'm sure that while a lot of Atlanta's early season opponents will first breathe a sigh of relief at not having to face Vick, the very next thing they do will be to pull the tape of that one game for review. Teams will have a better idea of what to expect and how to prepare for him. However, while he is not Vick, he is fairly accurate and he's a smart player. If Spurrier wouldn't have shafted him in College, he probably would've been drafted by a team as a potential starter.
Reeves is most likely readjusting his playbook right now to go back to a more conservative style of play in order to play to Johnson's strengths. He's going to focus more than ever before on using the run to set up the pass. Therefore, the question of how well Johnson does depends on the ability of the O-Line to run-block and the ability of Duckett and Dunn to step it up a notch. If they can force the teams to respect our running without Vick, that will allow the multiple receivers more opportunities which Johnson does have the ability to take advantage of.
Unfortunately, while the starting O-line has been improving by working together as a group for a few years in a row now, they are not a dominant line so the power running style will probably not be very effective unless Duckett in particular is able to become the next Jerome Bettis in a hurry.
Specifically, since Vick is expected to be back for the Vikings game on Oct 5th, Johnson will face Dal, Wash, TB and Carolina. Dallas and Washington have been faring very poorly on the defensive side of the ball so we should have some success running against them which means Johnson could have a couple of good games using a play-action pass style a'la Chandler style. Carolina can be run against, but they do have a decent secondary combined with a really good pass rush so Johnson may or may not have a decent game against them. As for the TB game...I recommend starting somebody else.
So I personally see Johnson being a good backup for a fantasy team, but not somebody I want to be forced to start.
Vick isn't 'expected' back anytime. They can only predict how long the injury will keep him out. This is a fractured leg, minimum of 6 weeks is what I keep hearing. But, personally, I don't see Vick coming off this fracture in 6 weeks, it may very well take longer. Plus, the if the Falcons rush him back in when he's not a 100% and he keeps scrambling the way he does, he's bound to just make things worse. Come on guys, you knew this was going to happen sooner or later the way Vick plays the QB position. It was just a matter of time.
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LTFalcon, I appreciate your attempts at self-therapy, being a Life Time Lions fan I really can appreciate it! I don’t mean to disappoint you, but the Cowboys D will probably a top 15 D this year. On the bright side, I think Duckett is ready to assume the starters role and could be big this year. Johnson is a stopgap QB and I don’t see the value of picking him up for 4 games.
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There would be no way I'd take Doug Johnson, either. There are just too many other QBs out there who are more capable backups (Hasselbeck, Plummer, Harrington, Holcomb come to mind first). While he will be able to lead the Falcons to a couple of victories (and, contrary to LTFalcon's assessment, Dallas has a Top10 defense this year and should beat the Falcons), the Falcons will desperately need Vick back ASAP. And, if Joe Theismann can make it back in six weeks from a fractured fibula, then Michael Vick surely can. Oh, and your post wasn't THAT long, LTFalcon. If you want to see some long posts, just read some of mine (I've been known to write novels in my time, heh).