Most Overrated Player going into 2005 = Willis McGahee

[VHawk15]

I like McGahee in the top 5 this year, and maybe even higher. I view him as one of the surer bets for next season, as even the players considered of higher caliber (Alexander, Edge, Priest) have large questions marks. Who knows where Alexander or Edge will be playing, and Priest is just one year older with yet another injury and now a capable young RB backing him up.

Considering their late success last year, I expect the Bills to start to build their team around Willis, and maybe pick up some young offensive line help in the draft.

[TheOneManShow 26]

There is no way McGahee will be a top 5 back next year. There 2 reasons why
#1
Look at his stats from the games he started:
Week 6: 26 car 111 yards vs. Dolphins 31st run defense
Week 7: 16 car 58 yards vs. Ravens 8th run defense
Week 8: 30 car 102 yards 2 TD vs. Cardinals 27th run defense
Week 9: 37 car 132 yards 1 TD vs. Jets 5th run defense
Week 10: 14 car 37 yards vs. Patriots 6th run defense
Week 11: 20 car 100 yards vs. Rams 29th run defense
Week 12: 28 car 116 yards 4 TD vs. Seahawks 23rd rundefense
Week 13: 23 car 91 yards vs. Dolphins 31st run defense
Week 14: 27 car 105 yards 2 TD vs. Browns 32nd run defense
Week 15: 11 car 25 yards vs. Bengals 26th run defense
Week 16: 15 car 102 yards 2 TD vs. 49ers 20th run defense
Week 17: 18 car 79 yards 2 TD vs. Steelers 1st run defense
Over 12 weeks McGahee had 265 car 1058 yards 13 TD
Averaging 22 car 88 yards 1.1 TD a game with 4.0 ypc
Against ranked 1-15 defenses 85 car 306 yards 3 TD (4 games)
Averaging 21 car 77 yards 0.75 TD a game with 3.7 ypc
Against ranked 16-32 defenses 180 car 752 yards 10 TD (8 gms)
Averaging 23 car 94 yards 1.25 TD a game with 4.1 ypc
He had the majority of his yards and TD's against the lower tier defenses.
This year the bills will be playing:
Home-Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Denver, Kansas City, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston
Away-Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati
They will play 7 games against top 15 defenses against the run, including 4 in the top 5.
#2
They lost Drew Bledsoe. They will be playing a 2nd year player in J.P. Losman, who has never started in his career. Sure this may force the bills to run the ball more, but that also allows defenses to stack 8 and 9 in the box.

So if you ask me, there are at least 9 RBs ahead of him: Shaun Alexander, LT, Ahman Green, Edgerrin James, Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Jamal Lewis, and Priest Holmes.
I just don't understand how he is getting all this hype. The statistics speak for themselves.

[Flatulators]

The beauty of NFL Ticket is that you get to watch games that you normally wouldnt be able to. I watched Buffalo all year and Ill make my argument why McGahee is the #3 RB as of right now. Everyone talks about his 13TD's in 11 games. I believe I saw him have 2-3 LONG TD's called back because of penalties. I realize that this happens to everyone but it was the way he exploded on the plays that impressed me. He is a power back with moves and one HELLOVA stiff arm. As for Losman taking over next year...Bledsoe is/was horrible. He is a drive killer. They were stacking the box against Henry because they knew Bledsoe couldnt beat them. McGahee came in under the same circumstances and overcame them. Some backs just have that ability. Losman has a very stong arm and will stretch the field. With Evans' speed, I think defenses will have to respect that. This will also allow Losman to check down to the RB (which rookies tend to do) and improve McGahee's numbers.

I would say that LT is definitely #1...I love Shaun Alexander at #2 but who knows about where he may play next year. The next guy that I would even consider taking over McGahee is Edge and I sat him several times last year because of his lack of TD's (which wont change unless he moves on to another team). Priest Holmes-injury concerns and possible RBBC. Portis-will do nothing in Washington worthy of going this high. J Lewis-no legitimate receiving threts to keep defenses from focusing 100% on him. Ahman-I see RBBC more often here. Deuce-wildcard with new offense. Rudi Johson ahead of McGahee...common

[TheOneManShow 26]

Hey you may laugh at Rudi being ahead of Willis, but the team will be improved and they will not stack the line as much as last year as they did against Carson last year. And for Bledsoe, he had a hell of an arm and they had many deep passes last year, and I thkn the majority of the sacks against him were by the D-Lineman, so they did not stack 8 or 9 last year. But with Losman they will.

[The Lung]

Getting back to the original question, I don't think you can call him overrated until there is a clear consensus on where McGahee is rated. It seems like right now everyone is judging by the cafe mock where he went at #3 but some other mocks I've seen only have him somewhere in the top 10.

[UNDEFEATED]

There is no way McGahee will be a top 5 back next year. There 2 reasons why
#1
Look at his stats from the games he started:
Week 6: 26 car 111 yards vs. Dolphins 31st run defense
Week 7: 16 car 58 yards vs. Ravens 8th run defense
Week 8: 30 car 102 yards 2 TD vs. Cardinals 27th run defense
Week 9: 37 car 132 yards 1 TD vs. Jets 5th run defense
Week 10: 14 car 37 yards vs. Patriots 6th run defense
Week 11: 20 car 100 yards vs. Rams 29th run defense
Week 12: 28 car 116 yards 4 TD vs. Seahawks 23rd rundefense
Week 13: 23 car 91 yards vs. Dolphins 31st run defense
Week 14: 27 car 105 yards 2 TD vs. Browns 32nd run defense
Week 15: 11 car 25 yards vs. Bengals 26th run defense
Week 16: 15 car 102 yards 2 TD vs. 49ers 20th run defense
Week 17: 18 car 79 yards 2 TD vs. Steelers 1st run defense
Over 12 weeks McGahee had 265 car 1058 yards 13 TD
Averaging 22 car 88 yards 1.1 TD a game with 4.0 ypc
Against ranked 1-15 defenses 85 car 306 yards 3 TD (4 games)
Averaging 21 car 77 yards 0.75 TD a game with 3.7 ypc
Against ranked 16-32 defenses 180 car 752 yards 10 TD (8 gms)
Averaging 23 car 94 yards 1.25 TD a game with 4.1 ypc
He had the majority of his yards and TD's against the lower tier defenses.
This year the bills will be playing:
Home-Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Denver, Kansas City, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston
Away-Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati
They will play 7 games against top 15 defenses against the run, including 4 in the top 5.
#2
They lost Drew Bledsoe. They will be playing a 2nd year player in J.P. Losman, who has never started in his career. Sure this may force the bills to run the ball more, but that also allows defenses to stack 8 and 9 in the box.

So if you ask me, there are at least 9 RBs ahead of him: Shaun Alexander, LT, Ahman Green, Edgerrin James, Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Jamal Lewis, and Priest Holmes.
I just don't understand how he is getting all this hype. The statistics speak for themselves.

By your numbers Mcgahee averaged 14 points against. Big Time defenses. Not bad in my book. And the one bad game he had against Top Tier defense was a 7 pointer. Based on your law of averages. I would gladly take those numbers from my #1 RB against strong defenses.

Once again let me use your numbers. 7 games against strong defenses in '05.77 yards and 1 TD per game for 3 games in a four game span. With one game with no TD. With your 3 decent games to 1 bad game ratio. It would equal 6 good games and 2 bad ones. every eight games. Me like it alot.

If you do not mind i am going to twist the numbers a bit. With a 77 yard avg per game. He could easily gain 3 yards and make it 15 points instead of 14. Or go in the other direction.

Bottomline. 75 +/- yards and TD per game every3 of 4 games is SOLID in my book. What more would you want from a RB against a strong defense? 20 more yards. Give me a break. Don't forget you do have an entire team to make up for any slight defeiciences you may have.

I look at your numbers in a different light.

[Sixxgunn]

Just remember,as everyone is so quick to point out,he has only played 11 games.Yeas,they were spectacular.Remember Olandis Gary?I believe he had a monster season in Denver one year,then disappeared in the wastelands of Detroit,never to be heard from again.Not that McGahee is going to fall off the radar like Gary,but I'm simply making the point that 11 games isn't enough to appoint him rushing champion just quite yet.

[OwenTheBlonde]

Just remember,as everyone is so quick to point out,he has only played 11 games.Yeas,they were spectacular.Remember Olandis Gary?I believe he had a monster season in Denver one year,then disappeared in the wastelands of Detroit,never to be heard from again.Not that McGahee is going to fall off the radar like Gary,but I'm simply making the point that 11 games isn't enough to appoint him rushing champion just quite yet.

I agree on 11 games does not a superstar guarantee; however, much of FF is speculation and trying to get the next superstar early. He has shown all the signs and so obviously so that virtually everybody can see it, hence he's shot up the boards. I think some of it also has to do with a lot of people's disappointment with Ahman, Deuce and even Priest (injury,retirement shadow). There is definitely an overreaction with McGahee but it's hard to say how much of one it is until next year. I wouldn't say he's the safest pick in the top 5. Top 10 yes.

[Azrael]

One key element of being successful at fantasy football that alot of people haven't grasped is that if you wait until a player "proves" himself before you draft him then you've already lost. Each year you must find the players that you think will do really well that have not had standout years yet.

My team from the MIKL league is a perfect example. Here's my starters and where I drafted them in parens.

QB Pennington (5th)...but mainly I used WW guys like Collins, Bledsoe, and Volek all year

RB Edge (1st), T. Jones (3rd) (but also Goings from WW)

WR CJ (2nd), J. Walker (4th), Wayne (8th)

TE Crumpler (6th)

K Akers (12th)

Pitt D (16th)

This team went 12-4 and won the last 7 in a row for the championship. I credit 2 picks for this. Wayne and Walker, neither of which have made it out of the 3rd round in our 2 twelve teams cafe mocks (Ex Early Mock, Mock 2). That ended up giving me three top 9 receivers, which far outweighed my very weak QB position and somewhat 2nd RB position.

Basically what I am saying is that if you are waiting for players to become full blown studs or otherwise full time fantasy starters for everyone before you draft them then you are behind the game or just another average fantasy football owner.

Obviously with McGahee it's a little bit different scenario. We are talking about a side that argues he is top 5 versus people arguing top 10. But again we come back to the same argument, he hasn't "proven" to some people that he is top 5. Once he does, then it's too late.

[Horizons]

So Azrael, in order to reach this "Zen-like" state of enlightenment are you extolling the virtue that "knowledge is power" or whispering, "viva Las Vegas", in our ears?