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Engel on the Moss deal...

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Engel on the Moss deal...

Postby Ydub » Wed Feb 23, 2005 6:33 pm

One of Fantasy football's elite receivers is reportedly on his way to leaving a controversial, very productive run with the Vikings behind after many weeks of conflicting reports on his future. The high-energy, enigmatic wideout seems like a natural fit for the Silver and Black.

Fantasy owners already want to know, will Moss' value be greatly affected by a move to Oakland? He'll no longer be part of the high-powered Minnesota offense. Yet leaving Daunte Culpepper behind shouldn't concern Moss' keeper league owners, and those who will draft him in next season. Don't expect him to move off his perch as one of the best receivers in our game.

Randy Moss
Wide Receiver
Oakland Raiders
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2004 SEASON STATISTICS
Rec Yds TD Avg Long YAC
49 767 13 15.7 82 187



No matter what uniform he wears, Moss will always be firmly entrenched among the top receivers in fantasy. No single defensive back can seemingly contain him without help. We all know he has outstanding leaping ability and amazing quickness for a big man. Moss makes an offense better with his presence. He does not become better or worse based on the offense he plays in.

It doesn't take Moss much to make a big play. All a QB has to do is get the ball in his general area, and he'll make plays for them. In the past, Moss has made Gus Frerotte look good. And since Cris Carter retired, he has excelled playing with No. 2 receivers such as D'Wayne Bates and Derrick Alexander. No matter who is throwing the ball to him, or even if he is getting double-teamed, Moss always wants the ball, and he's going to make sure he gets it, to the annual delight of his fantasy owners.

With Oakland, he's sure to continue to succeed at a high level. While Kerry Collins doesn't quite match Daunte Culpepper in terms of upside and all-around skills, he certainly isn't shy about throwing the ball downfield. Collins will have no problems getting the ball to Moss, and he won't be shy about putting the ball up for grabs, just like Moss likes it.

STOCK UP...STOCK DOWN
UP:
Randy Moss
Kerry Collins
Jerry Porter
DOWN:
Daunte Culpepper
Ronald Curry
Onterrio Smith/Michael Bennett
TOO EARLY TO TELL
Nate Burleson
Justin Fargas



Moss is still a very good bet to score 15 or more TDs, especially in an environment where his "bad boy" image will actually fit in well. There's no apparent reason to expect a statistical slide from him. In fact, his arrival in Oakland instantly boosts the fantasy appeal of Collins, who now actually seems like a viable candidate to approach 30 TD passes next season. Playing with Moss could help Collins produce the best fantasy totals of his career.

Collins has never played with a receiver the likes of Moss, after years of looking to wideouts like Ike Hilliard. He now quickly becomes a top 10 QB without question. A receiving duo of Moss and Jerry Porter has quickly turned Collins from a retread at the end of 2003, to a very attractive fantasy choice as 2005 approaches. Collins has never thrown more than 22 TD passes in a year, and that mark should easily fall in '05.

Porter never seemed to be an ideal fit as Oakland's No. 1 receiver, and consistency was a big issue for him in 2004. Now, he and Moss can both benefit greatly from each other's presence. Moss will be playing with potentially his most explosive partner ever, and his best since Carter retired. With Moss drawing heavy defensive attention, Porter can finally have the full breakthrough season we have all been waiting for. Cracking double figures in TDs and reaching 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career seem to be very reachable goals for '05.

Kerry Collins
Quarterback
Oakland Raiders
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2004 SEASON STATISTICS
Att Comp PaTD RuTD Int Rat
513 289 21 0 20 74.8



The arrival of Moss will apparently hurt Ronald Curry's outlook, as he will likely get bumped to the third receiver spot after recovering from an Achilles' injury. Curry will still make the occasional big plays if he is healthy, but he won't be dependable. Yet having the luxury of Curry as a third receiver is another factor that makes Collins so appealing for the next season. A trio of Moss, Porter and Curry is a quarterback's dream, as well as a great luxury for the fantasy owners of that QB. Adding in Doug Gabriel as a No. 4 only adds further to the exciting fantasy possibilities for Collins.

How Oakland will upgrade their running game still remains to be seen, yet whichever RB opens the new season as the starter will benefit greatly from operating in a wide-open offense that is sure to help spread the field for some great open-field running. A scatback such as Justin Fargas could even rip off some sizable runs as defenses concentrate on containing the passing game. Yet losing a first-round pick in the deal, plus the increased salary the Raiders will now assume, could hurt Oakland's chances of acquiring a top RB this offseason. And that means Collins and Moss will certainly hook up very regularly, as the Raiders lean heavily on their passing game.

The team that Moss will leave behind will obviously be in some disarray. Daunte Culpepper has lost his biggest weapon, and cannot be considered a first or second round pick anymore. Yet don't drop Culpepper too far in your rankings. Every season, he has shown an increased willingness to throw to his other receivers, and has learned to spread the ball around much better to his other targets over the last two years. While losing Moss means Culpepper might not reach the 30-TD mark in passing, he still is a very dangerous scrambler and a good game manager. At a a QB position that is full of question marks, he remains, without question, a top five QB.

MOSS, by the numbers...

Finished 18th among all WRs in fantasy last season, 151 traditional points.

However...Moss missed five games. On a per game basis, he had 13.72 points per game, third only to Muhsin Muhammad and Terrell Owens.

The Vikings cannot expect to depend on the improving, but still unpolished Nate Burleson as their No. 1 guy. If they do, Burleson could be a big disappointment as he struggles against top cover corners every week. If Minnesota adds a quality veteran receiver, though, expect Burleson to continue to improve in '05. If he remains a No. 2 wideout, he'll display more consistency next year, and could easily crack the 10-TD and 1,100-yard marks. But only if Minnesota can give him a solid veteran complement, not a faded guy like Marcus Robinson. If the Vikes stick with their current stable of receivers, it won't help Culpepper or Burleson, and you won't see Robinson's stock rise. He certainly is no kind of suitable replacement for the departing Moss.

The Vikings now have the seventh overall pick in the draft, which they could very well use on another big-play type receiver, such as USC's Mike Williams. Playing with a rookie receiver could hurt Burleson and Culpepper only in the short term, but would ensure that they both remain fine fantasy selections from a future perspective.

Minnesota could also deal one of their very talented RBs for another No. 1 receiver. Minnesota onlookers have long wondered how the Vikings would unclutter their RB sitiaution, and now you could conceivably see someone like Michael Bennett or Onterrio Smith end up somewhere else as a featured back. It is very well possible the Moss deal could be the first of Minnesota's offseason moves. The RBs that remain in Minnesota, though, could see their production hurt as the passing game opens up less room for the run.

For now, we know this much. Moss remains among the best players at his position. Collins is now among the best at his position. Porter's stock appears to be higher than ever. Culepper's has slipped a bit, and we'll know in the near future what to truly expect from Burleson and the Minnesota RBs in '05.
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Postby Canadian Seahawk » Wed Feb 23, 2005 6:34 pm

Nice read

thx ;-D ;-D ;-D
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Postby UNDEFEATED » Wed Feb 23, 2005 7:29 pm

Canadian Seahawk wrote:Nice read

thx ;-D ;-D ;-D


ditto

go raiders!!!!!!

Raiders Stocks

Collins(UP) I agree with engle Top 10 material. All he does is throw the deep ball. At least more than Cpep.

Moss (Stays the same) Collins like to throw the deep ball more than Cpep. Then question is accuracy. Cpep is very accurate with the deep ball. Maybe that is because of moss and not Cpep.

Porter(Way up) I only say way up because of last season. Porters value was very low after the sub-par season. Even though he had a couple breakout games, i myself was not sold on his lofty value. Now i will definitely put him up a tier or two at least. Some of you will say he moves up a little bit. On my sheet he was more than likely lower than yours ranking. That is why he moves way up on my cheet sheet.

Curry(definitely down) Randy moss and Jerry Porter and a new RB. Curry is a lower from the statistics point. As for learning something he is rich.

Oakland RBs. No more 8 in a box. I know that Norv Turner is the Head Coach. But the OC is somebody else. Not really sure.

Minnesota Stock watch

Cpep(slight drops) is definitely not first round material any more.

Burleson(has to be an upgrade) When moss was out from week 7-12. Burleson was #5 WR in fantasy football. So top 10 is not a reach especially with Dante as his QB. Even if they do get another WR. Burleson will be just fine.

Robinson(slight upgrade, pending new arrival or wr) he was catching a lot of tds last season. But did not have the yardage to warrant serious consideration. I would bring somebody else in. Instead of depending on MROB

Minny RBs(downgrade or upgrade) depends on you. And how you view Moss's departure. More in the box less in the box. I am not really sure. they never had much value in my book being 4 deep last season. And likely being 3 deep this season. 3 rbs being shuffled around is not my cup of tea.
Last edited by UNDEFEATED on Wed Feb 23, 2005 7:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Guttpuppy » Wed Feb 23, 2005 7:40 pm

Good stuff,thanks for posting.
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Postby King_Portis » Wed Feb 23, 2005 8:18 pm

Nice read....but

Lets not get too excited for Collins. He has never thrown more than 25 TDs in any season and I think he only hit 20 twice. Collins can throw the deep ball but he can't scramble and give Moss the time to get deep, nor is Collins as accurate or have the arm strength as C-pep. I do agree his value does increase but Randys does fall. You still need a run game and lets not forget what the Patriots did to the Colts passing game. Engel is forgetting the basics, IMO. If you can just transplant a superstar from one team to another and they have equal success you have alot of teams doing it. Look at the great Hershel Walker trade Minnesota did in the 80's, it was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle. Portis for Bailey, both superstars, both had off years to their standards. Owens had a superb year but he had a stud QB throwing him the ball.
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Postby UNDEFEATED » Wed Feb 23, 2005 9:22 pm

King_Portis wrote:Nice read....but

Lets not get too excited for Collins. He has never thrown more than 25 TDs in any season and I think he only hit 20 twice. Collins can throw the deep ball but he can't scramble and give Moss the time to get deep, nor is Collins as accurate or have the arm strength as C-pep. I do agree his value does increase but Randys does fall. You still need a run game and lets not forget what the Patriots did to the Colts passing game. Engel is forgetting the basics, IMO. If you can just transplant a superstar from one team to another and they have equal success you have alot of teams doing it. Look at the great Hershel Walker trade Minnesota did in the 80's, it was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle. Portis for Bailey, both superstars, both had off years to their standards. Owens had a superb year but he had a stud QB throwing him the ball.


Yeah and he never had a receiver with Randy Moss's talent.

IT S RANDY MOSS FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!

St Louis is a decent example of a team without a running game thta is massively productive in the air. They have runners but no running game.
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Postby Horizons » Wed Feb 23, 2005 9:25 pm

Nice post and I too agree with UNDEFEATED that Burleson will be a WR to watch in '05 whether the Vikes sign a #1 or not.
Don't give up the ship...........sell it!!
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