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Postby The Miner Part 2 » Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:29 pm

sorry about timing out. i did prerank, i dont know what the hell happened... ive never used that site so im having trouble figuring it out. when i did get the prerank right i could only make prerank one guy... sorry again.
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Postby FF Newbie » Sun Apr 03, 2005 7:52 pm

Keyser_WV, don't get me wrong, you're putting together a good team. I just don't think it's clearly the best in this mock. I think people are discounting the fact that receptions are given one point each. That can make a HUGE difference. This especially increases the value of pass-catching RBs like DD, Westbrook, and Barber, but also possession receivers like Harrison. In this format, Harrison will put up numbers close to those of TO. Someone mentioned recently that Burleson was the #5 WR in the league when Moss was out, so I think he can do well next year. I don't know who I'd choose first between Burleson and Porter. I'd probably have to go with Burleson simply because Culpepper is that much better than Collins. I'll give you Gonzo over Heap.

As to DD, yes, I like him, especially in point per reception leagues. He was the #5 producer last year in my half-point per reception league in terms of points per game. I wasn't thrilled with him at #5 because I felt it was a weak draft spot to begin with, several RBs being about equal in my mind at that spot, but I felt he was the best option at that point. Regarding my receivers, Wayne and Driver were both in the bottom half of the top-10 last year, certainly top-12 so I think I'm in good shape there.
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Postby Azrael » Sun Apr 03, 2005 8:42 pm

A couple things.

First off, I am the Crap Ass Drafters...so thanks. ;-D

2nd that post about WV Warriors was made about 4 rounds into the draft when he had McGahee, Owens, KJ, and Gonzo. I wasn't a big fan of the Porter and Jackson picks though.

I don't think Burleson is overrated. He did face the top coverage guys during the time when Moss was injured and he turned in like top 5 or top 7 numbers during that time. I think he'll easily be better than Porter.

The other thing I'm not big of is drafting for depth. Sure you've got 3 top 10 RBs or whatever but you can only play 2 of them every week and to me you create another problem for yourself in that you'll have to decide if you want to play Martin or Westbrook each week.

I try to make my starters as strong as possible rather than have depth at one position and concede mediocrity at another. In your case, I wouldn't be confident starting Wayne and Driver every week. They are both No. 2s, which means inconsistency. First of all, you can't expect that Manning will repeat his numbers; therefore, you can't expect Wayne to repeat his. He's quite a shaky No. 1 WR in my opinion. Driver scored 4 fantasy points or less in 7 games last year, no thanks.

As of this post, I've added Baltimore's defense (yes, it's better than last year) and Kerry Collins. With all the weapons at Collins disposal, I'm EXPECTING 4k and 30 TDs.
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Postby FF Newbie » Sun Apr 03, 2005 9:18 pm

You're right about drafting for depth except:

1. That doesn't hold true if I can get a 2nd WR just as good a round later than where I picked my 3rd RB and

2. Having 3 RBs certainly isn't overkill when you can start 2. I wouldn't want to be in the position of having only 2 good ones, myself.

Nice pick with Baltimore. I would have taken them with this pick and actually wished I had taken them instead of Driver, the more I think about it because I could have gotten a good receiver with the pick I'm about to make. That's why you do the mocks.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't be confident starting Wayne and Driver, though. Sure, they're both number 2s, but they put up numbers almost as good as Harrison and Walker last year and I picked them up 2 rounds later. They were #10 and #11 overall in my league (went back to check it), so that's not shabby at all. I see no reason Favre and Manning won't perform as well this season as last. The fact that Driver had a couple of below-average games isn't a very strong point. All players do at any position, by definition. Driver was no less consistent than Owens, for that matter. Owens had some less-than-stellar games to go along with his 3-TD performances himself. That's the nature of the game and the WR position especially.

Plus, don't discount the fact that I have one of the top 3 quarterbacks by FAR in the league. All this isn't to say I necessarily have the best team, just to point out that in point-per-reception leagues, people tend to undervalue pass-catching running backs and possession receivers and to underscore the fact that there's more than one way to build a team.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 3:38 pm

Az, you're up for two picks whenever... I think there's like 3 hours left before you go to computer picks....
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Postby Keyser_WV » Mon Apr 04, 2005 7:56 pm

Hey AZ, Just wondering why you didn't like the Porter pick and then go on to say how much you like Collins.

You thought it was too early?

D. Jackson had 1200 Yards and 7 TD's last year.

Ranks 11th in yards
Ranks 10th in receptions
Ranks 20th in TD's

Not bad for a 6th round pick and #2 WR.

I'm not in love with my team but I think it would be competitive.

I think Newbie is right about the point per reception format. My RB's don't catch alot of balls.
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Postby FF Newbie » Mon Apr 04, 2005 11:13 pm

Keyser, I like the Jackson pick. That was an OFF YEAR for Jackson and he still put up good numbers. I would have taken him over Driver if you didn't.
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Postby Azrael » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:29 pm

Guess I'll try to respond to a couple posts here.

On Wayne and Driver

You really CAN'T expect Wayne to reproduce last year's numbers, because you can't expect Manning to reproduce his numbers. Wayne is not really a true No. 2; he's almost like a 2 and a half with the way Manning spreads the ball around. He throws the ball to EVERYBODY.

Driver followed up his last 9 TD performance with a 2 TD year so I'd be hesitant on relying on the past (hate it actually); Favre's another year older and the O-line lost their 2 best players. You really can't compare Driver to Owens; he was no where near as consistent as Owens. Owens rarely had a subpar game, usually had 100 yards and a TD and won a few games outright for his owners.

While it doesn't hurt to have a decent 3rd RB, I like to fill out my starters; and you noted that if you could find a WR as good in a round later then you were just as well off...problem is, I don't think you did; I think the opportunity was there but I think you picked the wrong guy. I would rather have Clayton, Muhammed, or Bennett (who you did get even a round later).

On Jackson and Porter

Jackson actually did not have an "off year". It was statistically his best year in all categories but TDs. His decent season was partially a result of K-Rob being more retarded than usual; therefore, he ended up catching a career high number of passes. I don't think Robinson will be outstanding but he should have more of an impact on Jackson's numbers. He still drops alot of passes and doesn't always have his head in the game.

Porter had poor yardage for being a No. 1 WR for 16 games last year; even though he did catch 9 TDs, 6 were in 2 games and he eclipsed 100 yards only 3 times. But maybe Porter isn't a No. 1 WR, so the addition of Moss may help him some; however, the Raiders will be using Gabriel and Curry too. So Porter's looks will be more diminished than a regular No. 2 receiver.

I like Collins alot though because he does have all these different options to throw to and Jordan gives him a legitimate running game to support him.

Again, I would rather have Clayton, Muhammed, or Bennett...maybe even Deion Branch over these guys. But I actually would have selected Jackson before Porter.

Bennett - the No. 1 receiver on a team where the No. 1 receiver does pretty well

Muhammad - proved last year that he can put up stats when he is the only guy; he knows how to get open; Grossman can get him the ball.

Branch - with Patten and Brown gone, he and Givens should see more balls from Brady. Branch took over in the playoffs last year which is a positive sign for this year.

Clayton - one of the young rising stars in the NFL, should build off a strong rookie year

My approach at drafting WRs is to usually find a stud and pair him with a guy that I think has potential to explode in the upcoming year (Burleson in this case), rather than draft guys who did semi-well the year before.

You guys keep referring to "so and so was top 10 or this or that rank so he was good to get in such and such round" A word of advice, NEVER draft anyone based on what they did in just the previous year. One of the cardinal sins in FF is ranking and drafting guys based on the prior year's numbers. Alot of people end up with busted or mediocre teams using this strategy. I'd much rather see someone take a chance on a guy who has some real potential for the upcoming year rather than settle for guys who will probably get 1,100 yards and 7 or 8 TDs.
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Postby FF Newbie » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:19 am

Well, I won't respond to all of that, but you say not to draft players based on what they did last season only to turn around and say you'd take Muhammad ahead of Driver because of what he "proved" last year. Muhammad never had more than 8 touchdowns in a season prior to last year and only broke 1,000 yards twice. He's been in the league NINE years and has done NOTHING to make us think he can repeat last year's performance next season, especially with an inexperienced QB who's just returning from a major injury that kept him out the last 13 games of last season under center. I would absolutely take Driver next year over Muhammad.

In addition, I think you're way overvaluing the "number one" wide receiver. Wayne, Bruce, Burleson, Curry, Driver, Lelie, Stokley, et al all proved last year that a "number two" receiver can produce almost as well as the number one (especially in pass-prolific offenses or offenses with a great QB), but you can pick them up in fantasy drafts several rounds later. If you're so sure Wayne won't duplicate last year's numbers you must also be sure Manning's numbers will drop enough to not consider taking him until the 2nd or 3rd round...

The biggest problem I have with your argument that you shouldn't draft a third RB until you've filled up all your starting positions is that you're basing it entirely on your opinion that Clayton and Muhammad are superior to Driver and Bennett. I considered Clayton and Muhammad, but I happen to disagree that they are better than the receivers I drafted. Apparently several others did as well since lots of receivers you "don't like" went before them in our mock. If you like Muhammad and Clayton so much, why did you let them fall as far as they did?

P.S. How much do you want to bet that if Wayne plays 16 games, he won't break 1,100 yards or 8 TDs?
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Postby Azrael » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:59 pm

First off, I'd say 1,100 yards and 8 TDs might be just about right for Wayne this year!

There is no QB I'll take before the 3rd round. I just think your team suffers elsewhere too much if you take one in the 1st or 2nd round.

It's not that I like Muhammed and Clayton so much, just that I like them more than Driver. I think the thing with Muhammed is that he was never "the guy" before in his career. When Smith went down and they couldn't run worth crap, Muhammed became Delhomme's safety blanket. I'm honestly not looking to target him in any drafts but I think he'll be in a similar situation in Chicago. The running game isn't bad, but isn't great and he'll be the first thing Grossman looks for every time he drops back.

I let those guys (and every other guy for that matter) fall down because I already had my guys...Harrison (stud) and Burleson. Then i started filling in the rest of my lineup, namely defense, QB, and third RB.

To be honest, I really wasn't even thinking of point per receptions because I don't play in any of those types of leagues so no matter what the scoring is in the mock, I typically draft based on the scoring in my normal leagues.
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