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ODotW: Part 7, Top 10 QB's

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Postby J2thez929 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 1:57 pm

Here is how I rank em for the 2005(non-keeper) season:

1. Manning
2. McNabb
3. C-Pepp
4. T. Green
5. Bulger
6. Collins
7. Delhomme
8. Favre
9. Vick(if he goes a good WR)
10. Brady
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Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:58 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Almost all of Collins' turnovers came in those first few games he came in. Once he got adjusted to the system he was actually fairly lights out the last half of the year. I need to throw some numbers together and look at 2nd half fantasy QB's, because I'm guessing Collins would've been right near the top last year.

Bulger threw 22 INT's of his own in 2003, and has always been known for turning the ball over much like Collins has.

Not sure what effect completion percentage and QB rating has in fantasy.

The bottom line as I see it, and you're certainly entitled to your own opinion as well, is that Collins put up only roughly 30 fewer points than Bulger last year even in yardage heavy scoring systems (which favor Bulger's numbers from last year) in one fewer game, and he gets Moss this year. And that's after a horrid start be Collins, he came on very strong when he got adjusted and things started to click.



OK, have a look at Collins' career stats:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3115/career

He's ALWAYS hovered between a 65 and 75 QB rating... He's always had something like a 1 to 1 TD to INT ratio... Sometimes a little better... Sometimes a little worse.... In fact, lifetime, he has 153 TD's to 154 INT's... So, please spare me the nonsense about learning a new system... That has been this guy's M.O. for his entire career.... Even in his career year (2002) he still only threw 19 TD's and 14 picks.... That's pretty piss poor for a career year, if you ask me.... That's just over 1 TD per game, and just under 1 pick per game... Do the math... In my leagues, that works out to a little over 2 points per game before you factor in yardage.... His career average for passing yards per game is 218 yards... Now, in most of my leagues, that is 10 points.... And in several of them, it is much less than that... But let's go with 10.... That's an average of 12-13 FFP's per game.... Which I consider to be mediocre at best.... And the guy is a veteran... If he hasn't done better by now, chances are he's not going to do any better from here on out.... If anything, his career will begin to fade more than it will begin to peak... He's going to be in his 11th season....

Now Bulger, on the other hand, is only a third year guy.... His QB rating in his first season as a starter (7 games) was 101... His second season, it dipped to 81.4 (well above Collins' average) and last year rebounded to 93.7... His 2003 season skewed his turnover ratio because he had a 1 to 1... But that was his first season as a starter... If you were to eliminate that one bad year he would have a 7 to 4 TD to INT ratio... Not great, but considerably better than Collins... Even in the year that he threw all those interceptions, he threw 22 TD's... A feat which has only been accomplished once by Collins in his 10 year career (2000)... And Bulger is still young... He's still learning what it means to be an NFL QB.... If anything, he should improve.... Especially with the youth on that team...

Now, let's look at a VERY telling statistic.... Yards per passing attempt... This is a very important fantasy football number here... Let's look at some career yards per attempt statistics, since we've already established that Collins isn't much in the TD department.... Maybe his yardage figures will be better:

Mark Bulger's y/a number is 7.8 ....

Kerry Collins' y/a number is 6.6 ....

Now, that might not sound like much of a difference, but when you consider that QB's typically have 500-600 passing attempts in a season, that is a big difference....

For purposes of comparison, let's look at some other QB's yards/attempt figures:

Culpepper - 7.8
Mark Bulger - 7.8
Trent Green - 7.7
Peyton Manning - 7.6
--------------------------
Tim Rattay - 6.7
Kerry Collins - 6.6
Patrick Ramsey - 6.4
Josh McCown - 6.1


All things being equal, Bulger is starting out his career with better stats than Collins ever peaked with....

I don't see how you can say that Collins is the better option....

Moss or no Moss, Bulger is the better QB, and he's just getting started.... Collins is a 10-year vet who never performed as well as Bulger has in his first 3 seasons....

You asked for my justification, and there it is... And the Randy Moss factor is the reason that Kerry Collins made my list at all, but he certainly doesn't elevate a 55% (completions), 70.0 (QB rating) kind of guy to a top five threat over night....
Last edited by Plindsey88 on Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby gatorman1122 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 3:17 pm

4. Bulger
5. Green
6. Hasselbeck
7. Brady-no love for the 3 time superbowl winner? mr. consistency-almost 2 tds a game
8. Favre
9. Kerry Collins-some people say that Randy Moss could get TDs every game even if a robot was throwing the ball to him...we'll soon see if that theory is true.
10. Brees-1 year wonder? went from the worst QB to one of the best QBs...has FLUKE written all over him

*Gasp8-o...Vick is not in the top 10...because he doesn't deserve to be...Take a look at his numbers
Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs
04 ATL 2313 14 12 902 3
03 ATL 585 4 3 255 1
02 ATL 2936 16 8 796 8
01 ATL 785 2 3 300 1

He's had only 1 good year so far and hasn't been able to break the 3000 yd passing barrier and has scored 20+ TDs (passing and rushing combined) once. The only upside I see with Vick is his potential to score on the ground.




Jake Plummer,
Tom Brady,
Aaron Brooks,
Chad Pennington,
Jake Delhomme,
Carson Palmer 8-o
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Postby MadScott » Mon Apr 04, 2005 3:29 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Santacruzer wrote:One guy who I am excited about having as a sleeper pick is Pennington. He will be around as a second selection QB, and could perform quite well IMO.

He is one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL, Has Coles back (they had a huge connection before - both had their best seasons together), and now Penny has a Offensive Coordinator that isn't affraid to throw the ball downfield.

I think he will become the QB everyone thought he would be in 2004.


I think you could be on to something here, I really like Pennington's value, he seems to be going in rounds 9 through 11, which is pretty late.
I agree with both of you here. The biggest difference I think will be the new OC this season. Pennington is about as accurate a passer as you can get. If Martin can take some pressure off of the passing game, I would look for them to open up the offense more this season with McCareins and Coles than what they showed last year. I will say this though, as I was a Penny owner/believer last season, have a good second QB option if the Jets return to their running ways of last season. Penny killed me with 200yds. of passing with no TDs in quite a few games last season.
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Postby joshyboy72 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 3:48 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:I've got em:

1) Manning
---------------
2) McNabb
3) Culpepper
---------------
4) Bulger
5) Vick
6) Green
---------------
7) Brady
---------------
8) Brees
9) Delhomme
10) Favre
---------------
11) Hasselbeck
12) Collins
13) Plummer
---------------
14) Palmer
15) Brooks
16) Pennington
----------------
17) Carr
18) Leftwich
19) Roethlisberger
-----------------
20) Ramsey

I really hope those aren't tier cutoffs...there are nowhere near that many. I won't argue your rankings though, although I don't agree with many of them I can see from your last post you at least have what it takes to back them up.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:04 pm

joshyboy72 wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:I've got em:

1) Manning
---------------
2) McNabb
3) Culpepper
---------------
4) Bulger
5) Vick
6) Green
---------------
7) Brady
---------------
8) Brees
9) Delhomme
10) Favre
---------------
11) Hasselbeck
12) Collins
13) Plummer
---------------
14) Palmer
15) Brooks
16) Pennington
----------------
17) Carr
18) Leftwich
19) Roethlisberger
-----------------
20) Ramsey

I really hope those aren't tier cutoffs...there are nowhere near that many. I won't argue your rankings though, although I don't agree with many of them I can see from your last post you at least have what it takes to back them up.




Those are tier cutoffs in the sense that all of the folks within each of those groups, I consider to be equal with regards to fantasy value... I'm not sure if there is very much distinction at all within those boundaries fantasy-wise... I'm not saying that there is a huge difference between those groups, just that I don't see very much difference at all within each group....
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Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:17 pm

gatorman1122 wrote:4. Bulger
5. Green
6. Hasselbeck
7. Brady-no love for the 3 time superbowl winner? mr. consistency-almost 2 tds a game
8. Favre
9. Kerry Collins-some people say that Randy Moss could get TDs every game even if a robot was throwing the ball to him...we'll soon see if that theory is true.
10. Brees-1 year wonder? went from the worst QB to one of the best QBs...has FLUKE written all over him

*Gasp8-o...Vick is not in the top 10...because he doesn't deserve to be...Take a look at his numbers
Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs
04 ATL 2313 14 12 902 3
03 ATL 585 4 3 255 1
02 ATL 2936 16 8 796 8
01 ATL 785 2 3 300 1

He's had only 1 good year so far and hasn't been able to break the 3000 yd passing barrier and has scored 20+ TDs (passing and rushing combined) once. The only upside I see with Vick is his potential to score on the ground.




Jake Plummer,
Tom Brady,
Aaron Brooks,
Chad Pennington,
Jake Delhomme,
Carson Palmer 8-o



The upside to Mike Vick is that most leagues weight rushing yards and rushing TD's heavily over passing yards and passing TD's...

If Mike Vick puts up 2600 passing yards, 1000 yards rushing, 15 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's (all within his reach), he nets out 320 FFP in that season....

Now, a pure passing QB like Warner or Manning has to put up something like 4000 yards and 30 passing TD's to match that same figure....

It's nothing for Vick to have a 200 yard, 2 TD (passing) and 80 yard, 1 TD (rushing) game... Do the math... That's 32 FF points... Peyton Manning has to put up 320 passing yards and 4 TD's to match that number....

THAT is what keeps Vick in the top 10.... And in most people's eyes the top 5....
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:23 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:OK, have a look at Collins' career stats:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3115/career

He's ALWAYS hovered between a 65 and 75 QB rating... He's always had something like a 1 to 1 TD to INT ratio... Sometimes a little better... Sometimes a little worse.... In fact, lifetime, he has 153 TD's to 154 INT's... So, please spare me the nonsense about learning a new system... That has been this guy's M.O. for his entire career.... Even in his career year (2002) he still only threw 19 TD's and 14 picks.... That's pretty piss poor for a career year, if you ask me.... That's just over 1 TD per game, and just under 1 pick per game... Do the math... In my leagues, that works out to a little over 2 points per game before you factor in yardage.... His career average for passing yards per game is 218 yards... Now, in most of my leagues, that is 10 points.... And in several of them, it is much less than that... But let's go with 10.... That's an average of 12-13 FFP's per game.... Which I consider to be mediocre at best.... And the guy is a veteran... If he hasn't done better by now, chances are he's not going to do any better from here on out....


And who was Collins throwing to during those years? Hilliard/Toomer. ??/??. ??/??. The ?'s are there because I don't even know who the WR's on the Saints and Panthers were during those years. Give Collins Holt/Bruce all those years, and you'd be looking at different numbers. Collins is a strong-armed QB that likes to throw deep, but he's been without a big deep threat nearly his entire career, until now. Not sure why you picked Collins 19/14 year as his "career year" either when he had a year with more TD's and fewer int's.

The rest of the post I don't get. QB Rating. Completion Percentage. Yards per attempt. What kind of crazy scoring system you using there?

You could try and argue that those are indicators of the stats that actually do matter in fantasy, but the fact of the matter is that Collins took his inferior QB rating, inferioir completion percentage, inferior yards per attempt, and inferor WR corps and put up roughly the same fantasy numbers, which is really what it comes down to. Now give him an equal (or better) WR crops, and we'll see what happens. Just what kind of effect exactly do you think Randy Moss is going to have have on someone's yards per attempt?

You also mentioned earlier about Jordan meaning Oakland will run more, even though last year's RB (Wheatley) was already a pound it out type guy that requires lots of carries. If anything, St Louis is the team going from the guy that can make big plays in the passing game (Faulk) to the grind it out type runner that requires more carries to be effective.

While we're on the subject of Collins' career numbers. Let's look over the career numbers of Gus Frerotte.

His three career best season's included TD/int ratios of 13/13, 12/11, and 17/12 respectively, even worse than Collins. His career completion percentage was around 54%, his career yards per attempt was under 7, and his career QB rating was around 70. All worse than Collins.

He got two starts with Randy Moss on his side? The numbers:

40-55 506 yards 6 TDs 1int

That's a completion percentage of 73%, a yards per attempt of 9.2, and a QB rating around 130.

Granted, it's a very small sample size, but here's another interesting fact. Frerotte had 2 career starts with Moss, and 65 without him. In those 2 starts with Moss, he had a game with better numbers than any game in any of his SIXTY FIVE starts without Moss.

Now, Bulger is young and has potential to improve further, but the knocks on him are the same as they were on Collins at the same point in his career.

And if Moss' hamstring injury comes back this year a la Ken Griffey Jr, Collins is going to suffer.

But given two QB's that put up roughly equal numbers last year, I'll take the one in a vastly improved offense with Superman the stud QB creator on his side.

Regardless, I think this debate has run its course. You like Bulger's potential due to his youth and I like Collins potential due to Moss. To each his own.
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Postby TTTBone » Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:54 pm

Hmmm... I missed this thread earlier.
Nice discussion. ;-D

Mine look like this:
1) Manning
2) McNabb
3) Collins
4) Culpepper
5) Favre
6) Delhomme
7) Vick
8) Carr (sleeper)
9) Bulger
10) Brady

Not the conventional picks, but it never works out as we predict, does it?
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Postby gatorman1122 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 7:18 pm

The upside to Mike Vick is that most leagues weight rushing yards and rushing TD's heavily over passing yards and passing TD's...

If Mike Vick puts up 2600 passing yards, 1000 yards rushing, 15 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's (all within his reach), he nets out 320 FFP in that season....

Now, a pure passing QB like Warner or Manning has to put up something like 4000 yards and 30 passing TD's to match that same figure....

It's nothing for Vick to have a 200 yard, 2 TD (passing) and 80 yard, 1 TD (rushing) game... Do the math... That's 32 FF points... Peyton Manning has to put up 320 passing yards and 4 TD's to match that number....

THAT is what keeps Vick in the top 10.... And in most people's eyes the top 5....

True...it all depends on the scoring system...My league scores passing TDs and rushing TDs the same (6 pts per TD and 1 pt per 50 yd passing and 1 pt per 20 yd rushing)
In my league, Vick was ranked behind (in order) manning, C-pepp,mcnabb, favre, delhomme, brees, green, plummer, brady, brooks, bulger, hasselbeck, leftwich (whoa...he outscored Vick???), and collins.
...Just curious, what scoring system are you using?
IMO 2 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD per game is somewhat of a challenge for Vick. It's nearly impossible for him to average those numbers (=34 passing TDs and 17 rushing TDs per season :-?). In addition, Vick struggles mightily against fast defenses. Just look at the Tampa Bay game last year, where Vick was one of the few QBs that netted negative points in my league
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