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Overrated 2005

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Postby deluxe_247 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 10:41 pm

well i agree with shockey and mushin...thats about it....and i wouldnt say bulger is top 3..but possibly top 5
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Postby Santacruzer » Tue Apr 05, 2005 2:52 am

Shockey was held back to block a lot more last year because of a poor O-line and he got into at least 1 arguement with Coughlin about his lack of participation in the offense. It could be the same situation this year for him, but as a middle of the road TE, yeah, I'd take him later in the draft. He was getting a lot of looks in the endzone.

Mushin is going to fall off the face of the Earth. He had a great season because he had a good QB and only a rookie on the other side of the field. He been called "too old" for a few years now. If he was going to be in Carolina again this year I would have "some" respect for what he may do this year (even though he would be the 2nd WR there with Steve Smith back). Most of all, he is going to WR purgatory. No WR plays or looks good in Chicago, especially in December with big ??? at QB.

Ward I think will have a decent year because he is clearly the #1 WR in Pittsburgh. The problem is Rothlisberger played to "control" games, not neccessarily "win" them. He only had 4 games with over 200yds passing, and only 5 games with multiple TDs and those were all with just 2 TDs. Hard to put up great #'s if that's all the QBs giving out, never mind having to share.
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Re: Overrated 2005

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 3:00 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Bulger: Top 3? I don't think so...


Not sure where you're getting this, I haven't seen anyone say Bulger was top 3.


Little known fact: Bulger led the league in rushing TDs for QBs last year. AND he missed a couple games. This guy is Trent Green + some rushing numbers. I would rate him just like all the other QBs drafted between 4-10 off the board. Costs just as much as Trent Green in the 5th or 6th round...


Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Green: Call me a inconsiderate Vikings fan, but their team is aging and O-Line falling apart. No longer the elite player he was.


Not sure if you noticed or not, but Ahman's not being drafted as the elite player he was either (formerly a consensus top 5 and even top 3 pick). He's been going late 1st, even early 2nd in some leagues/mocks. I actually think he's fairly good value if you can get him way back there.


Ahman's rankings the past 5 years:

2000(5th), 2001(3rd), 2002(13th), 2003(3rd), 2004(12th)

Basically he's been a top15 RB every year as a starter. And in the years when he hasn't had any injuries (2000, 2001, 2003) he's ranked up in the top5. Right now I'd say Ahman is being drafted anywhere from the 7th RB all the way into the 20th RB range. Sounds like good value to me.....




Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Ward: Ben Roethlisberger is not a quarterback. He is a leader that will get EVERYONE involved. This means on any given week, Staley could get more catches than Ward.


I'm torn on this one. On one hand, again he's fallen a good bit in the draft, to about the middle of the 4th compared to early 3rd last year, so that helps. Though he may not even be a middle 4th round WR after what I saw of him with Roeth last year, he could be a steal or a bust, certainly not what you typically expect out of Ward, which is consistency.


I'm sold on drafting Ward in the 4th round. Last year there were guys like Steve Smith, Santana Moss, and Laverneous Coles (with a bad toe) being drafted in that range. Now you can get a bonafide stud WR there, because he has a "rookie QB" ....who was top5 in the league in QB rating last year.

The Steeler's ran the ball the most out of any team in the modern era in 2004, something like 65% of the time. I can't believe anyone would think that will continue in 2005. It's like the movie the Perfect Storm, you need to have several perfect conditions for that to happen. If the Steeler's run the ball 10% less in 2005 than they did in 2004, they would still be only one of 30 teams that has run that ball that much in the past 2 decades.

Look for the Steeler's to pass the ball a lot more next year, especially if their defense falls back to Earth (remember the huge letdown in the AFC Championship game?). Ward is going to be targeted like no other WR next year, I'm betting he easily cracks 100 receptions without Plaxico in town, mark it down.

Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Walker: I LOVE this kid, but I see a decline in the Packers offense and he is commonly referred to as the 6th or 7th best WR.


Agreed. Throw in his boom or bust play by play style and he's scary as an early 3rd type guy. Seems like this guy will go scoreless for three quarters and then rack up 150yds and 2 TD's on the next three possessions. What happens if he doesn't have that monster 7-minute span for a couple weeks?


Walker has turned into a stud WR in my eyes. After 2003 I would call him a gamble because he depended so much on the deep ball to produce numbers. But in 2004 he broke through catching virtually everything thrown to him including the short and intermediate passes. This guy is a 90 reception WR with big play ability... and the same type of argument you guys are making could be said for any number of WRs in the league. No one disses a VERY similar WR Chad Johnson and he is a less complete WR than Javon Walker IMO.

Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Shockey: Consistently considered one of the Tier 1 TEs. One word: Why?


Gonna have to go the opposite way here. Shockey is a guy who's been overrated his entire career, until this year. This year he's being drafted as a middle of the pack TE, so his value isn't top 4 rounds like it used to be, and I dunno if I'm the only one who got lots of Giants game on TV, but it seemed like EVERY TIME Eli dropped back to throw he was staring down Shockey. I actuallys expect him to have great value this year based on where he's being drafted.


Agreed. Shockey is falling back into the pack of TEs because of the monster year a lot of guys had in 2004. Before that, Shockey was one of 3 TEs that even had a chance at breaking 1000 yards. Shockey puts up yardage like a WR and with the way Manning was targeting him at the goalline, I could see Shockey as the guy most likely to pass Gates and Gonzalez as the #1 TE at year's end.

Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Vinateiri: The Patriots and Vinny are still a great team. But, no longer the team that can settle for field goals and win games consistently.


I think this one has less to do with Vinateiri as a player and more to do with him being a kicker. I practically wrote a dissertation last offseason about how ridiculously inconsistent from year to year kickers are, and that year just like every year the last decade people spent early picks on the top kickers (Wilkins and Vandy) and they didn't even crack the top 10 in kicker scoring. It will happen again this year. People will draft Vinateiri in the top 8 rounds just like they've done with the top kicker the last 5 years as I repeatedly showed them the reasons not to, and again we'll see a huge dropoff in said top kicker's numbers. WHEN ARE PEOPLE GOING TO LEARN.


I was in the same boat until this past season when I noticed that sometimes waiver wire kickers just don't cut it and it's worthwhile to have a "stud" kicker on your roster. There are exceptions to this rule "never draft a kicker in the last round". Vinateri is not an exception but look at these trends:

Which teams have been hanging out in the top ten in K-scoring annually?

Philadelphia for the last 5 years
Denver for the last 8 years

Target David Akers and Jason Elam in the 12th and 13th rounds and you'll be rewarded with a consistent kicker.

Free Bagel wrote:
Bennett4prez wrote:Steelers DEF: Commonly looked at as the #4 defense. This year, such a thing doesn't exist. You have Baltimore and the Bills. The Patriots are 3rd. Then, there is all the other defenses, take your pick.


Agreed. Once you get past the top couple D's the rest of them get thrust into a tossup. Not to the extent of kickers but a tossup nonetheless. Anyone remember where Pitt finished the last time they went into a season with a top 5 ranked fantasy D? Not in the top 20 if I can recall.


I agree with this statement but disagree with the locks. I would put only the Ravens and the Patriots as top defenses year in and year out. I still probably wouldn't draft either of them, it's just not worth a 7th or 8th round pick. When I start thinking of defense around the 10th round, everyone looks the same to me, I usually wait until someone jumps out at me in the 12-14th rounds.

BTW, The Bills were at the bottom of the league in fantasy numbers at the beginning of 2004 and this went on for multiple weeks, I don't see how you can consider them a lock for even a top10 finish. They scored a ton of defensive and special teams TDs, and if you count on that type of scoring to ensure a top10 finish, you my friend are crazy.
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Postby MadScott » Tue Apr 05, 2005 3:41 pm

The Walker selection is the real pick that I'm opposed to here. Kensat made a great comparison with CJ and Walker, very similar WRs and I agree, Walker is probably better rounded. I think if the GB running game takes a hit this year, it'll be up to the aerial assault to fill the void. He's top 5 in my book right now.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 3:49 pm

The Most Overrated Player of 2005 award goes to:

Kerry Collins....

The guy is barely a 50% passer, has thrown more career interceptions than touchdowns, is no longer a spring chicken, and generally has been mediocre at best for the past 10 years, and now all of a sudden you give the guy a good WR and people are expecting the second coming of Christ....

Collins will improve, no doubt.... But he will not be anywhere near a top 5 QB this season, or ever.... Randy will make Collins look better than he is, just like Culpepper (and a division full of weak secondaries) helped Randy Moss to look better than HE is... But all of you folks out there that are expecting Kerry Collins to have a 4000 yard, 30 TD season this year need to come check out this bridge I have for sale....
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Postby deluxe_247 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 5:54 pm

great post kensat ;-D
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Postby Azrael » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:47 pm

Bulger Can't figure out where you are getting this either. Ask just about anyone and Manning, Culpepper, and McNabb are top 3.

McGahee I've said this before, the guy is maybe behind LT talent wise; other than that, he's more talented than any other RB in the league as skills go. However, being talented and being a fantasy producer are 2 different things, but still this guy is no lower than 4 on my RB list at any time behind LT, SA, and Priest. Remember he also put up his stats in just 11 starts last year. I think people forget this.

Green and Ward - not overrated, Green is not considered a top tier back and Ward is being drafted somewhere in the 4th or 5th round usually.

Muhammad - would have been overrated if he has stayed with Carolina, not overrated going to the Bears, 7th or 8th round pick usually.

Walker - very well could be overrated, but I've still got him at 5.

Shockey - no actually I think he has good value now, 6th round is a good pickup. Line will be a little better, Eli has a season under his belt and they added Burress.

Vinatieri - I usually see Vanderjagt and Akers taken ahead of him; not really overrated.

Steelers D - nothing has changed on defense. I think they may even be better, especially if they can upgrade at corner.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:02 am

I'm not gonna argue that Mcgahee is overrated because personally I'm torn on that issue, but just something to throw out there.

Mcgahee ran for 100+ yards 7 times last year. Of those 7 games, here are the defenses he faced:

Miami (111yds)
Arizona (102yds)
NYJ (132yds)
STL (100yds)
Seattle (116yds)
Cleveland (105yds)
SF (102yds)

Of those 7 teams, only the Jets ranked in the top 20 (out of 32) in rushing defense.

In fact, the Browns, Fins, Rams, and Cards represent the teams ranked #32, #31, #29, and #27 respectively.

Against top defenses he put up:
Baltimore 58yds
NE 37yds
Pitt 79yds

Haven't seen his schedule for next year yet so this certainly isn't a break the bank type deal, but just something to throw out there.
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:17 am

Free Bagel wrote:I'm not gonna argue that Mcgahee is overrated because personally I'm torn on that issue, but just something to throw out there.

Mcgahee ran for 100+ yards 7 times last year. Of those 7 games, here are the defenses he faced:

Miami (111yds)
Arizona (102yds)
NYJ (132yds)
STL (100yds)
Seattle (116yds)
Cleveland (105yds)
SF (102yds)

Of those 7 teams, only the Jets ranked in the top 20 (out of 32) in rushing defense.

In fact, the Browns, Fins, Rams, and Cards represent the teams ranked #32, #31, #29, and #27 respectively.

Against top defenses he put up:
Baltimore 58yds
NE 37yds
Pitt 79yds

Haven't seen his schedule for next year yet so this certainly isn't a break the bank type deal, but just something to throw out there.


It's on this note why I think McGahee is too overrated as well. I've seen him go as high as #2 overall (see Mock II), and that is utterly ridiculous. It is also for this reason I hope JJ follows up his rookie showing with a good year, so the critics will be quelled on him (he and McGahee are in a similar boat as far as this goes).
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Postby portisfan24 » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:21 am

I agree 100 percent with the Ward pick. I had heard that it was Plax who got all the double teams in Pittsburgh. Now that hes gone, I see Ward getting a lot more double teams.

A few guys I think are overrated- Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning (still the number 1 QB, but he shouldnt go in the first round), Willis Mcgahee, Ahman Green.
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