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Working on a QB formula -- 2004 RESULTS!

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Working on a QB formula -- 2004 RESULTS!

Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 9:33 am

OK, many people are familiar with my defensive formula, for calculating the best defensive matchups from week to week.... Well, I'm thinking of working up a similar formula for QB's wherein they will be compared to the secondaries they face each week... The first step was to come up with a formula for evaluating the QB's according to potential fantasy worth... Step two will be to come up with a way of evaluating the secondaries... And I'm working on that now... But I thought you might be interested to see the QB ratings (independent of matchups) for last year, and their relative worth numerically.... Below is a list of each of the QB's and the scores they received according to my QB formula.... See what you think (some of it may be shocking):


1) Manning - 69524
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2) Culpepper - 58086
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3) McNabb - 49227
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4) Brees - 30468
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5) Delhomme - 16129
6) Bulger - 15406
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7) Favre - 13765
8) Brooks - 13653
9) Brady - 13118
10) Green - 12760
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11) Plummer - 11808
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12) Volek - 10344
13) Hasselbeck - 9770
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14) Vick - 9149
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15) Leftwich - 8347
16) Pennington - 8100
17) Griese - 8079
---------------------------
18) Roethlisberger - 6819
19) Harrington - 6387
----------------------------
20) Carr - 5972
21) Collins - 5618
----------------------------
22) Palmer - 4748
23) Bledsoe - 4697
24) McCown - 4396
25) Garcia - 4096
----------------------------
26) Boller - 3755
27) Warner - 3382
28) Testaverde - 3258
-----------------------------
29) Rattay - 2532
30) Feeley - 1966
Last edited by Plindsey88 on Thu Apr 07, 2005 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby pdub » Thu Apr 07, 2005 9:37 am

are you surrounded by beakers and wearing a lab coat when you come up with these formula?

just wondering...
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 9:47 am

pdub wrote:are you surrounded by beakers and wearing a lab coat when you come up with these formula?

just wondering...


LOL.... Not exactly....

But, for those of you interested, here is the formula:


A = Passing TDs

B = Passing Yards

C = Interceptions

D = Rushing TD's

E = Rushing Yards

G = games played


Total score = [(A+2D)(A+2D)(B+2E)/(C)(G)]
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Apr 07, 2005 10:24 am

Cool if this helps out as much as your defense rankings this will be good.

Not sure if you're taking suggestions on the formula, but it seems very very dependant on INT's, which are a much less critical stat in fantasy scoring (only -2 in most leagues).

In that list (it's supposed to be based on last year right?) I see a couple guys ranked below 6 or 7 other guys even though they had waaaay higher fantasy PPG.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 10:48 am

Free Bagel wrote:Cool if this helps out as much as your defense rankings this will be good.

Not sure if you're taking suggestions on the formula, but it seems very very dependant on INT's, which are a much less critical stat in fantasy scoring (only -2 in most leagues).

In that list (it's supposed to be based on last year right?) I see a couple guys ranked below 6 or 7 other guys even though they had waaaay higher fantasy PPG.



The formula is rather dependent on interceptions, because eventually it will factor in the various secondaries that a QB faces... Once I get to that point, the propensity of a QB to throw interceptions will come into play quite a bit when trying to determine the overall likelihood that he will or will not have a good day...

For example, a guy like Kerry Collins who is prone to throwing picks might have some kick ass fantasy numbers when he's facing a crappy secondary, but might REALLY struggle when he is facing a secondary with some skill... SO I feel it is important to take into account a QB's propensity to turn the ball over....

ALSO, you have to consider that this list takes into account number of games played... Which means, when you look at total fantasy numbers over the course of the year, some guys that are higher on my list would be much lower looking on a total cumulative points list, because those lists do not take into account games played....

For example, Billy Volek only played 10 games... His cumulative fantasy points were mediocre, however, when you average those points out over games played, he looks much better....
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Postby chaindog35 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 11:08 am

interesting formula, i'll be interested to see how it works out.
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Postby FF Newbie » Thu Apr 07, 2005 11:26 am

I agree, Plindsey. Interceptions are weighted far too heavily in this formula.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 11:40 am

FF Newbie wrote:I agree, Plindsey. Interceptions are weighted far too heavily in this formula.



Why? The formula is based on the TD to interception ratio... That is to say TDs/INTs... What is wrong with that? I submit that there is a very strong correlation between TD to INT ratio and Fantasy performance... Please explain to me why you think there isn't... I'm curious....
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Postby chaindog35 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 11:56 am

I understand what they're saying Plindsey, they're just saying that alot of Qbs throw both alot of tds and alot of INTs and are good fantasy qbs despite the turnovers they make.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:07 pm

chaindog35 wrote:I understand what they're saying Plindsey, they're just saying that alot of Qbs throw both alot of tds and alot of INTs and are good fantasy qbs despite the turnovers they make.


Which is why I squared the number of TD's, rather than going with a straight up ratio.... So that QB's who throw a lot of both are still rewarded for their TD numbers, and not penalized so much for their interceptions....
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