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Working on a QB formula -- 2004 RESULTS!

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Postby no1cowboysfan » Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:20 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
chaindog35 wrote:I understand what they're saying Plindsey, they're just saying that alot of Qbs throw both alot of tds and alot of INTs and are good fantasy qbs despite the turnovers they make.


Which is why I squared the number of TD's, rather than going with a straight up ratio.... So that QB's who throw a lot of both are still rewarded for their TD numbers, and not penalized so much for their interceptions....


I like the formula. In a good game, a QB might throw one INT... which if any of you math wizards can figure out, dividing something by one stays the same... ;-)

In a game where someone throws 3 or 4 INTs, where it really counts on Plindsey's scale, chances are they aren't passing for 300 yards and 3 TDs. Therefore... the scale works.

Nice work as always.
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Postby disgruntledjetsfan » Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:48 pm

It doesn't seem right that Trent Green is at #10... He should be ahead of Aaron Brooks, thats for sure.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Apr 07, 2005 12:58 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:ALSO, you have to consider that this list takes into account number of games played... Which means, when you look at total fantasy numbers over the course of the year, some guys that are higher on my list would be much lower looking on a total cumulative points list, because those lists do not take into account games played...


I understand that, that's why in my post I said FF points per game. I was mainly referring to Harrington (10.75 ppg) being ahead of Collins (14.1 ppg). 3+ ppg is pretty large in FF, and that difference is larger than the difference between the #6 and #21 QB's on the list.

I still tend to think INT's count a bit too much, though I definitely see where you're coming from and I'm in much less of a position to argue that as you know a whole lot more about how the formula will work with secondaries factored in than I do. Based on the success you had with the defense formula, I'll take your word for it ;-D
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Postby mtryanks12 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:47 pm

What I would do is make a formula for who will do best fantasy-wise in terms of the secondaries instead of this more real-life formula. In real life, interceptions are worse than they are in fantasy. Maybe you could incorporate what a normal TD or INT or yard numbers would be in fantasy football intot he forumla, so then each category can be weighed like they should be.

I like the current formula you have now, but I wouldn't use it fantasy-wise beacuse interceptions are worth a lot, bringing up some guys like Roethlisberger and Brees higher than they should because of their low interception numbers.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:52 pm

This looks like a great project Plindsey. Just so I understand, the first step is to rank according to potential fantasy value right? How are you determining that? Won't schedule come into play?
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:58 pm

MadScott wrote:This looks like a great project Plindsey. Just so I understand, the first step is to rank according to potential fantasy value right? How are you determining that? Won't schedule come into play?



Well, assuming everything comes together, it will work similar to my defense rankings... That is to say, we will have statistics for each QB and statistics for each defense he is facing on a given week... After choosing the relevant statistics and applying appropriate modifiers, hopefully we can come up with a formula which will help to pick the best QB matchups every week...
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Postby houstonherdfan » Thu Apr 07, 2005 3:40 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
pdub wrote:are you surrounded by beakers and wearing a lab coat when you come up with these formula?

just wondering...


LOL.... Not exactly....

But, for those of you interested, here is the formula:


A = Passing TDs

B = Passing Yards

C = Interceptions

D = Rushing TD's

E = Rushing Yards

G = games played


Total score = [(A+2D)(A+2D)(B+2E)/(C)(G)]


This is a good idea being a math person I've never thought of something like this. You are a FF genius. A couple of suggestions.


I am assuming that you posted this here for both suggestions and information. This might be a tweek to your existing fomula (aplies the TD/INT ratio diferently).


[(A+2D)(A+2D)/(C)(G)][(B+2E)/G]

I would also suggest that you change rushing yards to a different factor maybe completion % x 100. If you are trying to figure out match ups vs secondarys rushing yards has less to do with the secondary than competion %.

As has been suggested the int skews things a little when taking FF vs NFL. Maybe use something like # of multiple INT games and then multiply it by a constant you have used 2 in the top maybe multiply this by 2.

These are a few things that poped out at me while reading the thread.

By The way either you got a job that is not very demanding or you just plain have too much free time. LOL
You could think of government workers like teenagers. You pay them an allowance, but do you get any work out them? They eat the food, put their feet on the furniture and complain loudly whenever they are unhappy.
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Postby Nilmerf » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:55 pm

Just so you know, if a QB throws zero interceptions.. the formula blows up.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Apr 07, 2005 5:19 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
MadScott wrote:This looks like a great project Plindsey. Just so I understand, the first step is to rank according to potential fantasy value right? How are you determining that? Won't schedule come into play?



Well, assuming everything comes together, it will work similar to my defense rankings... That is to say, we will have statistics for each QB and statistics for each defense he is facing on a given week... After choosing the relevant statistics and applying appropriate modifiers, hopefully we can come up with a formula which will help to pick the best QB matchups every week...
Let me ask you this though, and sorry up front, I'm just thick, there is going to be an initial leap of faith if you will based on overall fantasy potential correct? If so, what are you going to use to gauge that?
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Postby FF Newbie » Thu Apr 07, 2005 5:51 pm

no1cowboysfan, that's touchdowns and interceptions on the season, not per game. Plindsey, I'll have to think about your formula a bit more before I comment on it too extensively.
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