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Postby MadScott » Tue Apr 12, 2005 4:59 pm

I loved the read for sure Bagel and I do agree with all of the points that you made. That was a murderer's row of a schedule that he played last year and came out just fine. I'm going to play devil's advocate a bit though here. Did the fact that Palmer was a first year starter at QB enhance Rudi's numbers since they wanted to take pressure off of Palmer? Will a more seasoned Palmer help RJ or could they become more pass oriented?
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Apr 12, 2005 6:06 pm

MadScott wrote:I loved the read for sure Bagel and I do agree with all of the points that you made. That was a murderer's row of a schedule that he played last year and came out just fine. I'm going to play devil's advocate a bit though here. Did the fact that Palmer was a first year starter at QB enhance Rudi's numbers since they wanted to take pressure off of Palmer? Will a more seasoned Palmer help RJ or could they become more pass oriented?


It seems like the general arguement used is that poor/young QB's hurt RB's, so I would think that the pregression of the rest of the offense (including Palmer) would help Rudi more than it hurt him. He's a workhorse type back and they've had success offensively in running him a lot, so I don't think they'd change that too much.
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Postby MadScott » Tue Apr 12, 2005 6:30 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
MadScott wrote:I loved the read for sure Bagel and I do agree with all of the points that you made. That was a murderer's row of a schedule that he played last year and came out just fine. I'm going to play devil's advocate a bit though here. Did the fact that Palmer was a first year starter at QB enhance Rudi's numbers since they wanted to take pressure off of Palmer? Will a more seasoned Palmer help RJ or could they become more pass oriented?


It seems like the general arguement used is that poor/young QB's hurt RB's, so I would think that the pregression of the rest of the offense (including Palmer) would help Rudi more than it hurt him. He's a workhorse type back and they've had success offensively in running him a lot, so I don't think they'd change that too much.
Actually, I'm kind of saying the opposite, because he was young last year, perhaps they more readily relied on Rudi rather than passing. I'm just wondering aloud if his maturation is going to allow them or make them want to throw more now rather than run the ball.
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Postby hayesb26 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 8:39 pm

I've been saying for the past two years that Rudi is solid, yet nobody seems to be willing to listen.

I'm counting on him this season as my #1 running back in the NKL (helps when you have Manning as well ;-) ), and I think he'll do just fine. I expect about 1500 and 12+ TDs. That offense is just starting to get familiar with each other, and will improve immensely over the next couple of seasons.

btw, Perry is no threat at all unless Rudi is injured or misses any significant time.
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Postby MadScott » Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:40 pm

hayesb26 wrote:I've been saying for the past two years that Rudi is solid, yet nobody seems to be willing to listen.

I'm counting on him this season as my #1 running back in the NKL (helps when you have Manning as well ;-) ), and I think he'll do just fine. I expect about 1500 and 12+ TDs. That offense is just starting to get familiar with each other, and will improve immensely over the next couple of seasons.

btw, Perry is no threat at all unless Rudi is injured or misses any significant time.
I think this is where Rudi's value is the greatest. I watched one guy in our redraft league last season grab Randy Moss with his first rd. pick and then grab Rudi in the 2nd as his #1 RB. At the time, I thought his goose was cooked. Turned out, he made a good run at the playoffs, ultimately being done in by Randy's long term injury but he did continue to compete all season with Rudi in there. In drafting Rudi, he basically got 1st rd. quality in the 2nd rd. and was able to spend his 1st rounder on the #1 WR going into last year. In your case Hayes, you are/were probably more readily able to grab Rudi v. Manning so you could opt to spend the higher pick on a Manning and get great value with Rudi as your RB.
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:53 am

The major problem you guys seem to be overlooking with Rudi is that you NEED a touchdown EVERY week for him to be effective. He catches for 0 points every week like clockwork, so if you want to get into double-digit scoring (a must for a #1 RB), Rudi almost has to score a touchdown.

Fact is, Rudi is a boom or bust type player week to week and is not suited to be a #1 RB for your fantasy squad unless you have a Peyton Manning/Randy Moss to make up for it. How many times in the last two years has Rudi had multiple touchdown games? He'll have 2 or 3 monster games with 2+ TDs etc. to make his end of year numbers look good, but that leaves you with multiple games in season where he fails to reach paydirt. So unless he breaks 100 yards rushing in those other 6 or 7 or so games, you're looking at 5-9 points from Rudi...

<b>2004: 7 out of 16 games without a TD, below 100 yards rushing in all 7 contests. </b>

It's awesome to have your #2 RB contribute 20+ points in a given week, but it's very dissappointing when you #1 RB racks up 8 points because the FB or TE got the only goalline touchdown. He's like an Edge without the receptions.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Apr 14, 2005 3:59 pm

Kensat30 wrote:The major problem you guys seem to be overlooking with Rudi is that you NEED a touchdown EVERY week for him to be effective. He catches for 0 points every week like clockwork, so if you want to get into double-digit scoring (a must for a #1 RB), Rudi almost has to score a touchdown.

Fact is, Rudi is a boom or bust type player week to week and is not suited to be a #1 RB for your fantasy squad unless you have a Peyton Manning/Randy Moss to make up for it. How many times in the last two years has Rudi had multiple touchdown games? He'll have 2 or 3 monster games with 2+ TDs etc. to make his end of year numbers look good, but that leaves you with multiple games in season where he fails to reach paydirt. So unless he breaks 100 yards rushing in those other 6 or 7 or so games, you're looking at 5-9 points from Rudi...

<b>2004: 7 out of 16 games without a TD, below 100 yards rushing in all 7 contests. </b>

It's awesome to have your #2 RB contribute 20+ points in a given week, but it's very dissappointing when you #1 RB racks up 8 points because the FB or TE got the only goalline touchdown. He's like an Edge without the receptions.
I guess it kind of comes down to what kind of team structure that you believe that you can win with, but you are echoing pretty much what I'm saying. Drafting him allows you to go after a Manning/Moss combo, which, in many leagues is going to be a pretty tough combo to beat. If you can land a Manning/Moss and get their normal production, most weeks you are going to be pretty tough to beat without much from Rudi but if Rudi kicks it into gear, watch out as you should be near impossible to beat.

Also, he's not playing the same v. the rush schedule that he had last year so a bit of an increase in overall TD production isn't out of the question.
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Postby cardiac cats » Thu Apr 14, 2005 5:17 pm

what kind of leagues are you guys playing in??? :-o seriously, expecting to have manning, moss, and rudi on your squad is ludicrous IMO... hell, last year manning and moss were both 1st round picks in my league( 6th and 8th overall respectively).

Anyhoo, back to the topic- anyone have Rudi's official stats from last year --pass catching wise that is( I assume he had like at least 30 receptions)... reason is, I'm pretty high on Rudi for next year. We could easily see 1500 yds and 10 Td's.
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Postby mtryanks12 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 5:47 pm

Code: Select all
RECEIVING
Year             Team      G   GS    No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+   40+  FD
2001   Cincinnati Bengals   2   0   0   0   ---   0   0   0   0   0
2002   Cincinnati Bengals   7   0   6   34   5.7 14     0         2
2003   Cincinnati Bengals   13   5 21   146   7.0 17   0   0   0   8
2004   Cincinnati Bengals   16   16 15   84   5.6 30   0   1   0   2


gosh, I the code tag!
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 5:52 pm

cardiac cats wrote:what kind of leagues are you guys playing in??? :-o seriously, expecting to have manning, moss, and rudi on your squad is ludicrous IMO... hell, last year manning and moss were both 1st round picks in my league( 6th and 8th overall respectively).

Anyhoo, back to the topic- anyone have Rudi's official stats from last year --pass catching wise that is( I assume he had like at least 30 receptions)... reason is, I'm pretty high on Rudi for next year. We could easily see 1500 yds and 10 Td's.


It's Manning OR Moss.

1500/10 TDs was good enough for around RB #8 this year, but RB scoring as a whole was really down. 1500/10 might only be good for RB #15 or so this year.... Rudi doesn't have the 2000/10 upside like the other surefire first round draft selections.

For the record:
Rudi's reception totals: 15 rec, 84 yards, 0 TDs

Pretty safe to say that his is NOT a factor in the passing game whatsoever. Probably because <b>he doesn't play third downs</b>.
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