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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Apr 14, 2005 7:01 pm

Kensat30 wrote:1500/10 TDs was good enough for around RB #8 this year, but RB scoring as a whole was really down. 1500/10 might only be good for RB #15 or so this year.... Rudi doesn't have the 2000/10 upside like the other surefire first round draft selections.


Several points to be made here.

1. He went for 1500/12 last year, not 1500/10.

2. When has there ever been a season where that was only good enough for RB #15??? I mean, wow, I don't think I've ever seen anything like that, why do you that's going to happen this year?

3. Why doesn't he have 2000/10 upside? Have you seen his schedule this year? He subs the NFC North for the AFC East. That means he drops Buffalo, New England, and NYJ from last year and replaces them with Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay. In case you're wondering, of the top 5 easiest rushing schedules last year, 4 of them came out of the NFC North, that's how bad those guys are at stopping the run.

Remember, Rudi put up 1500/12 last year with the toughest rush schedule I've ever seen, and it gets a lot easier this year so I'd expect those numbers to go up.

And guess what, 75% of last year's 1st round picks finished with less than 1500/12 last year, that's 75% of 1st rounders.

What's best about all this is, not only can you get this guy in the 2nd round, but from most of the mocks I've seen, you can get him towards the end of the 2nd round.

You swing this guy at 2.09 where I've seen him go a handful of times, and you've got some tremendous value there.
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Postby cooleyhigh » Thu Apr 14, 2005 8:01 pm

Kensat30 wrote:<b>2004: 7 out of 16 games without a TD, below 100 yards rushing in all 7 contests. </b>


BAL (2), PIT, NE... what do you really expect from a back against these defenses? DAL, MIA are pretty formidable as well. Cleveland was the head scratcher.

I understand and agree with several of your points. The week 17, 3 TD performance against the Eagle scout team made his numbers look good.

I think the major x-factor is the defense. They were horrible and often forced the Bengals to play from behind. If the Bengals could get something similiar to the glory days of Dallas... pass for the lead and pound to protect you would see more consistent production from Rudi.

That being said there are very few consistent backs in the league, Alexander, LT, Dillon and ...? Rudi is a pretty safe bet in the 8-12 range where you can couple him with another 2nd tier back or top QB/WR.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 8:33 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:1500/10 TDs was good enough for around RB #8 this year, but RB scoring as a whole was really down. 1500/10 might only be good for RB #15 or so this year.... Rudi doesn't have the 2000/10 upside like the other surefire first round draft selections.


Several points to be made here.

1. He went for 1500/12 last year, not 1500/10.



I stand corrected, although 2 TDs over a hypothetical benchmark doesn't really change my opinion of Rudi. I was arguing more about total yardage.

Free Bagel wrote:2. When has there ever been a season where that was only good enough for RB #15??? I mean, wow, I don't think I've ever seen anything like that, why do you that's going to happen this year?


2004: 9
2003: 12
2002: 14
2001: 10
2000: 15

Here's how 1500/10 ranked in the past five years. Rudi's 1500/12 would have been enough to make him a borderline #1 RB in most years. But, last year there was a major decline not only in overall RB production, but also in the elite top end as well. Very low scoring year for RBs... Interesting how that coincides with:

A) 5-yard rule change
B) Emergance of TEs as a weapon
C) Many previous top10 RBs missed games due to injury/other reasons (Priest, Deuce, Ahman, Jamal, Ricky, F.Taylor, to name the 1st rounders alone)

I'm in the camp that believes this was more of a one year spike than a trend and that RBs will again dominate the scene next year.

Free Bagel wrote:3. Why doesn't he have 2000/10 upside? Have you seen his schedule this year? He subs the NFC North for the AFC East. That means he drops Buffalo, New England, and NYJ from last year and replaces them with Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay. In case you're wondering, of the top 5 easiest rushing schedules last year, 4 of them came out of the NFC North, that's how bad those guys are at stopping the run. Remember, Rudi put up 1500/12 last year with the toughest rush schedule I've ever seen, and it gets a lot easier this year so I'd expect those numbers to go up.



I've already stated that I believe that Rudi is virtually no threat in the passing game (evidence: taken out on third downs, less than 100 yards receiving last year). Basically for him to break 2,000 total yards he needs to rush for a HUGE percentage of that. We're talking a Jamal Lewis 2003 type season. You know the one where he nearly broke the rushing record?

That's why I compared Rudi to Jamal earlier in this thread. Jamal is also virtually no threat in his team's (non-existant) passing game, but he still gets to play on third downs. Not to mention he had one of the best O-lines in the league in 2003 including ALL-WORLD left tackle Jonathon Ogden. Most importantly, when I watch Jamal play, I see a top RB that can control the game all by himself. When I watch Rudi I see an effective RB and nothing more.

I simply don't think Rudi has it in him to amass those kinds of numbers based on both workload and talent. It's just not possible for Rudi IMO. It might have been different if he ran for 1,500 yards on 280 carries like Clinton Portis, but it took him 360+ carries to get in that range. That number of carries in itself is very difficult to achieve.... It doesn't matter what defenses Rudi plays in 2005 (Rudi has a tendency to do BETTER against tough run defenses anyways), but he simply will not break 2,000 total yards.


Free Bagel wrote:What's best about all this is, not only can you get this guy in the 2nd round, but from most of the mocks I've seen, you can get him towards the end of the 2nd round.

You swing this guy at 2.09 where I've seen him go a handful of times, and you've got some tremendous value there.


I have no problem with drafting Rudi in the 2nd round, in fact I did that in a couple of leagues last year. I do have hesitations though when you are talking about Rudi being a first round draft choice and a #1 RB for my fantasy squad. He just doesn't have the upside that most of the other top guys have.
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:23 pm

I thought they were saying he could be a viable #1 RB, but that you'd get him in the 2nd round, thus freeing up your first round pick to nab a stud QB/WR. Obviously, I wouldn't draft Rudi in the first, well maybe at the end of the first, but it depends on what is left.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:42 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:1500/10 TDs was good enough for around RB #8 this year, but RB scoring as a whole was really down. 1500/10 might only be good for RB #15 or so this year.... Rudi doesn't have the 2000/10 upside like the other surefire first round draft selections.


Several points to be made here.

1. He went for 1500/12 last year, not 1500/10.



I stand corrected, although 2 TDs over a hypothetical benchmark doesn't really change my opinion of Rudi. I was arguing more about total yardage.

Free Bagel wrote:2. When has there ever been a season where that was only good enough for RB #15??? I mean, wow, I don't think I've ever seen anything like that, why do you that's going to happen this year?


2004: 9
2003: 12
2002: 14
2001: 10
2000: 15

Here's how 1500/10 ranked in the past five years. Rudi's 1500/12 would have been enough to make him a borderline #1 RB in most years.


Given 12 teams in a league, it looks like 1500/10 is a borderline #1 RB, not 1500/12. Now, I'm assuming that when doing those rankings you're counting receiving yards for the OTHER RB's, which puts Rudi at 1600/12 against a much more difficult schedule than this past year, which puts him down where?


Kensat30 wrote:But, last year there was a major decline not only in overall RB production, but also in the elite top end as well.Very low scoring year for RBs... Interesting how that coincides with :

A) 5-yard rule change
B) Emergance of TEs as a weapon
C) Many previous top10 RBs missed games due to injury/other reasons (Priest, Deuce, Ahman, Jamal, Ricky, F.Taylor, to name the 1st rounders alone)


A) Did I miss the part where that rule went away? Same rule will still be there this year.
B) And why will that philosophy change? If anything "emergence" tends to hint that it will increase in the future.
C) And this is different from every other year how?



Kensat30 wrote:#1 RB for my fantasy squad. He just doesn't have the upside that most of the other top guys have.


Sure, he doesn't have the upside of a guy like Portis or Green that you might be taking at the end of the first instead, but to me he doesn't have the floor either. I mean with guys like Portis, Green, etc around there they have already shown you just how bad they can be. Maybe you don't want to rely on 1600/12 from your #1 RB, but I'd much rather rely on that than Mr. "what's an endzone" Portis or Mr. "I scored less than 5 points in 25% of my games last year" Green.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:44 pm

maddog60 wrote:I thought they were saying he could be a viable #1 RB, but that you'd get him in the 2nd round,


Right, my main point is that I see people picking at 2.03 and beyond passing on this guy, and I just don't see how that's possible unless someone really great has fallen down there.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:23 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:1500/10 TDs was good enough for around RB #8 this year, but RB scoring as a whole was really down. 1500/10 might only be good for RB #15 or so this year.... Rudi doesn't have the 2000/10 upside like the other surefire first round draft selections.


Several points to be made here.

1. He went for 1500/12 last year, not 1500/10.



I stand corrected, although 2 TDs over a hypothetical benchmark doesn't really change my opinion of Rudi. I was arguing more about total yardage.


2. When has there ever been a season where that was only good enough for RB #15??? I mean, wow, I don't think I've ever seen anything like that, why do you that's going to happen this year?


2004: 9
2003: 12
2002: 14
2001: 10
2000: 15

Here's how 1500/10 ranked in the past five years. Rudi's 1500/12 would have been enough to make him a borderline #1 RB in most years.


Given 12 teams in a league, it looks like 1500/10 is a borderline #1 RB, not 1500/12. Now, I'm assuming that when doing those rankings you're counting receiving yards for the OTHER RB's, which puts Rudi at 1600/12 against a much more difficult schedule than this past year, which puts him down where?



Rudi rushed for less than 1500 yards and received for less than 100 yards, he did not reach 1600 yards. If you look at his garbage game in week 17 against Philadelphia Eagle's backups, Rudi was right on pace to hit that 1500/10 benchmark. His 3 TDs in that game (his 2nd multiple TD game of the season), pushed him over the hypothetical benchmark I set. What difference is 50 yards and a TD or 2 over the course of an entire season anyway, especially when it all comes in week 17 against backups. That is really nitpicking and besides my point anyways.

My point is that Rudi doesn't have it in him to break 2,000 total yards, and that's a full 50 points above the 1500/10 we're talking about here. Even if Rudi put up 1600 yards, he would need to score 19 TDs on the season to get into the range that I'm talking about. And many other RBs are fully capable of breaking 2,000 total yards because they can catch the ball for 400 and 500+ yards.

What does it matter that Rudi plays an easier perceived schedule in 2005 if he carried the ball 360+ times last season? You know how difficult it is to carry the ball 360+ times at all, let alone in back to back seasons? I would wager there is an 80% chance that he carries less than 350 times next season... I'll be generous and give Rudi 150 receiving yards next year on 20 catches... For Rudi to break 2,000 total yards he would need to rush for 5.3 yards per carry at 350 carries to get in that range.... I'll give you 2 to 1 odds on whatever monetary amount you want to bet that that is not going to happen.


Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:But, last year there was a major decline not only in overall RB production, but also in the elite top end as well.Very low scoring year for RBs... Interesting how that coincides with :

A) 5-yard rule change
B) Emergance of TEs as a weapon
C) Many previous top10 RBs missed games due to injury/other reasons (Priest, Deuce, Ahman, Jamal, Ricky, F.Taylor, to name the 1st rounders alone)





A) Did I miss the part where that rule went away? Same rule will still be there this year.
B) And why will that philosophy change? If anything "emergence" tends to hint that it will increase in the future.
C) And this is different from every other year how?



A) In other years where there have been changes that put an emphasis on offensive scoring, points were up that year and down the following year.

B) One year is not a trend in my book, by that same token I don't think Manning will even approach 40 TDs next season.

C) Look at the names on that list I posted, those guys are all repeat top10 and even top5 performers. There were a lot more injuries to top RBs than I have witnessed in all my years of fantasy football in 2004. Only 3 RBs drafted in top10 on average even remotely lived up to draft expectations: LT, SA, and Edge. Notice how those guys are all top5 picks again this year just because they managed to play all 16 games?

If and when those other top players are able to stay healthy this year, I forsee a major increase in RB scoring overall, pushing down the borderline performers. The average ranking of 1500/10 over the past five years was RB#12, yet last year it would have equalled RB#9, 25% below the average and the lowest in five years.


Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:#1 RB for my fantasy squad. He just doesn't have the upside that most of the other top guys have.



Sure, he doesn't have the upside of a guy like Portis or Green that you might be taking at the end of the first instead, but to me he doesn't have the floor either. I mean with guys like Portis, Green, etc around there they have already shown you just how bad they can be. Maybe you don't want to rely on 1600/12 from your #1 RB, but I'd much rather rely on that than Mr. "what's an endzone" Portis or Mr. "I scored less than 5 points in 25% of my games last year" Green.


Have we seen the floor on Rudi yet? Last year turned out pretty damn good if you ask me. 360+ carries, no Chris Perry in sight, no injuries whatsoever. By all respects he had a very good year. Is Rudi immune to minor nagging injuries or poor play from his team? He has the same risks as anybody else if you ask me.
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