I kn0ow this is belated, but I hope a happy father's day was had by all. For me the kids are too young to be aware of the big event, But my GF more than made up for it. There is just something about breakfast in bed and more loving than this man could ever deserve.
I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
Hall of Fame Hero
(Past Year: 112)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows
I know these type questions/threads are usually meant for other forums, but I am just wondering what this group thinks about this.
I was really excited about Rudi this year, and I thought that he would be due to break out for a number of reasons. An improving good young QB, great WRs, and a good O-line, along with a pretty decent defense. I can see Cincy having a pretty decent year even though they have a pretty tough schedule. But even with their tough sched, it is mostly against teams that are defensively oriented, so Cincy will still be more apt to run anyway.
But as I looked further into him and his stats, he really scares me. He may still have that "breakout" year, but if you look into his season a little more, he isn't coming up entirely roses.
You take away that one game against the lowly Browns, and you have a guy who finished with just 1252 yards, and 10 TDs, and a very terrible 3.7 ypc. There is no doubt Rudi is getting his share of the ball, and I know that ypc do not count in FF, but that is close to a guy who may have a hard time keeping his job. Enter the possibility of Chris Perry. I am not saying that Rudi is going to split time or anything like that, but if he continues to get three and a half yards a carry, there comes a time when the coach has to look at his options.
If you also throw away his week 17 performance (since it was against 2nd and 3rd stringers, and most leagues do not play in week 17 anyway), you erode his stats to an even more disappointing 1153 yards, and 7TDs in 14 games.
Even if you want to say that all that matters in FF, is the bottom line, not ypc, etc. Consider this. If he is going to be your #1 back, with last years stats and normal fantasy scoring, he would have given you a paltry 2 games over 20 points (both of which were against the previously mentioned teams), and 8 games in single digits.
The reason I am bringing this up is Rudi seems to be rated pretty high on people's draft boards, and am just thinking it may be a little too optimistic to expect that much from him. Is he worth having as your #1? I'm thinking he is worth that #2 spot on a roster but could really disappoint if he were your main guy.
I really like Rudi this year. He didnt have a bad year last year, he was keyed on alot because teams knew that Palmer was not going to beat them. Palmer has a year under his belt and has had time to gel with the offence. Johnson finished last year strong. If you look at his stats last year he had 5- 100 yard games, and topped 85 yards rushing nine times. He also found the endzone at least one time in nine games. He also set a new cinci rushing record with 1454 yards. If and all of us Lions fans can relate to this, Palmer steps up his game, Johnson will have alot more room to run. Although his ypc average is somewhat low, to my figues it was 4.0(361 attempts for 1454yards), that really means nothing more to me than like i stated earlier the Ds were keyed on stoppin Rudi and making Palmer beat them. He has been taken a bit early from alot of the mocks i have seen, but he does have alot of upside. He is the only true back in Cinci which is good, Chris Perry is a non factor to me in Cinci. Even if Perry comes back from his hernias healthy, i have season tickets for Michigan and seen Perry play alot, he will never be a feature back in the NFL. As far as a first or second back to me, Rudi in the end of round one in a 12 team draft sounds about right to me.I would take another solid back in the second if i were to take Rudi in the first.
"DAMMIT!!!!! I knew it, I knew it, I KNEW IT!!!!"-Immortal words of The Captain
I agree with a lot of the points made by MSB. I would not mind having him as my #1, he has gone a little higher than I would take him but nonetheless I think he will be very consistant and give you a good scoring average this season.
I find that interesting. Not that I am that down on Rudi, I just think it is worth the look.
Tiki Barber has close to the same ADP, but seems to be a guy that is on the other side of the spectrum. Again, I am in that group that thinks that Tiki shouldn't have that great of a year, or at least not a career year, but why wouldn't he be worth the consideration over Rudi in a re-draft.
He showed A LOT more consistency throughout the year, and scored 15 total TDs, with a terrible o-line (that should be improved), and QB issues with Warner, and Eli going through rookie growing pains. Even though he is 30 this year, don't you think he would be a better option at least for just this year? Last year there were quite a few RBs that threw away the age myth, and had great years (Bettis, Emmitt, Dillon, pre-injury Holmes, CMartin, etc).