I know Free Bagel has researched and mentioned quite a bit that the average 5th/6th round pick has a failure rate in the 75% range. If that's the case, why not go with a stud Defense? At that point in the draft, you know that you could easily grab a BALT, PITT, BUFF or NE defense, why not go for the slam dunk and then grab that guy that may or may not bust in the later rounds. In that way, if he craps out, well, guess what, it wasn't a wasted 5/6 rd. pick, you blew a 8/9 rd. pick instead. If he hits, more power to you.
Want to hear your thoughts.
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Very interesting concept, last year my 5th round pick was Santana Moss who was a huge bust, I'm sure all 4 of those defenses out scored Santana by a boat load. But on the other hand, you can still get many quality players that don't bust in the 5th/6th round. You can still get upper tier guys. Peculiar.
My 5th round pcik last year was Michael Bennett if I'm not mistaken and we all know how that went but like packerattack said, there are still several players you can pick that don't bust but if you want to take the safer route even though you can probably pick one of those Ds later then go ahead maybe it'll work
Defences are flakey. I wouldn't risk a pick higher than the 9th round on one because you never know what they will do. Team Ds like Miami and the Bucs finish in the top three one year just to fall into oblivion the next.
The one exception is the Ravens. You know with their personnel that they will be a dominant must start every week this year. With Reed and Suggs they would very much surprise me if they did not finish in at least the top three this year. I drafted them in the seventh round in one league this year and would do so again. All other defences are a crapshoot and should fall to the 9th + rounds.
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Actually, defenses aren't as flaky as most people think. Did you know the Tampa Bay Bucs have been a Top 10 defense for the past 6 seasons? The reason defenses SEEM so flaky is because you are basing it on an entire team, unlike the rest of your team which relies on a single player.
I don't think it's just that defenses are more susceptible to being flaky, I just think that things change more. It's not uncommon for a defense to lose 2-3 starters each season. Defenses just change more often. But, teams like the Ravens should be very reliable for the 2006 season.
(ATTN: This rule does not apply to the crappy Bills who are overrated and play a much harder schedule this season compared to the trained monkeies they played last year half of the season.)
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I personally do pretty well with those picks. I snagged Trent Green and Jason Witten 5 and 6, so if I can nail that one again this year, I wouldn't consider taking a D there when I can grab an up and coming Chicago or a much improved Minny D in the 9th-10th.
Another thing to factor in is the size of your league. If it's an 8 team league then no way, 10 team league probably still not a good idea, 12 teams the it's certainly more feesible, 14 and upwhy not take the gamblel. If you can grab a top 3-5 D, chances are they'll be more of an impact than a D would be if you waited 3-4 more rounds.
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Redskins Win wrote:Another thing to factor in is the size of your league. If it's an 8 team league then no way, 10 team league probably still not a good idea, 12 teams the it's certainly more feesible, 14 and upwhy not take the gamblel. If you can grab a top 3-5 D, chances are they'll be more of an impact than a D would be if you waited 3-4 more rounds.