Throwing an idea out...why not a stud D in the 5th or 6th? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Throwing an idea out...why not a stud D in the 5th or 6th?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:07 pm

davidmarver wrote:Okay, you just made this next comment in the other thread (Cleveland RBBC thread).

Kensat30 wrote:I wouldn't mind having Lee Suggs as a #3 RB if I have get him in the 6th or 7th round. Hopefully more news like this will continue to push down his draft position... doubtful though.


davidmarver wrote:Which one is it? So you would rather grab a potential RBBC back whose upside is limited than the best fantasy defense?


Question you gott ask yourself, would you like a combo of Lee Suggs and Atlanta (or similar) defense. Or Baltimore and Derrick Blaylock.

Personally I value a RB#3 pretty highly compared to some guys and will rarely past the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds without one.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby davidmarver » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:46 pm

I would much rather have Baltimore and Blaylock (though I wouldn't pick Blaylock) than Atlanta and Suggs.

With Baltimore/Blaylock I have an advantage in my starting lineup that you don't by having Atlanta/Suggs.
davidmarver
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 656
Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Qualcomm Gate C; Tailgating

Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:47 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Question you gott ask yourself, would you like a combo of Lee Suggs and Atlanta (or similar) defense. Or Baltimore and Derrick Blaylock.

Personally I value a RB#3 pretty highly compared to some guys and will rarely past the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds without one.


You're assuming that just because you're not taking a RB in round 6, you're gonna wait all the way to round 15 to take one, which isn't a fair assumption.

Not to mention you'd be very lucky to land Suggs in round 6.

And of course he looks decent now, like I've said before, the 6th rounders all do before the season. Last years 6th round RB's includes guys like Tyrone Wheatley, Steven Jackson, Eddie George, and Travis Minor. Not exactly guys that you're gonna bank your team on.

Saying "I can get xxxx there this year" is just pointless, because everyone looks good before the season.
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Postby Nfl Fan » Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:04 am

I typically do not take Defenses early, and the times I have have taught me that I was right not to do so!

Last year. Carolina had just gone to the Superbowl on the back of a superb D. The cheatsheets had them at #3. I grabbed them after Balt and TB were gone and guess what? They were a bust.

I've had great luck in picking up a hot Defense early in the year. Atlanta last year. Carolina the year before. There's always an unsuspecting defense that steps up out of nowhere.

Pick a defense late and watch and see which team is really bringing it after week two or three and pick 'em up.

My two cents.
Image
Yo, Met... thanks for the sig! GO DUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This NEVER gets old and neither does THIS!!
Nfl Fan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 6275
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 18 May 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: AUTZEN!!!!!!

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:45 am

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Question you gott ask yourself, would you like a combo of Lee Suggs and Atlanta (or similar) defense. Or Baltimore and Derrick Blaylock.

Personally I value a RB#3 pretty highly compared to some guys and will rarely past the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds without one.


You're assuming that just because you're not taking a RB in round 6, you're gonna wait all the way to round 15 to take one, which isn't a fair assumption.

Not to mention you'd be very lucky to land Suggs in round 6.

And of course he looks decent now, like I've said before, the 6th rounders all do before the season. Last years 6th round RB's includes guys like Tyrone Wheatley, Steven Jackson, Eddie George, and Travis Minor. Not exactly guys that you're gonna bank your team on.

Saying "I can get xxxx there this year" is just pointless, because everyone looks good before the season.


Read what I said again, I would be willing to pickup a guy like Suggs in the 6th round if he was there. But it is "doubtful" that RBBC fears would push him down that far. If I select a #3 RB earlier say in the 4th or 5th round, then I'm probably going any combination of QB/WR/TE in the 5th or 6th round. If I gamble on a QB, TE, or WR early I might throw RB in the 5th or the 6th in there as well.

I don't know if 5th or 6th round was brought up as the traditional point in the draft to grab Baltimore, but I know that 5th/6th is right around the dropoff for the "sure thing" QB options, the top tier of TEs, and the top20 WRs. If you don't grab one there, your QB is going to be more of a gamble, your probably are picking a sleeper TE 5 or more rounds later, and you NEED to pickup the sleeper WR option instead of going with sure production.
-----

If you're not buying the comparison between Baltimore/15th round pick, versus say Brett Favre(or Todd Heap)/15th round pick, I don't understand that at all. That is EXACTLY what you should be comparing when you draft a top defense in the 5th or 6th round.

If your draft stays the same regardless of where you draft a defense, then the replacement would be made in the same round you get a normal defense(15th). Otherwise what you're saying is that drafting a defense early throws off your entire draft and can't be measured simply by comparing a list of last year's 5th/6th round ADPs.

I don't know about you, but I don't draft players based on their ADP..... I wouldn't have touched half those players you listed last year in the 6th round.

Wheatley - no
Winslow - no
Burress - no
Steven Jackson - no
McNair - yes
Bruce - yes
McCarreins - no
Toomer - yes
Green - yes
J.Jones - no
Stallworth - no
Shockey - yes
George - no
Minor - no

Less than half the guys you listed would have seen my roster last year that early in the draft if at all.
----

I went through my main leauges from last year and pulled my 5th and 6th round picks and here is what I came up with.


Suggs/Favre (Atlanta defense 15th round)
Barber/Moulds (Chicago defense 16th round)
Henry/Bulger (Atlanta defense 14th round)

Those may look unrealistic based on last year's ADPS, but that is who I got in my drafts. Barber was there in the 5th as my #3 RB due to heavy penalties on fumbles (-5) in that league. Henry was drafted in the 5th round, while Mcgahee went in the 6th about 5 picks later. I laughed at the Mcgahee owner after the draft, but I guess he got the last laugh during the season.
---

Look at the value I got with those picks though. Both QBs I grabbed were easily top10 QBs at year end. Suggs was a decent #3 RB for most of the year. Barber turned out to be a top5 RB. Henry and Moulds were decent at the beginning of the year and then fizzled out. I did manage to trade Moulds after he scored touchdowns in the first 3 or 4 games for Darrell Jackson.

So basically Henry was my only true bust for the picks I made in those rounds last year. You can eliminate Henry and Barber based on their ADPs from last year (even though they were there in my leagues) and you're left with Favre, Bulger, Suggs, and Moulds. Two top5/top10 QBs, a viable #3 RB, and a viable #3 WR. How are you going to replace this with a player in the 14th, 15th, 16th round?

Now say I draft a defense in the 6th round last year and then adjust my strategy in the subsequent rounds.. Maybe instead of Favre or Bulger, I end up with a McNair or Pennington instead. If I bypass Barber, Suggs, or Henry (RB) who knows what is left on the board at that point? The only starters I can think of that lasted that long last year were Tyrone Wheatley and Travis Minor? According to your ADPs they were probably gone already anyways.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby benm3218 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:43 am

in a 2 qb / keeper league this is a moot point. but in standard 10 person league/non keeper i think the 6th round picks are going to be 75 - 80 percent chance of bust unless your league is very unintelligent. i am on the side of 6th round team d pickup if its ravens. you simply can't beat value of taking the best option on the table in my opinion after the 5th round.....
benm3218
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 719
Joined: 12 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Nashville watching Pacman get arrested again...

D's

Postby DraftDodger » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:37 pm

Cornbread wrote:

>>>
I agree with Mookie - the only D I will draft early is the Ravens. I believe they are head and shoulders above any other D - including PIT, BUF, NE, etc...
<<<

Corn, I think you're confusing real life and fantasy. Yes, if you gave all the NFL coaches the chance to take another team's defense and play it, Baltimore would probably be their overall top choice.

But there's more to a fantasy defense then yardage numbers. The Patriots' ability to confuse offenses leads to lots of defensive scoring opportunities, making them an excellent fantasy defense. They have a 'bend don't break' philosophy vs a 'Bucs stop here!' mentality, so their defense doesn't come off looking as dominant as one whose players think they're defending Hamburger Hill on every play.

I think the best per-game potential for high fantasy points is the Patriots D. It's like the Holmes vs. Tomlinson thing, risk vs. reward. Watch (and play on your fantasy team if possible) the Patriots defense in their season opener. They'll bend. They'll give up yardage, maybe like an untiltable pinball machine, but they'll also pick off Collins 2-4 times and we'll see some defensive players celebrating in the end zone.

Straight up, Baltimore's defensive numbers will be better. For fantasy points, I like the Pats.
DraftDodger
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 1400
Joined: 24 Aug 2002
Home Cafe: Football
Location: The Cafe

Postby davidmarver » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:19 pm

Kensat30 wrote:I don't know if 5th or 6th round was brought up as the traditional point in the draft to grab Baltimore, but I know that 5th/6th is right around the dropoff for the "sure thing" QB options, the top tier of TEs, and the top20 WRs. If you don't grab one there, your QB is going to be more of a gamble, your probably are picking a sleeper TE 5 or more rounds later, and you NEED to pickup the sleeper WR option instead of going with sure production.

There is no such thing as a "sure thing" QB option that late in the draft. 4 of the top 10 scoring quarterbacks in 2003 didn't finish in the top 10 in 2004. The top two, Manning and Culpepper, could not have been drafted in the fifth or sixth round. So that meant that 4 of the remaining 8 "sure thing" quarterbacks, that you'd have a possibility of drafting, completely flopped.

Kensat30 wrote:If you're not buying the comparison between Baltimore/15th round pick, versus say Brett Favre(or Todd Heap)/15th round pick, I don't understand that at all. That is EXACTLY what you should be comparing when you draft a top defense in the 5th or 6th round.

No it isn't. If you value eight or nine quarterbacks equally and there is six picks after your pick before your next pick, why not take the defense and grab one of the QB's who will no matter what be left with your next pick? You can't straight up compare picks because your drafting strategy after round six is altered by who you pick in round six.

Kensat30 wrote:I don't know about you, but I don't draft players based on their ADP..... I wouldn't have touched half those players you listed last year in the 6th round.

Wheatley - no
Winslow - no
Burress - no
Steven Jackson - no
McNair - yes
Bruce - yes
McCarreins - no
Toomer - yes
Green - yes
J.Jones - no
Stallworth - no
Shockey - yes
George - no
Minor - no

Less than half the guys you listed would have seen my roster last year that early in the draft if at all.

It's really easy to sit back and objectively say if you would have taken x or y player last season, but isn't that pretty lame? You can say whatever you want here to attempt to prove your point even though chances are you probably would have drafted over half the players on that list.

Kensat30 wrote:I went through my main leauges from last year and pulled my 5th and 6th round picks and here is what I came up with.


Suggs/Favre (Atlanta defense 15th round)
Barber/Moulds (Chicago defense 16th round)
Henry/Bulger (Atlanta defense 14th round)

Look at the value I got with those picks though. Both QBs I grabbed were easily top10 QBs at year end. Suggs was a decent #3 RB for most of the year. Barber turned out to be a top5 RB. Henry and Moulds were decent at the beginning of the year and then fizzled out. I did manage to trade Moulds after he scored touchdowns in the first 3 or 4 games for Darrell Jackson.

So basically Henry was my only true bust for the picks I made in those rounds last year. You can eliminate Henry and Barber based on their ADPs from last year (even though they were there in my leagues) and you're left with Favre, Bulger, Suggs, and Moulds. Two top5/top10 QBs, a viable #3 RB, and a viable #3 WR. How are you going to replace this with a player in the 14th, 15th, 16th round?

You're proving our point pretty well here. Favre and Barber are the only two that produced well for where you selected them. Bulger was the #10 fantasy QB last year, Henry did nothing, Suggs was a disappointment, and Moulds was the 28th best reciever. And you don't replace it with a 14th round pick, you do it with a 7th round pick who is practically the same risk as the other picks with nearly the same reward.

Kensat30 wrote:Now say I draft a defense in the 6th round last year and then adjust my strategy in the subsequent rounds.. Maybe instead of Favre or Bulger, I end up with a McNair or Pennington instead. If I bypass Barber, Suggs, or Henry (RB) who knows what is left on the board at that point? The only starters I can think of that lasted that long last year were Tyrone Wheatley and Travis Minor? According to your ADPs they were probably gone already anyways.

You just said that McGahee was left when you took Henry...he was probably left for you to pick in the 7th on at least a few of your teams. There was players left for you that could have been productive at the same risk as the players you selected early on.
davidmarver
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 656
Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Qualcomm Gate C; Tailgating

Postby Sixxgunn » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:22 pm

There is no such thing as a "sure thing" QB option that late in the draft. 4 of the top 10 scoring quarterbacks in 2003 didn't finish in the top 10 in 2004. The top two, Manning and Culpepper, could not have been drafted in the fifth or sixth round. So that meant that 4 of the remaining 8 "sure thing" quarterbacks, that you'd have a possibility of drafting, completely flopped.


I was able to get Trent Green at that spot as my QB1, in my opinion that is a much better pick than any defense. If you check his stats, Trent is the definition of a sure thing QB.
[url=http://imageshack.us][img]http://img170.imageshack.us/img170/1065/sixgunn7ao0rc.jpg[/img][/url]
Sixxgunn
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4887
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 20 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Who?

Re: D's

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:24 pm

DraftDodger wrote:Cornbread wrote:

>>>
I agree with Mookie - the only D I will draft early is the Ravens. I believe they are head and shoulders above any other D - including PIT, BUF, NE, etc...
<<<

Corn, I think you're confusing real life and fantasy. Yes, if you gave all the NFL coaches the chance to take another team's defense and play it, Baltimore would probably be their overall top choice.

But there's more to a fantasy defense then yardage numbers. The Patriots' ability to confuse offenses leads to lots of defensive scoring opportunities, making them an excellent fantasy defense. They have a 'bend don't break' philosophy vs a 'Bucs stop here!' mentality, so their defense doesn't come off looking as dominant as one whose players think they're defending Hamburger Hill on every play.

I think the best per-game potential for high fantasy points is the Patriots D. It's like the Holmes vs. Tomlinson thing, risk vs. reward. Watch (and play on your fantasy team if possible) the Patriots defense in their season opener. They'll bend. They'll give up yardage, maybe like an untiltable pinball machine, but they'll also pick off Collins 2-4 times and we'll see some defensive players celebrating in the end zone.

Straight up, Baltimore's defensive numbers will be better. For fantasy points, I like the Pats.


actually - Im just looking at this yr - what I am projecting more than anything. BAL actually upgraded their D on paper, and the loss of Brusci - the defensive leader - I see as being a major blow to NE's D.
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5924
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 6:22 hours
(and 39 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact