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Throwing an idea out...why not a stud D in the 5th or 6th?

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Postby Tiki » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:04 pm

Wow guys, wow! These are some really great thoughtout posts! Good to see in the swarm of posts some great reads! Mad props yall! ;-D ;-D ;-D ;-D ;-D
Keep it lit.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:40 am

davidmarver wrote:Part 1 of this Post (Gotta go to store, will finish part 2 when I return)

Alright, this is going to be a long post, but Kensat, this one is for you. While we, for the most part, have a disagreement in drafting philosophy, I think this post should help narrow that gap.

Before I begin I’m going to have to get you acquainted with standard deviations. Lets pretend that I average ten touchdowns per season with a standard deviation of three touchdowns. What this means is that sixty-eight percent of the time (68% is the benchmark for the first standard deviation) I’m going to score between seven and thirteen touchdowns, which is the standard deviation of three away, on either side, from my average of ten touchdowns.

This concept of standard deviations (which you can read further about online…just google standard deviation if you are interested) can be applied to ADP numbers to give you an idea of how often a certain player is going to be remaining on your draft board in an average draft. My thesis is that no matter who you pick in round six, you will be able to draft a quarterback (or third RB) with just as much value in round seven as you would have received if you picked a player from the same position in round six. This means that selecting a defense in that sixth round slot will bring back a much greater difference to your team than any other player you would have selected in round six.

Here are the ADP’s for quarterbacks based on a 12-team league with Normal lineup requirements:

Image

The ADP values show that three quarterbacks are, on average, drafted in the sixth round (Collins, Favre, Hasselbeck). What I want to show you is that in a lot of situations one of these guys is still left for your next pick; since that is the case, you don’t lose any value from pick six to pick seven (I will discuss the rest of “catching up” later).

Lets pretend, for argument’s sake that you have the seventh pick in round six (which would mean you picked sixth in the first round). At that point in round six, half the time Collins would be left and similar odds would remain for Favre and Hasselbeck. However, if you pick them, you aren’t getting very much value for that pick…this is where they should go. If you selected the Ravens defense instead, there’s a good chance that one of these three would still be left in the seventh, making them a good value pick. Lets calculate the odds that one of these guys would still be remaining.

Collins’ ADP is 6.07 with a standard deviation of 7.91. This means that 68% of the time he’s selected between picks 5.11 and 7.03. This means that 16% of the time he’s selected after pick 7.03. 16% of the time Hasselbeck is remaining after 7.08. 16% of the time Favre is remaining after 7.06. This is an accumulative 48% of the time (have to remember these are all rough numbers…standard deviations aren’t an exact mathematical function…these are based off a limited quantity of mocks) that one of these sixth round quarterbacks is remaining in the seventh round.

So we have a 50% chance that a sixth round QB will fall to you in round seven. This is simply for quarterbacks. If you view the standard deviations position by position you see that as the draft drifts into the later rounds (sixth/seventh included) that the deviations begin to widen. This means that come your seventh round pick a player will be remaining (either at QB, RB3, WR3, TE, whatever) that you could have spent your sixth round pick on. Instead, you drafted the most consistent defense in the game and still grabbed a player with as much value as what you would have drafted in round six in round seven.

Now a lot of people will think “couldn’t you have taken a player in round six who was supposed to go in round five, but fell to you in round six”. Well, sure, that’s feasible, but, judging by the standard deviations for the earlier rounds, it (a player leaving his mean) isn’t as likely to occur.


I understand what a standard deviation is. What I don't understand is your argument. I'm arguing that drafting a defense early will either:

A) Cause you to draft a very risky player late in the draft where you would have normally taken a defense

or (much more likely)

B) Causes you to adjust the rest of your draft around the defense you selected

Standard deviations don't apply here. IF you draft defense in the 6th round when you would have gone QB, it doesn't matter if you can an equal QB in the 7th round, you're still behind a player. The guy who went QB in the 6th round is free to grab a WR, TE, RB, etc. in the 7th round. You are stuck picking up a QB because you missed out on one when you grabbed the defense.

Now say a player that you are targeting is available in the 7th round after you drafted a defense(maybe a WR or who you feel is the last solid TE) you are choosing between that guy and the QB that fell to the 7th. Do you grab the value at QB or the guy you were targeting?

Say you grab that QB who fell, you now missed the WR you were targeting, you missed the last decent TE, the backup RB you wanted, etc. Or you grab the WR you wanted, now you missed the QB who fell.

For every pick you make after that defense, you have to get additional value out of your picks just to stay even.
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IF you grab a defense later in the draft say the 10th round instead of the 6th, all your positions are most likely filled already and you have a few backups as well, so you don't take as much of a hit. But in the 6th round.... there is just too much value on the board at other positions.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Jun 24, 2005 5:31 am

Kensat30 wrote:I understand what a standard deviation is. What I don't understand is your argument. I'm arguing that drafting a defense early will either:

A) Cause you to draft a very risky player late in the draft where you would have normally taken a defense

No, no, no. By selecting a defense we are avoiding a risk. We know that Baltimore will be a top three defense. How many other defenses can you guarantee to produce top five? And when was the last time seventh round position players weren't risky? Earlier you said that last year you would have selected Steve McNair or Amani Toomer in the sixth round (which was over where you'd pick the Ravens D) so certainly there is more risk involved with the selection of a position player over the Ravens defense.

Kensat30 wrote:or (much more likely)

B) Causes you to adjust the rest of your draft around the defense you selected

Standard deviations don't apply here. IF you draft defense in the 6th round when you would have gone QB, it doesn't matter if you can an equal QB in the 7th round, you're still behind a player. The guy who went QB in the 6th round is free to grab a WR, TE, RB, etc. in the 7th round. You are stuck picking up a QB because you missed out on one when you grabbed the defense.

You don't miss out, though. The standard deviation chart shows that one of those quarterbacks is probably going to be left. You don't miss out at one of those QB's.

Kensat30 wrote:Now say a player that you are targeting is available in the 7th round after you drafted a defense(maybe a WR or who you feel is the last solid TE) you are choosing between that guy and the QB that fell to the 7th. Do you grab the value at QB or the guy you were targeting?

Say you grab that QB who fell, you now missed the WR you were targeting, you missed the last decent TE, the backup RB you wanted, etc. Or you grab the WR you wanted, now you missed the QB who fell.

It depends which position offers the better 'value' pick. If a 6th round WR is left and there are a few 6th round QB's left along with a bunch of 7th round QB's left, I'd probably take the reciever because you're recieving 6th round talent in the seventh with the likelihood that 7th round talent will be left in the 8th.

You do allude onto a point I was going to make in the postponed part 2, which is that you don't have to take Baltimore's defense. If the draft isn't falling in the right direction (early QB run or something), then by all means take a QB in round six. Granted, chances are this won't happen to you, but nonetheless drafting Baltimore isn't an obligation.

Kensat30 wrote:For every pick you make after that defense, you have to get additional value out of your picks just to stay even.

This is where I disagree the most. By selecting the Ravens defense, in theory, you are adding two points or so, per week, to your team's score, with the addition of a few extra points accumulated at the beginning of the year if you did the 'wait and see' theory on selecting your defense. No third running back is going to add that amount of points to your team's lineup over the course of the season. His responsibility is two games, barring an injury from one of your starting backs. He may be five points better than the backup you'd select in round 12 (doing a straight 6th-12th round comparison if you swapped where you selected RB3 and defense), but since it only comes into effect twice, it doesn't nearly accumulate the point difference that the Ravens defense does.

Kensat30 wrote:IF you grab a defense later in the draft say the 10th round instead of the 6th, all your positions are most likely filled already and you have a few backups as well, so you don't take as much of a hit. But in the 6th round.... there is just too much value on the board at other positions.

There is less 'value' left in the sixth round in comparison to the seventh; I showed this through the increase in standard deviation across the board as the draft progresses. There is more 'talent' early on, but not 'value'.

I'll post what remains from part 2 that wasn't said in this post later on...I gotta get some sleep.
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Postby Recidivist » Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:49 pm

Every year it's the same: "Should I draft so-and-so defense early to give me an edge?" Um, no. NEVER, EVER, EVER spend more than a late round pick on defense. Seriously. Defenses fluctuate so much from year to year (hell, even from week to week) that it's not worth using a precious middle round pick on.

People who take Baltimore or New England or Buffalo early (I'm talking 5th/6th round early) are probably the same people who took Tampa Bay in the third in '02. I don't care WHAT defense it is. It simply isn't good value that early. Believe me, you'll be kicking yourself for passing over a J.J. Arrington or an Ashley Lelie. Grab Minnesota, Jacksonville or Arizona in the last two rounds and laugh all the way to the bank.
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Postby Azrael » Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:13 pm

Now Minnesota is an interesting defense. As bad as they were last year, they are completely off anybody's radar. But they've added Pat Williams, Napoleon Harris, Darren Sharper, and Smoot. That's a substantial upgrade to the D that no one is really talking about. A deep sleeper defense indeed.
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:30 pm

Excellent reading. And a very well done to Kensat and marver.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:23 pm

bellybrother wrote:Excellent reading. And a very well done to Kensat and marver.

Cornbread and a few others had solid posts here too...
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Postby bagobonez » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:41 pm

I'm not a big fan of playing matchups. I tried it last year, and it just didn't work out all that well. IN fact, I did some pretty extensive research on it, and determined that Minnesota and Washington had the easiest schedules and had the best matchups throughout the year. And it's not like those D's were terrible, they each had playmakers on them, but I just wasn't getting many points out of my DEF/ST slot.

FInally I picked up Atlanta off the waiver wire and started them the rest of the year and did quite well.

I know that that doesn't really answer the question as to whether or not you should take Baltimore in the 6th round, but I'm just saying I'm not a big fan of playing the matchup game.
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:44 pm

davidmarver wrote:
bellybrother wrote:Excellent reading. And a very well done to Kensat and marver.

Cornbread and a few others had solid posts here too...


Absolutely. I couldn't begin to list all the people who have helped me in the short coupla weeks I've been here. Big props to CB, V-Hawk, Plindsey, Evolution, Azrael, Mad Scott, Bagel, etc, etc. Way too many to list.
marver and Kensat were just the latest i had read and they struck me.
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