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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:12 pm

Yeah. Yeah. What TTTBone said.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:53 pm

TTTBone wrote:As FFootball guys, we all would like to see Faulk get out of the way, and see exactly what S. Jackson has. But in the real world, Faulk is still a viable offensive weapon. Great hands and vision, and his experience in the offense shouldn't be discounted.
For those drafting Jackson early in a redraft, I wish you luck. For those of you in a keeper, hang-tight.
Sure, Martz could easily be considered a coaching idiot, but Faulk still has enough skills that Martz would truly be an idiot not to utilize him.
RBBC this year, say 70/30 Jackson to Faulk rushing, and 70/30 Faulk to Jackson in receptions.

Yuck, then Jackson is overvalued in the 2nd round in redrafts. You can't expect solid numbers out of an RBBC like that. Odd that Kensat has an unfettering hate of Westbrook in his "RBBC", but Jackson in an RBBC with a much more talented and proven back is a good #2 with a chance to be a #1...
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Postby Free Bagel » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:12 pm

proKrastinate wrote:
Santacruzer wrote:I was one of those "unlucky" :-b Owners last year that grabbed Duce Staley last year. I was reasoning that the "Bus" HAD to be done. People have been saying it for a few years. I thought Duce was a bargain in the 4th round, allowing me to pick up some premiere talent in other positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I don't need to tell people how that worked out.

Don't dismiss Faulk just yet. He may be too old to be the feature-every down back, but he is not too old to still get in there and take a significant amount of time from SJax.


Wasn't Duce on the way to a 1600 yd season before he got injured? Can't remember exactly


Yep, Staley had 707yds rushing in his first 7 games, an average of about 101 yds per game. And it wasn't like he just had one big game to inflate those stats, he was right up around 100 yards every week.

Staley's biggest problem was certainly injury, prior to it he was on pace for a 1600 yard rushing season.
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Postby hayesb26 » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:51 pm

daullaz wrote:Some people refuse to acknowledge Faulk...is 32. Jackson is 21.

Faulk has close to 3500 touches. We saw last year he's starting to wear down. His number of carries from 1998 on: 324, 253, 253, 260, 212, 209, 195. This guy had an amazing career. He was one of the top RBs in the league for several years. But he's not that guy anymore.




Sure, he's not the top dog anymore, he's on the decline. But those lack of touches weren't exactly his fault all of the time. Yes, he was injured for a lot of it, but some games Martz would only be giving him 5-7 touches! That plays a big role in those numbers as well.


As far as this season, I really wouldn't touch either Jackson nor Faulk unless and injury arises to one or the other. Even then, with Martz's unpredictability, it may be more of a headache than anything else to mess around with those two.

If both are healthy, I expect a RBBC with Jackson getting about two thirds the carries, and Faulk getting used more in passing situations. Combined, they should be good for STL though. I'd say they'll be around 1300 rushing, 400 receiving and double digit touchdowns!
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Postby TTTBone » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:13 pm

34=Sweetness wrote:
TTTBone wrote:As FFootball guys, we all would like to see Faulk get out of the way, and see exactly what S. Jackson has. But in the real world, Faulk is still a viable offensive weapon. Great hands and vision, and his experience in the offense shouldn't be discounted.
For those drafting Jackson early in a redraft, I wish you luck. For those of you in a keeper, hang-tight.
Sure, Martz could easily be considered a coaching idiot, but Faulk still has enough skills that Martz would truly be an idiot not to utilize him.
RBBC this year, say 70/30 Jackson to Faulk rushing, and 70/30 Faulk to Jackson in receptions.

Yuck, then Jackson is overvalued in the 2nd round in redrafts. You can't expect solid numbers out of an RBBC like that. Odd that Kensat has an unfettering hate of Westbrook in his "RBBC", but Jackson in an RBBC with a much more talented and proven back is a good #2 with a chance to be a #1...

Yes, I do believe Jackson is being overvalued in most redrafts. Nature of the FFootball game. FFootball guys generally LOVE youth, and tend to undergrade vets, even in redraft leagues. Favre is old,dead meat, C-mart is meat, Bettis is dead, Tiki sucks...
Myself, in a redraft, I'd rather have Westbrook than Jackson this year.
Call me crazy. Go ahead, do it, but we'll look at the #'s at year's end and then we'll see how we stand.
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Postby Azrael » Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:22 pm

Kensat30 wrote:I don't see how Steven Jackson can be anything worse than a decent #2 RB this coming season. But he does have the potential to be a solid #1 RB for your team if everything works out right. I have him right behind Bell in the "guy most likely to break into the top5 out of nowhere" category.


Tatum Bell will make or break people this year. Right now he's anywhere from 20-22 back being taken, and all because of his health? If you told me every single back would play 16 games this year, Tatum Bell would be the 2nd guy I'd pick behind Holmes. Bell is easily a top 5 back as long as his health holds up and he's being drafted in the 3rd round.
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Postby VHawk15 » Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:41 pm

Azrael wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I don't see how Steven Jackson can be anything worse than a decent #2 RB this coming season. But he does have the potential to be a solid #1 RB for your team if everything works out right. I have him right behind Bell in the "guy most likely to break into the top5 out of nowhere" category.


Tatum Bell will make or break people this year. Right now he's anywhere from 20-22 back being taken, and all because of his health? If you told me every single back would play 16 games this year, Tatum Bell would be the 2nd guy I'd pick behind Holmes. Bell is easily a top 5 back as long as his health holds up and he's being drafted in the 3rd round.


Agreed. I, too, am one of the highest on Bell this year. I have him as about the 17th or 18th RB currently, but that is mainly because of the uncertainly surrounding the Denver RB's. I'm prepared to move him to a top 5 RB if he's announced the starter in August. The funny thing is, he'll still probably be drafted in the 3rd, or at best, the 2nd, even if he is the clear cut starter.
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Postby davidmarver » Sat Jun 25, 2005 5:07 am

You guys are lucky I'm majoring in mathematics this fall...number crunching like this is a nice warmup for what I'll be facing.

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What does this all mean? Well, basically I added up the number of carries Faulk and Jackson acrued last season and 'projected' them out for Steven Jackson based on the percentage of carries Jackson is going to recieve. For this I used his yards/carry from last season and his carries/touchdown ratio from last year (which is a little misleading, but still proves a point) since last season is all any of us have to go on.

Even if Jackson got every single carry this upcoming season (based on the number Martz administered to the two last season) Jackson would still only be the sixth best running back. This is only based on rushing numbers and it is reasonable to point out that Steven Jackson's participation in the passing game is far inferior to the elite, first round running backs in fantasy football. I must also point out that even if Jackson recieves every carry, a lot of the receptions he would see are still going to be taken away by Faulk because there is no way Martz excludes Marshall completely from his offense. Using more reasonable numbers, 80% and 75% for the proportion of carries we relegate to Jackson, we see he dips down to the tenth and seventeenth best running back based solely on rushing statistics. I still find those two proportions to be moderately high for a second-year player attempting to supplant a successful veteran like Faulk. Even so, these numbers still should do the trick; there is no way Steven Jackson produces top ten numbers this season barring a significant increase in his participation in the passing game or an injury (more likely) to Faulk.

Jackson also has many other question marks surrounding him. In order for Faulk to have the highest amount of impact as a reciever that he can, he's going to have to get a handoff every so often when Jackson is on the field. This is to keep the defense on their toes because Faulk, even at 32, still cannot be ignored. What worries me about Faulk getting a carry with Jackson on the field is that it now makes Jackson a run-blocker. I don't know about you, but I don't want one of my high draft picks run-blocking on two or three plays per game. Not only is that a big red flag, but also a likely scenario (much more likely than Jackson recieving 100% of the carries).

The other question marks to me are little more discomforting. Here's what NFL.com's prospect scouting report said about Steven Jackson last season (before I continue, I'd like to at least acknowledge that the 'positives' on Jackson did include being an "effective reciever", but that's yet to be seen at the pro level):
Negatives: Has great initial speed, but can be brought down when defenses initiate contact in the backfield (needs room to gain acceleration) … Good short area blocker, but does not always see the blitz develop and is not quick to locate linebackers when asked to block at the second level (needs better technique work to sustain) … Patient and uses his blockers well, but despite his leg strength, he does go down a bit too much when trying to squeeze through the pile (looks frustrated working in close quarters, preferring to gain room to be more effective).

Two things jump out at me:

He doesn't protect the blitz well, which most likely will mean a lot of the third down plays that could be draws (3rd and greater than seven or eight) will be given to Faulk since he's a much more experienced blocker. Draw plays are bread-and-butter yardage plays since, to be honest, the defense will concede six or seven yard runs since it's a long-distance situation.

The second thing that jumps out at me (much more serious) is that he "does go down a bit too much when trying to squeeze through the pile". Exit a few goalline opportunities, if this scouting report is accurate). This doesn't mean Faulk is going to see those carries, just that a lot of the goalline run plays may turn into play-action, rollout-type plays.

All of this considered, it's comforting to see Jackson drifting as late as he is. I have him eighteenth on my board, partially by default, but I can certainly see him disappointing that ranking this season. That doesn't mean he isn't talented, but there are far safer picks and there are picks with much more upside than Steven Jackson (like Tatum Bell, but I think that's for another post). It's safe to say you won't be seeing me spend a high-round pick on him; at least not yet.

EDIT: Before I forget, the Rams are definitely a better run blocking team than they are a pass blocking team (26th in sacks allowed :-o ), so the pass-block knock on Steven Jackson will come into play even more often since Martz will often find himself requesting that extra blocker.
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Postby Santacruzer » Sat Jun 25, 2005 7:11 am

Free Bagel wrote:
proKrastinate wrote:
Santacruzer wrote:I was one of those "unlucky" :-b Owners last year that grabbed Duce Staley last year. I was reasoning that the "Bus" HAD to be done. People have been saying it for a few years. I thought Duce was a bargain in the 4th round, allowing me to pick up some premiere talent in other positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I don't need to tell people how that worked out.

Don't dismiss Faulk just yet. He may be too old to be the feature-every down back, but he is not too old to still get in there and take a significant amount of time from SJax.


Wasn't Duce on the way to a 1600 yd season before he got injured? Can't remember exactly


Yep, Staley had 707yds rushing in his first 7 games, an average of about 101 yds per game. And it wasn't like he just had one big game to inflate those stats, he was right up around 100 yards every week.

Staley's biggest problem was certainly injury, prior to it he was on pace for a 1600 yard rushing season.

Okay, I suppose he wasn't that bad, BUT he once again he was injured. Isn't that the gripe people have against Priest this year - injured, and didn't finish the season?

And he only scored 1 TD. It was almost impossible to take as an owner watching Bettis come in for EVERY goalline attempt. I know that was what Bettis was around to do, but I thought Staley could have at least had a few tries!!!! I projected that Staley would not get pulled that much in the goalline situations because he is no slouch either at 242 lbs. Remember game 1, Bettis 5 carries - 1 yard - 3TDs!!
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