1st Tier vs 2nd Tier vs 3rd Tier, etc

[stomperrob]

There have been countless debates in here over the relative value of the various positions and when to draft. Most everyone agrees on the value of grabbing RB's early but after that there is little consensus. I crunched the numbers from 2004 from the leading point getters for std Yahoo leagues. I've broken down each position into groups of 5 and what that group of 5 averaged per game for the season compared to all positions. Below is a list of the positions and the pts/game average. (For example, the top 5 QB's averaged 17.1 pts/week and the next 5 QB's, #6-10 in the rankings, averaged 12.6 pts/week, players ranked 11-15, 9.8 pts/week and so on).

QB's: 17.1/12.6/9.8/8.4/7.2/4.3
RB's: 10.8/8.5/7.0/6.3/5.4/4.6
WR's: 8.6/7.3/6.3/5.8/5.3/4.8
TE's: 5.3/3.3/2.6/1.9/1.6/1.4
K's: 8.9/7.8/7.3/6.6/5.8/2.9
Def's: 11.1/9.6/8.9/7.9/7.0/5.8

These stats are open to interpretation as they do not tell the whole story. For example, it doesn't take into account that you need 2 good RB's and at least 1 good backup RB; whereas you only need 1 good QB. Injuries cost some of the superstars some starts last year and so their numbers are lower for the season even though their actual points per game they played in may have been respectable number. Some players produced better than expected while others underachieved and thus their predicted value this year is open to debate. This also doesn't show streaky players vs consistent performers (eg - you may have a WR who gets 3 TD's one week and then not score the next two weeks - his average is 1 TD/week which is respectable but in fact he only really helped your team for 1 of those 3 weeks).

Of the top performers for 2004, surprisingly few RB's cracked the top 25 (once again, these numbers don't tell the whole story as it shows their total points for the season and what that averages per game - for some, like Tomlinson who missed game(s) this doesn't reflect what their actual pts per game they played in was):
1) QB - Manning 356 pts (22.3 pts/week average)
2) QB - Culpepper 356 (20.0)
3) QB - McNabb 252 (15.8)
4) QB - Favre 222 (13.9)
5) QB - Brees 215 (13.4)
5) QB - Delhomme 215 (13.4)
6) QB - Green 206 (12.9)
7) QB - Plummer 202 (12.6)
8) QB - Brady 196 (12.3)
9) RB - Alexander 194 (12.1)
10)QB - Brooks 187 (11.7)
11) Def- Baltimore 186 (11.6)
12) Def- Buffalo 185 (11.6)
13) QB - Bulger 182 (11.4)
14) RB - Tomlinson 179 (11.2)
15) Def- New England 177 (11.1)
16) RB - Barber 176 (11.0)
16) Def- Pittsburgh 176 (11.0)
17) QB - Hasselbeck 171 (10.7)
18) RB - Martin 167 (10.4)
19) Def- Atlanta 164 (10.3)
20) Def- Cincinnati 161 (10.1)
21) K - Vinatieri 158 (9.9)
22) WR - Muhammad 155 (9.7)
23) Def- Indianapolis 154 (9.6)
23) Def- Philadelphia 154 (9.6)
24) Def- Chicago 153 (9.6)
25) Def- Tampa Bay 150 (9.4)

Now before someone misquotes Benjamin Disraeli, former British prime minister, let me state that I agree that "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics". So interpret these as you see fit.

[stomperrob]

And while I'm at it, how about a few more quotes on statistics:

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they don't reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital". Aaron Levinson
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp post - for support rather than for illumination". Andrew Lang
"Statistics are for losers". Scotty Bowman
"Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they don't say". William Watt
"Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of 6 inches". W.I.E. Gates
"Statistics - figures used as arguments". L. Levinson
"Figures won't lie, but liars will figure". C. Grosvenor

[MadScott]

Great stuff man! I think the top QB disparity was really highlighted last season by so many of the top guys having career, sometimes NFL record breaking years. Based on those numbers, it shows me that you can put together teams in different ways and still come out fairly the same.

[Pete123444]

i'm very curious what scoring system you used. could you enlighten me with the points given for;

passing yards,comp,int's,passing TD's

rushing yards ,rush TD's

receptions,recieving yards,rec TD's

def team scoring

thx,
Pete

[MadScott]

i'm very curious what scoring system you used. could you enlighten me with the points given for;

passing yards,comp,int's,passing TD's

rushing yards ,rush TD's

receptions,recieving yards,rec TD's

def team scoring

thx,
Pete

Standard Yahoo I believe, 50/6 for QBs, 20/6 for RB/WR/TE.

Def.=10 pts for shutout, don't remember the rest.
1pt/sack
2pt/INT/FUM
6pt/TD

[Pete123444]

I think this thread is more indicitive of how "yahoo standard scoring" stinks and should be avoided. Rather than how tiers work.giving QB's the same points for TD's as RB's and WR's is gonna put your QB's all over your top 25.

[stomperrob]

I think this thread is more indicitive of how "yahoo standard scoring" stinks and should be avoided. Rather than how tiers work.giving QB's the same points for TD's as RB's and WR's is gonna put your QB's all over your top 25.

Yes, I used std Yahoo scoring as stated at the top of my post - I used it because I predominantly play Yahoo and I know a lot of others here use it too. As to the concerns you expressed, they can be addressed by forming or joining custom leagues. For those who play the public leagues, as with any format you play, you must adjust your drafting strategy accordingly, taking into consideration the scoring system used. I just wanted to throw these numbers out for debate.
Anyone else wanna weigh in on this???

[noyz]

Once again we are comparing QB to WR to RB to TE to DF. Manning a C-Pepp last year blew up. However if you look at Mcnabb then Farve all the way down to Delhome (who I got in the 10th round last year) the numbers aren't that different.

In my league Baltimore is number one overall followed by the Bills and New England because of our scoring system. Does that mean I should draft them first? RBs due to scarcity is more valuable even though the stats say Alex scored only 12.1 a game.

[portisfan24]

Interesting figures. That shows me that the biggest dropoff is at QB and TE. The whole argument for running backs was position scarcity, but these numbers show that the top 25 running backs are pretty close, while the top 25 quarterbacks and tight ends aren't so close.

However, I think last year was a bit of a blip in the radar. Huge years by the top QB's may have skewed these stats a bit. If this were a trend over 3 or 4 years, I would have to start rethinking my strategy, but Im gonig to chalk these numbers up to an abnormal year. Either way, thanks for the insight.

[dream_017]

I agree that you can not go totally based on tiers, you have to look at scarcity as noys mentioned. There are 32 starting QBs with probably around 28-30 knowing they are staring the whole season unless they get hurt. Most leagues also only start 1 QB, there is more than enough to go around. The RBs are a different scenerio all together, most leagues have to start 2, if you are in a 10 or 12 team league that is 20-24, there are more teams with a RBBC or injuries to have to deal with. I also agree that yahoo scoring sucks