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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:12 pm

Im wrong often. The best touts in the industry are no better than 60%.

However - I was one of the more vocal people warning people away from Barlow last yr.
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Postby TTTBone » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:35 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Im wrong often. The best touts in the industry are no better than 60%.

However - I was one of the more vocal people warning people away from Barlow last yr.

I gave you 10 every-down backs last year in the post Marver brought up...
Now if Cornbread and I had one of the ten ranked at about 20-25, that tells you something.
Either we're idiots, or...








We probably overrated Barlow. :-b
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Postby davidmarver » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:44 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Im wrong often. The best touts in the industry are no better than 60%.

That makes one of you...I'll just wait for TTT to return from Splitting-Hairs Land.

But I do agree with your assessment, although I have found some gambling experts that I followed last year that hit 80%.
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Postby TTTBone » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:56 pm

davidmarver wrote:...I'll just wait for TTT to return from Splitting-Hairs Land.


Please...
You get offended, do a search, consciously distort my posts to try to support a false argument against me, and then try to demean my defense of myself by calling it "Splitting-Hairs Land".
Sad. :-t
I'm done here.
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Postby davidmarver » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:17 am

Dude, you criticized people for contemplating taking Barlow over Rudi last year when you, yourself, had Rudi slated to be in a RBBC. Just admit you shouldn't have criticized that person and I'll shut up. I was never offended by what you just, I just thought it was odd you would come out with such conviction that you never backed Barlow at any point in time; turns out you did back him up.
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Postby J2thez929 » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:39 am

davidmarver wrote:Dude, you criticized people for contemplating taking Barlow over Rudi last year when you, yourself, had Rudi slated to be in a RBBC. Just admit you shouldn't have criticized that person and I'll shut up. I was never offended by what you just, I just thought it was odd you would come out with such conviction that you never backed Barlow at any point in time; turns out you did back him up.


I thought topic of this thread of Willis McGahee? :-?

Bottomline, who cares!!!!! So what if he had some faith in Barlow last year. So what if Barlow turned out to be a flop. So what if nobody is right on every prediction or piece of advice they give.
If so, then they would be making millions on gambling!
Look, TTT is one of the brightest FF guys here and I respect his opinions. Just cuz he used the word "NEVER" in a post doesn't mean you needed to look up threads from two years ago to try and prove a point. Everybody's opinion changes and that is a good thing. If people stuck to the same ideas and opinions year to year, I would be saying to draft Marshall Faulk followed by Kurt Warner as #1 and #2! I'm glad my opinions have changed today :-b

BTW, I do give you a little bit of credit for taking the time to research and read all those threads ;-D
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Postby davidmarver » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:50 am

J2thez929 wrote:I thought topic of this thread of Willis McGahee?


About that...

I think I'm of the minority here who actually believe McGahee belongs in the top five for this season.

J.P. Losman seems to be the focal point of most of the arguments with the belief that his presence is going to hurt Willis McGahee's value. I think it's quite the opposite. Wouldn't having a rookie (first year starter) quarterback mean the Bills are going to keep the football out of Losman's hands? This works in McGahee's favor two ways: more carries, more dumpoffs (receptions). I always thought having a young quarterback was a good thing for a fantasy player, so to re-enforce (or rebuff) this belief, I decided to compile a list of first round quarterbacks over the last few seasons, with the statistics of their runningback(s).

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With the exception of Staley (whose goalline opportunities were stolen), each player's fantasy value increased the season their new quarterback took over. Yes, there are other variables that affect/account for the difference, but nonetheless, this is not bad company for McGahee.

Having Lee Evans and Eric Moulds on the recieving core, I think, will only help McGahee as well. They'll be able to stretch the field to at least keep the defense at bay. While by no means will this be a vertical-attack offense, I doubt it'll be as conservative as Pittsburgh's last season. What does that mean? Not too many 8-in-the-box defensive looks.

I think the most troubling aspect of the Bills team regarding McGahee is the presence of Travis Henry. Mike Mularkey may decide to 'showcase' Henry in the early going hoping to find a buyer before the trading deadline. If that happens, it won't be too earth shattering for his stock...maybe 150 yards and a TD or two subtracted from his totals, but he'll be there when it counts...the fantasy playoffs. Who really thinks the Bills will clinch a playoff spot before week 16? Certainly not I.
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Postby aussieboy » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:00 am

davidmarver wrote:
J2thez929 wrote:I thought topic of this thread of Willis McGahee?


About that...

I think I'm of the minority here who actually believe McGahee belongs in the top five for this season.

J.P. Losman seems to be the focal point of most of the arguments with the belief that his presence is going to hurt Willis McGahee's value. I think it's quite the opposite. Wouldn't having a rookie (first year starter) quarterback mean the Bills are going to keep the football out of Losman's hands? This works in McGahee's favor two ways: more carries, more dumpoffs (receptions). I always thought having a young quarterback was a good thing for a fantasy player, so to re-enforce (or rebuff) this belief, I decided to compile a list of first round quarterbacks over the last few seasons, with the statistics of their runningback(s).

Image

With the exception of Staley (whose goalline opportunities were stolen), each player's fantasy value increased the season their new quarterback took over. Yes, there are other variables that affect/account for the difference, but nonetheless, this is not bad company for McGahee.

Having Lee Evans and Eric Moulds on the recieving core, I think, will only help McGahee as well. They'll be able to stretch the field to at least keep the defense at bay. While by no means will this be a vertical-attack offense, I doubt it'll be as conservative as Pittsburgh's last season. What does that mean? Not too many 8-in-the-box defensive looks.

I think the most troubling aspect of the Bills team regarding McGahee is the presence of Travis Henry. Mike Mularkey may decide to 'showcase' Henry in the early going hoping to find a buyer before the trading deadline. If that happens, it won't be too earth shattering for his stock...maybe 150 yards and a TD or two subtracted from his totals, but he'll be there when it counts...the fantasy playoffs. Who really thinks the Bills will clinch a playoff spot before week 16? Certainly not I.



Great post.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:09 am

I think he's overrated because of his 4 ypc avg and the fact that his TD totals are a bit misleading due to the 4 TD day. While he could repeat a 4 TD day, I dont think he will anytime soon.

Also, the loss of Jennings to the OLine could be perceived as a negative for him as well.

I just think for him to justify a top 5 pick, he would need to improve on his YPC numbers in an environment that may not be as good as it was last yr - basically an uphill battle.

At the end of the day, whether or not Willis should be a top 5 RB should depend on what you think his TD totals will be because his yardage totals dont suggest a top 5 RB.
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Postby PSU All Day » Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:22 am

[quote="davidmarver"][quote="J2thez929"]I thought topic of this thread of Willis McGahee?[/quote]

About that...

I think I'm of the minority here who actually believe McGahee belongs in the top five for this season.

J.P. Losman seems to be the focal point of most of the arguments with the belief that his presence is going to hurt Willis McGahee's value. I think it's quite the opposite. Wouldn't having a rookie (first year starter) quarterback mean the Bills are going to keep the football out of Losman's hands? This works in McGahee's favor two ways: more carries, more dumpoffs (receptions). I always thought having a young quarterback was a good thing for a fantasy player, so to re-enforce (or rebuff) this belief, I decided to compile a list of first round quarterbacks over the last few seasons, with the statistics of their runningback(s).

[img]http://img185.echo.cx/img185/3455/qbs5rn.jpg[/img]

With the exception of Staley (whose goalline opportunities were stolen), each player's fantasy value increased the season their new quarterback took over. Yes, there are other variables that affect/account for the difference, but nonetheless, this is not bad company for McGahee.

Having Lee Evans and Eric Moulds on the recieving core, I think, will only help McGahee as well. They'll be able to stretch the field to at least keep the defense at bay. While by no means will this be a vertical-attack offense, I doubt it'll be as conservative as Pittsburgh's last season. What does that mean? Not [i]too[/i] many 8-in-the-box defensive looks.

I think the most troubling aspect of the Bills team regarding McGahee is the presence of Travis Henry. Mike Mularkey may decide to 'showcase' Henry in the early going hoping to find a buyer before the trading deadline. If that happens, it won't be too earth shattering for his stock...maybe 150 yards and a TD or two subtracted from his totals, but he'll be there when it counts...the fantasy playoffs. Who really thinks the Bills will clinch a playoff spot before week 16? Certainly not I.[/quote]

Using Tiki as an example of increased value in a QB's rookie season is very misleading. If you look at Tiki's stats you will find that they were horrible after Manning became the starter. He was great prior to Manning. After Manning started teams just stacked the line and made sure that Tiki didn't beat them.

I think McGahee will struggle early as teams load up to stop him. He will have a little more room than Tiki did only because Buf's WR's are much better than the Giants were last year (though Moulds is aging). McGahee is high risk high reward in my opinion. If Losman plays well then McGahee will have a huge year (top 5). If Losman struggles then McGahee ends up in the 10-15 range.

Rudi's 04 campaign is probably a good place to look to see where McGahee may end up in 05. Only thing is, I think Palmer and Johnson are far and away >> Losman and Moulds.

I will go with steady production of Edge, Lewis, Deuce (and of course LT2, SA and Priest) over McGahee this year.
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