[quote="davidmarver"][quote="J2thez929"]I thought topic of this thread of Willis McGahee?[/quote]
I think I'm of the minority here who actually believe McGahee belongs in the top five for this season.
J.P. Losman seems to be the focal point of most of the arguments with the belief that his presence is going to hurt Willis McGahee's value. I think it's quite the opposite. Wouldn't having a rookie (first year starter) quarterback mean the Bills are going to keep the football out of Losman's hands? This works in McGahee's favor two ways: more carries, more dumpoffs (receptions). I always thought having a young quarterback was a good thing for a fantasy player, so to re-enforce (or rebuff) this belief, I decided to compile a list of first round quarterbacks over the last few seasons, with the statistics of their runningback(s).
With the exception of Staley (whose goalline opportunities were stolen), each player's fantasy value increased the season their new quarterback took over. Yes, there are other variables that affect/account for the difference, but nonetheless, this is not bad company for McGahee.
Having Lee Evans and Eric Moulds on the recieving core, I think, will only help McGahee as well. They'll be able to stretch the field to at least keep the defense at bay. While by no means will this be a vertical-attack offense, I doubt it'll be as conservative as Pittsburgh's last season. What does that mean? Not [i]too[/i] many 8-in-the-box defensive looks.
I think the most troubling aspect of the Bills team regarding McGahee is the presence of Travis Henry. Mike Mularkey may decide to 'showcase' Henry in the early going hoping to find a buyer before the trading deadline. If that happens, it won't be too earth shattering for his stock...maybe 150 yards and a TD or two subtracted from his totals, but he'll be there when it counts...the fantasy playoffs. Who really thinks the Bills will clinch a playoff spot before week 16? Certainly not I.[/quote]
Using Tiki as an example of increased value in a QB's rookie season is very misleading. If you look at Tiki's stats you will find that they were horrible after Manning became the starter. He was great prior to Manning. After Manning started teams just stacked the line and made sure that Tiki didn't beat them.
I think McGahee will struggle early as teams load up to stop him. He will have a little more room than Tiki did only because Buf's WR's are much better than the Giants were last year (though Moulds is aging). McGahee is high risk high reward in my opinion. If Losman plays well then McGahee will have a huge year (top 5). If Losman struggles then McGahee ends up in the 10-15 range.
Rudi's 04 campaign is probably a good place to look to see where McGahee may end up in 05. Only thing is, I think Palmer and Johnson are far and away >> Losman and Moulds.
I will go with steady production of Edge, Lewis, Deuce (and of course LT2, SA and Priest) over McGahee this year.