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Postby creamdoorthirtyniner » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:07 pm

Methinks that Homey just schooled someone :-b B-) ;-D
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Postby Kensat30 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:44 pm

Supernick wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I read in an article recently that dimmed my expectations for Michael Clayton in '05. Granted he is already a solid option after his 1st year, but for those expecting massive improvement in year 2 should temper their enthusiasm.

Out of the last 20 rookie WRs who led their class in fantasy points in their rookie season, <b>95%</b> DECLINED in their sophmore season. Granted a lot of the WRs may have dropped less than 1 ppg in their scoring, but for anyone who thinks that Clayton is poised to take a big step forward (or even a small step for that matter), history is strongly against him.

Then again 1200/8 would be a step backwards for Clayton, so this is nothing to be too worried about. Just don't expect him to breakout and become a stud.


i'm glad, my topic got a lot of reactions. ;-D i don't care about this article that i've quoted, i'm sure Clayton is <b>one of those 5%</b> and he's not gonna slump.


Just to put this in context, 95% of 20 is 19 players. So out of the top rookie fantasy WRs in the past 20 years, there has only be one single WR who has improved in ppg the following season.
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Postby Heavyg25 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:06 pm

bagobonez wrote:
aussieboy wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I read in an article recently that dimmed my expectations for Michael Clayton in '05. Granted he is already a solid option after his 1st year, but for those expecting massive improvement in year 2 should temper their enthusiasm.

Out of the last 20 rookie WRs who led their class in fantasy points in their rookie season, <b>95%</b> DECLINED in their sophmore season. Granted a lot of the WRs may have dropped less than 1 ppg in their scoring, but for anyone who thinks that Clayton is poised to take a big step forward (or even a small step for that matter), history is strongly against him.

Then again 1200/8 would be a step backwards for Clayton, so this is nothing to be too worried about. Just don't expect him to breakout and become a stud.




That's an outstanding stat. 95%. I'm staying away from him if there's proven guys like Donald Driver or Darrell Jackson available.




That's a solid strategy if you're looking to just make the playoffs, and not really dominate your league.

Invariably the teams that win their respective leagues and have dominant seasons are the ones whose owners took risks during the draft and selected players based on predictions and potential. Every season there is a team that looks amazing on paper based on the previous seasons numbers, quite often it is this team that struggles to maintain midtable position simply because things change. If you're in it to win it, take a risk. Mind you this strategy may also result in you totally missing the playoffs,I suppose it depends what your goals are.

Anyway, i'd like to know if it's possibly to filter that 95% stat to only include guys that put up 1200 and 8 in thier rookie season (virtually what Clayton did), and weren't injured the following season. My guess would be that those would be the guys in the 5% minority.


I've tried it both ways, and taking alot of risks is a good way to sink your team. Risky players are risky for a reason; they have considerable downside. My goal is to make it to the playoffs, and from there, anything can happen. A guy like Darrell Jackson, barring injury, is pretty much money for 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's. Michael Clayton could exceed that, but what's his ceiling? Do you really see a guy like Clayton making a leap into the upper echelon and getting 1,300 and 10-12 TD's? I don't.

Look at all the stud WR's from last year, and the QB's they had.

Moss - Culpepper
Owens - McNabb
Holt - Bulger
Walker - Favre
Muhammad - Delhomme
Harrison - Manning
Wayne - Manning
Horn - Brooks

All of the QB's on that list had good or great fantasy seasons. THey were at least starting material. Now does anyone see Brian Griese starting for their fantasy team this year? I don't think so. Clayton will not have a stellar year. 1,200 and 8 would be his ceiling IMHO. I think the only WR that had a great year last year without a stud QB was Drew Bennett, and his season was fluky towards the end, and I think we all know it won't happen again.


I never saw anyone predicting Muhammad would be one of the highest scoring fantasy players last year either. Guess what? It happened.
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Postby bagobonez » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:31 pm

Heavyg25 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
aussieboy wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I read in an article recently that dimmed my expectations for Michael Clayton in '05. Granted he is already a solid option after his 1st year, but for those expecting massive improvement in year 2 should temper their enthusiasm.

Out of the last 20 rookie WRs who led their class in fantasy points in their rookie season, <b>95%</b> DECLINED in their sophmore season. Granted a lot of the WRs may have dropped less than 1 ppg in their scoring, but for anyone who thinks that Clayton is poised to take a big step forward (or even a small step for that matter), history is strongly against him.

Then again 1200/8 would be a step backwards for Clayton, so this is nothing to be too worried about. Just don't expect him to breakout and become a stud.




That's an outstanding stat. 95%. I'm staying away from him if there's proven guys like Donald Driver or Darrell Jackson available.




That's a solid strategy if you're looking to just make the playoffs, and not really dominate your league.

Invariably the teams that win their respective leagues and have dominant seasons are the ones whose owners took risks during the draft and selected players based on predictions and potential. Every season there is a team that looks amazing on paper based on the previous seasons numbers, quite often it is this team that struggles to maintain midtable position simply because things change. If you're in it to win it, take a risk. Mind you this strategy may also result in you totally missing the playoffs,I suppose it depends what your goals are.

Anyway, i'd like to know if it's possibly to filter that 95% stat to only include guys that put up 1200 and 8 in thier rookie season (virtually what Clayton did), and weren't injured the following season. My guess would be that those would be the guys in the 5% minority.


I've tried it both ways, and taking alot of risks is a good way to sink your team. Risky players are risky for a reason; they have considerable downside. My goal is to make it to the playoffs, and from there, anything can happen. A guy like Darrell Jackson, barring injury, is pretty much money for 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's. Michael Clayton could exceed that, but what's his ceiling? Do you really see a guy like Clayton making a leap into the upper echelon and getting 1,300 and 10-12 TD's? I don't.

Look at all the stud WR's from last year, and the QB's they had.

Moss - Culpepper
Owens - McNabb
Holt - Bulger
Walker - Favre
Muhammad - Delhomme
Harrison - Manning
Wayne - Manning
Horn - Brooks

All of the QB's on that list had good or great fantasy seasons. THey were at least starting material. Now does anyone see Brian Griese starting for their fantasy team this year? I don't think so. Clayton will not have a stellar year. 1,200 and 8 would be his ceiling IMHO. I think the only WR that had a great year last year without a stud QB was Drew Bennett, and his season was fluky towards the end, and I think we all know it won't happen again.


I never saw anyone predicting Muhammad would be one of the highest scoring fantasy players last year either. Guess what? It happened.


I'm not saying it COULDN'T happen, I'm just saying the probability of it happening isn't big enough to pass on a guy like Darrell Jackson or Donald Driver.
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Postby toofunny » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:30 am

bagobonez wrote:
Heavyg25 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
aussieboy wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I read in an article recently that dimmed my expectations for Michael Clayton in '05. Granted he is already a solid option after his 1st year, but for those expecting massive improvement in year 2 should temper their enthusiasm.

Out of the last 20 rookie WRs who led their class in fantasy points in their rookie season, <b>95%</b> DECLINED in their sophmore season. Granted a lot of the WRs may have dropped less than 1 ppg in their scoring, but for anyone who thinks that Clayton is poised to take a big step forward (or even a small step for that matter), history is strongly against him.

Then again 1200/8 would be a step backwards for Clayton, so this is nothing to be too worried about. Just don't expect him to breakout and become a stud.




That's an outstanding stat. 95%. I'm staying away from him if there's proven guys like Donald Driver or Darrell Jackson available.




That's a solid strategy if you're looking to just make the playoffs, and not really dominate your league.

Invariably the teams that win their respective leagues and have dominant seasons are the ones whose owners took risks during the draft and selected players based on predictions and potential. Every season there is a team that looks amazing on paper based on the previous seasons numbers, quite often it is this team that struggles to maintain midtable position simply because things change. If you're in it to win it, take a risk. Mind you this strategy may also result in you totally missing the playoffs,I suppose it depends what your goals are.

Anyway, i'd like to know if it's possibly to filter that 95% stat to only include guys that put up 1200 and 8 in thier rookie season (virtually what Clayton did), and weren't injured the following season. My guess would be that those would be the guys in the 5% minority.


I've tried it both ways, and taking alot of risks is a good way to sink your team. Risky players are risky for a reason; they have considerable downside. My goal is to make it to the playoffs, and from there, anything can happen. A guy like Darrell Jackson, barring injury, is pretty much money for 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's. Michael Clayton could exceed that, but what's his ceiling? Do you really see a guy like Clayton making a leap into the upper echelon and getting 1,300 and 10-12 TD's? I don't.

Look at all the stud WR's from last year, and the QB's they had.

Moss - Culpepper
Owens - McNabb
Holt - Bulger
Walker - Favre
Muhammad - Delhomme
Harrison - Manning
Wayne - Manning
Horn - Brooks

All of the QB's on that list had good or great fantasy seasons. THey were at least starting material. Now does anyone see Brian Griese starting for their fantasy team this year? I don't think so. Clayton will not have a stellar year. 1,200 and 8 would be his ceiling IMHO. I think the only WR that had a great year last year without a stud QB was Drew Bennett, and his season was fluky towards the end, and I think we all know it won't happen again.


I never saw anyone predicting Muhammad would be one of the highest scoring fantasy players last year either. Guess what? It happened.


I'm not saying it COULDN'T happen, I'm just saying the probability of it happening isn't big enough to pass on a guy like Darrell Jackson or Donald Driver.


If you take Driver or D-Jax over Clayton you're pretty much insane. =)
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Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:05 am

toofunny wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
Heavyg25 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
aussieboy wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I read in an article recently that dimmed my expectations for Michael Clayton in '05. Granted he is already a solid option after his 1st year, but for those expecting massive improvement in year 2 should temper their enthusiasm.

Out of the last 20 rookie WRs who led their class in fantasy points in their rookie season, <b>95%</b> DECLINED in their sophmore season. Granted a lot of the WRs may have dropped less than 1 ppg in their scoring, but for anyone who thinks that Clayton is poised to take a big step forward (or even a small step for that matter), history is strongly against him.

Then again 1200/8 would be a step backwards for Clayton, so this is nothing to be too worried about. Just don't expect him to breakout and become a stud.




That's an outstanding stat. 95%. I'm staying away from him if there's proven guys like Donald Driver or Darrell Jackson available.




That's a solid strategy if you're looking to just make the playoffs, and not really dominate your league.

Invariably the teams that win their respective leagues and have dominant seasons are the ones whose owners took risks during the draft and selected players based on predictions and potential. Every season there is a team that looks amazing on paper based on the previous seasons numbers, quite often it is this team that struggles to maintain midtable position simply because things change. If you're in it to win it, take a risk. Mind you this strategy may also result in you totally missing the playoffs,I suppose it depends what your goals are.

Anyway, i'd like to know if it's possibly to filter that 95% stat to only include guys that put up 1200 and 8 in thier rookie season (virtually what Clayton did), and weren't injured the following season. My guess would be that those would be the guys in the 5% minority.


I've tried it both ways, and taking alot of risks is a good way to sink your team. Risky players are risky for a reason; they have considerable downside. My goal is to make it to the playoffs, and from there, anything can happen. A guy like Darrell Jackson, barring injury, is pretty much money for 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's. Michael Clayton could exceed that, but what's his ceiling? Do you really see a guy like Clayton making a leap into the upper echelon and getting 1,300 and 10-12 TD's? I don't.

Look at all the stud WR's from last year, and the QB's they had.

Moss - Culpepper
Owens - McNabb
Holt - Bulger
Walker - Favre
Muhammad - Delhomme
Harrison - Manning
Wayne - Manning
Horn - Brooks

All of the QB's on that list had good or great fantasy seasons. THey were at least starting material. Now does anyone see Brian Griese starting for their fantasy team this year? I don't think so. Clayton will not have a stellar year. 1,200 and 8 would be his ceiling IMHO. I think the only WR that had a great year last year without a stud QB was Drew Bennett, and his season was fluky towards the end, and I think we all know it won't happen again.


I never saw anyone predicting Muhammad would be one of the highest scoring fantasy players last year either. Guess what? It happened.


I'm not saying it COULDN'T happen, I'm just saying the probability of it happening isn't big enough to pass on a guy like Darrell Jackson or Donald Driver.


If you take Driver or D-Jax over Clayton you're pretty much insane. =)


That's ok, I was insane last year when I passed on Priest Holmes and Clinton Portis for Shaun Alexander. But thank you anyway.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:55 pm

Why isnt anyone discussing TBs situation this yr?

Last yr Clayton got the majority of his production in one-sided games and losses

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6774/splits

This yr, they should be closer in games and not play in as many highscoring games (schedule analysis).

Also - with the addition of Williams, Gruden should incorporate more running plays and dumpoffs than they did last yr when they were forced to go with Pittman and an injured Alstott.

Im not sure if Clayton did have a bit of the Boldin affect working for him last yr - thats the point Im getting at.

I certainly dont expect Clayton to improve on his numbers last yr, so I'll just let someone else spend an early pick on him.
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Postby Keyser_WV » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:33 pm

Hasselbeck throwing to D-Jax (High powered offense)

Favre throwing to Driver (Hall of Fame QB)

Griese (Not Bob) throwing to Clayton. (uh. Risky)

Also taking into account what CBM and others mentioned means I would take Driver and D-Jax over Clayton without thinking twice.
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Postby sappisgod » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:12 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Why isnt anyone discussing TBs situation this yr?

Last yr Clayton got the majority of his production in one-sided games and losses

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6774/splits

This yr, they should be closer in games and not play in as many highscoring games (schedule analysis).

Also - with the addition of Williams, Gruden should incorporate more running plays and dumpoffs than they did last yr when they were forced to go with Pittman and an injured Alstott.


Yeah, how are we ever going to participate in ALL those high scoring games like last year? ;-7

In the highest scoring games we we're in last year(Oak, Carolina, SD, and KC) Clayton put up a whopping 336 yards. Thats 84 yards/game, only 9.5 over his average for last year. His only big game was against San Diego, a game which he dominated like any big time receiver occasionally does. And had 90 yards against KC, but he put up about the same in a 12-7 game against Arizona.

In OUR highest scoring games(SF, ATL, and overlapping SD and KC) he put up even less because he only had 15 yards against ATL and 66 against SF. 0 TDs.

Look at his best games. 145 against SD, 142 against STL, 91 against Denver, 90 against KC, 90 against ATL. We beat KC, we lost to Denver by 3, STL by 7, ATL by 10. And we were tied with SD until Griese threw to Donnie Edwards with 4 minutes for a TD. Your stats are misleading. The majority of his yards came in one sided games or losses? I'd hope so, we lost 11 games!!!

As for Cadillac, while we probably will have more focus on the run, Gruden still loves to pass. And Williams taking away PT from Pitt is a good thing for Clayton. Pittman is one of the best receiving backs in the league. Great hands, great routes. One of Cadillac's main question marks was that he wasn't a great pass catcher. Pitt was our 3rd leading receiver with almost 400 yards. You think Cadillac will put that up?

I expect Clayton to do a little better than he did last year. Break 1200 barely and 9 TDs. If Cadillac can be any type of rushing threat, it should help Mikey out immensely. Also if Galloway can stay healthy and effective. Not for the whole year, because that's be a miracle, but more that just the last five games like last year.

/rant
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Postby toofunny » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:23 pm

Boldin effect?

You mean he's a stud?

It's funny how people jumped off the Boldin wagon. Even though he was a top 5 WR (49 catches or so) in the last 8 games. But lets not stats get in the way of anything.
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